Pact of the Abandoned Witch

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#21

Thanks. Yeah, I just went back and re-read the line saying no bullet holes. I initially thought that odd because she also said that the ceiling was covered with one of Beatrice’s mandalas, so I actually thought it could be possible that the bullet hole was just painted over. Which of course makes no sense if you assume that Kyrie is the one painting it over.

Okay, fine, let’s go from a different angle. TsukiyoAlex is absolutely right that the gun shot was the thunder heard by Kanon and the siblings. Therefore everyone in the parlor and in the cousin’s room has an alibi. There is no accomplice, so if we assume Kyrie isn’t the killer but was knocked out by the sleeping pills, we just need someone to enter the room, kill Rudolf, paint the ceiling, put on the the duct tape and then ‘vanish’ somehow… Let me just spraypaint this whole story with blue in my best Battler-voice:

  • The culprit was still hiding in the room at the time Kyrie woke up!
  • When Godah left for the Guest House, he seems to be the only one out of sight of the other servants. At the time of the murder, Shannon and Nanjo were together with Kinzo, the cousins were together, Kanon was with the siblings and Genji was together with Kumasawa. Which means under the assumption that nobody is lying, Godah is the only one who could have committed the crime in the timeframe between 11.40 and 11.53
#22

Here comes the best part of this system.

I will accept this as a possibility, coupled with Alex’s explanation.

There’s just one tiny issue… and it’s your very next blue.

Gohda was seen in the bar area of the guesthouse by Shannon and Nanjo as they returned from the mansion - which would’ve been after midnight, which would’ve been after Rudolf was already dead. The mansion was, in addition, locked up at the time, so he couldn’t have returned to it, much less Rudolf and Kyrie’s bedroom.

Meaning that, if you want to go with the idea the culprit was hiding in the room, Gohda can’t possibly be your man.

#23

Except he could have left the window at the crime scene open. There was nobody awake to check that one.

Edit: Err, nevermind. I forgot if he had opportunity to kill people before midnight.
Let’s try a new one instead:
Shannon slipped out while Kinzo was having his episode. Kinzo was clearly not a reliable witness at that point so he didn’t notice. She went and shot Rudolf, then returned, but left the window open.
Later after going to sleep, she came back and hid in the room after taping everything up.

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#24

Huh. So he could’ve. I genuinely didn’t think of that.

Oh, well!

Let us say that the moment Genji locked the front door of the mansion, all of the entrances and exits to and from the mansion were indeed closed and locked! This includes the window to Kyrie and Rudolf’s room! Naturally, “the moment” here refers to the time Genji locked the mansion after Shannon and Nanjo. No deceptions there!

It’s not a terrible red to give, since I wanted to suggest as much in the story itself.

#25

Okay, then allow me to probe something:
From the time of the murder up until Kyrie woke up, someone used the door of Rudolf’s and Kyrie’s room to leave and re-enter it.

I’m thinking that the murderer applied the seal only after an alibi was ensured.

#26

I’m afraid this blue falls into the category of being too vague for me to respond. How would this change anything, if I were to confirm or deny it? It doesn’t solve the issue of the alibis - or the time of death, for that matter. Even if the seal was planted afterwards, what does it change? The murder still had to happen when it did, after all. And for that period, seemingly everyone has an alibi.

Therefore, you are free to assume whatever you wish. If you want to think the culprit did what you think they did, by all means!

#27

Mmh… Okay, I used to know what I was doing with it, but now I forgot. So I’m trying something else. Kanon’s narration from the moment he left Genji and Kumasawa in the kitchen is unreliable and he went to kill Rudolf instead.

From here on I can craft another theory.
I can assume that Shannon didn’t notice Kanon being in her room when she arrived there and slumped down in her bed. In your recap of the servants’ alibis she never mentioned seeing him and he was never mentioned again after Genji sent him out of the kitchen. Therefore I can claim that he spent the night in the sealed room

#28

Kanon’s own narration however puts him in the guesthouse well after midnight, when he himself witnesses the moment Shannon walked into the room. And at that point the entire mansion was sealed up, making it impossible for him to get back to it and into Rudolf and Kyrie’s room. Meaning he wouldn’t have been able to spend a night in it. So how would’ve the locked room been constructed?

#29

Ah, sorry. Umineko broke my trust in regards to every POV, so I was looking whether there were still any gaps even after your insistence that both are reliable.

Fine… Willard is going to rip me a new one for that, but how about: The butler did it! Kanon met up with the cousins at 11.53 and before that left Genji with Kumasawa behind. Nanjo and Shannon left for the guest house shortly before midnight, with Genji and Kumasawa waiting for them together, but it is not clear whether the two of them remained together afterwards. So it is possible for Genji to have committed the crime. He then sealed the window and left through the door, stored away the gun, pretended to go to sleep in the servant’s room to get an alibi by Kumasawa and then returned to the crime scene to seal the door and hide in the closet.

#30

The culprit was Genji. At the time the gunshot was heard, he should be cleaning the dining room with Kumasawa, but maybe he left for a while to get some cleaning products in the storage room, there was a gun there, he knocked on the door to Rudolf’s bedroom, Rudolf opens the door and is shot, Genji then closes the door and leaves, returning to his duty on the dining room as nothing happened, after all, he’s extremely good at not showing emotions on his face. Sometime before 8:15AM, Genji leaves the servants’ room and hides somewhere in Rudolf’s room after sealing it entirely, he entered the room because the door was either left unlocked or he took the key and put it back after entering the room a seconf time, after Kyrie wakes up, she starts searching the room while he keeps changing his location not to be found, after Kyrie leaves the room Genji leaves it too and keeps acting as if nothing happened.

#31

Agh, I have no idea how to efficiently quote while on phone: this post is for the two theories above. I’ll cut through both of them simultaneously.

When we’re talking about alibis, you can assume that once someone was in a group, should they have left it any point, that absence would’ve been noted. If it was not, assume they were in the group for the duration of the interval. In other words, Kumasawa and Genji did check the mansion after locking it up together, and Genji was in the dining room cleaning it with others for the duration of that interval. I guarantee you this.

After all, someone just casually just not being around their group due to some arbitrary reason not even hinted in the narrative defeats the purpose of this little alibi shebang, doesn’t it?

I also saw it mentioned in discord, so figured I should cut through this as well: The only guns on the island are indeed only kept in the gun room.

#32

Thanks. I wanted to ask about that, but then thought introducing a completely different gun would violate. Knox #8.

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#33

  1. While Genji was cleaning various places around the mansion, Natsuhi sneaked past him and stole a gun from the gun room. She hid the gun somewhere and returned to the dining room, where the story begins. After the adults’ discussion in the dining room was over, it was never specified she was included in the group, she could have, just like Kyrie and Rudolf, gone to her bedroom, while the other adults were in the parlor she picked the gun and knocked on the door to Rudolf’s room, she killed Rudolf and closed the door, it doesn’t matter if she left it unlocked or locked it and took the key with her. On the next morning, she wakes up earlier than Krauss and steals the gun room key while all the servants were agitated, she places the gun back on its place and returns the key to where it should be. Then she enters in Rudolf’s room, seals it with tape and hides, she keeps changing her hiding location so that Kyrie is unable to find her. Her motive was to pay back those awful sibling who doubt her husband and teach them a lesson.

  2. While Genji was cleaning various places in the mansion, Kanon stole a gun while Genji was cleaning the gun room. He hid the gun somewhere and, when Genji and Kumasawa are cleaning the dining room, once he otice his help isn’t needed, he goes to Rudolf’s room, after he knocked on the door, Rudolf opened it and was shot by Kanon. He then locks the room and leaves to the guesthouse, it was never stated Kanon was looking at the adults when the loud sound rang through the island, so he could literally be anywhere. In the morning, all the servants woke up extremely early and start running all around to perform their duties, during this confusion, Kanon steals the key to the gun room and places the gun back in its place, he then returns the key and hides inside Rudolf’s room after returning the key to where it should have been and sealing the door and the window with duct tape. After Kyrie wakes up, he keeps changing his location s that he’s not found by her. After she leaves the room, he leaves and resumes his routine, the servants got even more agitated because Kanon hasn’t been helping and of course they can’t confirm their alibis in the morning since they were all running around the mansion. Kanon’s motive was to put an end to the inheritance discussion, relieving that burden from Jessica’s shoulders, as well as teaching a lesson to that bratty Battler.

#34
  1. The adults claimed to have been in the parlor since dinner. The only ones who ended up leaving it were Rudolf and Kyrie. Had anyone else left before the group disbanded after midnight, their absence would’ve been mentioned. Since it was not, assume they were all together. Also assume bathroom breaks are not a thing.
  2. After leaving the kitchen, Kanon passed through the main hall and indeed immediately left for the guest house. Since I’m pretty sure that there was no other period in the key interval he was alone, this should shoot down any variation on this theory. I would’ve, under normal circumstances, simply called upon the fact that the narrators have been declared to be reliable, but I don’t have the story on me atm so I don’t have the exact wording to make sure if the story itself fully denies this. So instead of having to deal with the possibility of omitted time - let’s just go with this red.
#35

Sorry, but that doesn’t mean he couldn’t have headed to kill Rudolf, after all, one doesn’t have to “leave” the main hall to do that, Rudolf’s room is connected to it, and by not crossing the door, you’d still be in the main hall, plus, immediately still doesn’t mean he didn’t stay for some time in the main hall. I request that you repeat Kanon didn’t have the time to kill Rudolf between 11:40 and 11:53.
I’d also like to ask if you still have leeway to deny a correct answer, in other words, even if it’s correct can you still respond to it, or do you simply resign?

#36

Sure. Kanon didn’t have time to kill Rudolf between 11:40 and 11:53. I’m pretty sure the wording of the narration becomes weird if that’s the case anyway.

Not sure I fully understand your second request. There’s only one murder. Game ends when everything’s explained. And I’m the one that declares when everything’s been explained. I am under no obligation to say whether or not blues I let slide are actually the truth.

The best I can do is assure you I won’t needlessly drag the game on. Once I see you got the point, I’ll concede.

#37

Could it be that we only accepted 11.40 - 11.53 because we accepted that it would have been a cool narrative choice to have the thunder the siblings heard be the gunshot even when it was just ordinary thunder instead?

Just as a thought for the others while I start sketching a little timeline… the murder might have happened at any earlier time…

Finished the timeline. There is an odd gap of what Kumawa did between 11.40 and 11.45. After she helped calming down Kinzo at 11.35 she went downstairs with Kanon and agreed to help out in the kitchen in a chapter that says 11.40, but in the summary of the servants’ activities during the second day Genji notes that she helped them from 11.45 onwards.

Kumasawa killed Rudolf in that timeframe and returned after Genji was asleep to create the locked room.

#38

They got to the kitchen at 11:40 but they started working on the dining room at 11:45. She stayed in the group after Kanon left her with Genji and Gohda. Neither noted an absence, so she didn’t break from the group.

#39

What about the timeframe from 11.00-11.10 then? Kumasawa disappeared from Kanon’s conversation with the cousins at 10.40, asked Nanjo for help at 10.50, but then only reappeared at 11.10 in the servant’s room. I can claim that she comitted the murder in this timeframe!

#41

The culprit is Genji. Before he entered the kitchen at 10:30, it is claimed that Genji was cleaning around the mansion. Having access to the gun room, he took one of the guns from there. Genji knocked on the door, Rudolf opened the door and was shot by Genji. After that, Genji returned Rudolf to the bed. Miraculously, Rudolf didn’t die instantly, but instead suffered a delayed death and died around or sometime after 11 PM. Genji closed the door and returned to his usual duties. After 12:20 AM, once Kumasawa fell asleep, Genji first returned the gun to the gun room. Then he returned to the crime scene, drew the red symbol, locked the door and sealed the entire room as described by Kyrie. Once Kyrie woke up, she checked the room, but as Genji switched between locations she didn’t find him. Kyrie left the room and Genji immediately followed her and escaped the crime scene.