I’m very interested to hear what the thought process was behind this episode. Supposedly Ryukishi wanted to make this one harder than the last, but after hearing feedback from fans, he toned it down just a bit. I don’t know whether that was for the best or not, but I personally believe that this episode is weaker than Episode 2 in terms of story.
Granted, I will admit that this was also the most emotionally-fulfilling of all the episodes. Ryukishi didn’t take just a page from Key, he took several leaflets. Perhaps the part that interested me the most in the whole story was Beatrice’s struggle to understand what exactly being a witch entails. You could arguably say that this makes her weaker as a villain, but sympathetic villains are by no means bad, especially when they are as well-written as Beatrice. What angers me is that Ryukishi chose to throw away this development in order to continue the series. I mean, urgh…that twist ending… 
(Even worse, now she’s suddenly a pawn of Lambdadelta. I mean, what the heck?! You’re setting up Beatrice for failure as a villain, Ryukishi! Stop it! > < )
I really wanted to believe that good witches existed in this story. I think Ryukishi knew such a thing would spark in reader’s minds, but ultimately it threw a wrench in his plans to extend the series to the same length as Higurashi. I had an idea that this would be the case, so while I can’t fault Ryukishi, it makes me feel so stupid for actually believing ‘good’ witches existed in the world of Umineko (aside from Bernkastel, if we want to get technical 
).
What I can praise this episode for is that it made me much more conscious of the mystery aspect of Umineko. Beforehand, I accepted the magical elements since I was not used to thinking at the time (and I admit, thinking about the events and moral implications of visual novels is usually an afterthought; I read visual novels to be entertained, not challenged). So when Episode 3 came around, suddenly things started to make more rational sense. After piecing things together, I had a reason to suspect Rosa for the previous gameboard, based on her testimony of the witch’s death. Even now, I still highly suspect that Beatrice is affiliated with Rosa in some way, if she isn’t downright Rosa.
Then a different idea dawned on me. Just how much of each gameboard is different from each previous one? Is the culprit just as different as the methods and order of killing are different? While it is reasonable for me to suspect Kinzo as I had heard in Episode 1’s podcast (since he died the same way), there was a feeling in the back of my mind that maybe there’s a reason why certain episodes emphasize certain characters while others take a backseat. Not just to go into detail about their living situation and relationship with the other characters, but to go into reasons why they might want to kill the other people on the island. Then again, I may be totally wrong here. Let’s look at some red truths and other clues.
And then it’s never brought up again in the entire story. Why go out of your way to prove Kuwadorian exists if it doesn’t factor into the story at all? It can’t be flavor text, so I assume it has to be connected to the identity of Beatrice. Last I checked, the only two people in the gameboard who knew about Kuwadorian’s existence were Kinzo and Rosa (before the latter told the other adults about its existence). We can’t assume she actually told them if Battler isn’t there, but Ronove proves it exists, so this could be evidence that Rosa is acting as Beatrice. Supposing Beatrice did exist as Kinzo’s mistress, Rosa befriended her, and she fell off a cliff and died, Rosa could have very easily taken up the role as her way of securing the Ushiromiya fortune to herself. Furthermore, some of Rosa’s actions do feel synchronized with the witch’s sometimes, so it wouldn’t be out of the question.
Going back to Episode 2 here, while some people admit to seeing a 19th person arrive, Battler doesn’t actually see Beatrice until most everyone is dead. By then, any of the other 15 people on Rokkenjima (excluding Kinzo and Genji) could be Beatrice. Anyone and anything could be the culprit, so it’s surprising when this red truth pops up:
Note that she said this Rokkenjima. It doesn’t deny the possibility that previous gameboards had different forces at work which could have caused the deaths of every person on the island. However, if the goal for this gameboard is to identify a human culprit, this truth is actually fairly useful. It confirms, at least in this gameboard, that if the culprit is human, it is among the 18.
There’s a lot of red truths I could talk about, but I wanted to talk about a few in particular. Starting with this one:
Nanjo’s diagnoses have seemed kind of unreliable in the past. With Nanjo showing little faith in his own ability coupled with next-to-no idea as to who the culprit could be, I felt like ignoring Nanjo’s diagnoses to keep an open mind on how the murders took place. With a red truth implying that Nanjo’s been spot on with at least one of his diagnoses, it makes me think one of two things. Either Nanjo could easily identify how they died because he killed them, or he’s one of the more trustworthy, if potentially unreliable, sources of information in this gameboard.
Alright, here we go. Time to talk about the web of red truth.
Beatrice was incredibly close to revealing some red truths that could prove fatal to her position. Although there were some close calls, the game was relatively short on red truth for a good chunk of time. Then EVA Beatrice is brought in (seriously, screw her), and gives the double bird to any sort of strategy, cornering Battler in an onslaught of tightly-wrapped truth. I won’t go into detail about all of it, but there were a couple that I found interesting.
Doesn’t this implicitly disprove the existence of witches? Ryukishi made perfectly clear the difference between humans, witches, demons, furniture and the like. Looking at this red truth in that context, it’s a fatal move for the Witch Side that, for some reason, everyone seems to completely overlook! XP
Not that this gameboard wasn’t full of holes to begin with… ._.
Geez, I hate that face so much… > <
The only explanation for this contradiction is if Beatrice’s earlier storm of red truths would have revealed something crucial about the first twilight. Under the assumption that Kinzo used the same trick he used in Episode 1, he could have been there to murder Nanjo. On a different note, assuming one of the servants made it out alive somehow, say Kanon (since he was heard by Jessica), it would definitely be possible for Kanon to be the culprit and escort Jessica out of the room. But then there’s the contradiction of the deaths being proclaimed in red. This isn’t something I can solve with this post right now, but it is something I should come back to when I have a better frame of reference. ._.
One more point before I conclude my investigation. As much as I want to analyze the eight-digit number on the parlor, it’s like solving the mystery of RAB in Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince. I’ll likely have to wait for the corresponding Core arc to understand what it means.
My conclusion: While Eva is made to look like the obvious culprit, I have a feeling she might have been framed. If the same logic were to apply to previous episodes, it would definitely prove my theory that Rosa is Beatrice in Episode 2, but it would also mean that the true culprit of Episode 1 was among the children. It’s not totally out of the question, but it seems kind of far-fetched given the circumstances. I’m willing to believe that either Kinzo was the culprit, as seems to be the case for the previous two episodes, or it was Kanon, based on the argument I gave earlier. There’s no reason to explain why, not at this stage of the game, anyway. Some of these things may reveal themselves in due time, but for now, this is the best explanation I can muster given what I have just read.
Episode 4’s title card tells me the difficulty greatly depends on how good my strategy is. The question is, is my fledgling strategy good enough to proceed without too many issues? Only time will tell, and it may not be so before the seagulls cry once more.