Well… that is unfortunate. I kind of liked that theory. Ah well, no sense in getting attached to things. Let’s start anew. However, I would like to borrow something from my previous theory. That is, somebody (other than Beatrice from Rosa’s story) dying before the events of Rokkenjima.
A Brief Inkling of a Theory v.0.2
Thinking, again, about the red web at the end of episode 3 lets look at another possibility. Suppose that one of the characters was already dead before the events of Rokkenjima. Nowhere is it said that the 18 people we are told are on the island have to be the 18 people we think are on the island. Suppose that one of the people we think is on the island is actually not and is, in fact dead. The most likely person to not be on the island and have died is Kinzo. After all, Battler never sees him and I think that most of the scenes that he ‘appears’ in could be interpreted in a different way. If this was the case then might there be another person taking Kinzo’s place at the table, so to speak? It seems likely to me that there very well might be. This might give us an explanation as to whether or not there is a 19th person. As Battler puts it in episode 1, this person X is between the numbers. They both are and aren’t a 19th person.
Is there any evidence for this assumption? Well as I’ve mentioned before, Battler never sees Kinzo. In fact, almost no character gets to see Kinzo. Off the top of my head only some of the servants (specifically the servants who have the one-winged eagle), Nanjo (says that he plays chess with Kinzo in episode 2) and Natsuhi. There are also other people who are supposed to have heard his voice through the door. However, more often then not there is no response to people knocking on the door. Can we think of a reason why the servants might want to keep up the pretense of Kinzo being alive? Well, I can think of at least one reason: their jobs. We are told in the tips menu that the servants with the one winged crest are not trusted by Krauss and Natsuhi. However, because they are hired by Kinzo they can’t be fired. Therefore, as long as Kinzo is alive their jobs are secure. All bets are off, though, when Kinzo dies. If Kinzo died they would almost certainly want to make it seems like Kinzo had not. Another piece of evidence might be the first twilight in episode 3. The red truth certainly seems to indicate that Kanon, Shannon, Genji, Gohda, Kumasawa, and Kinzo died. It also says that nobody committed suicide. Beatrice seems to be on the verge of saying something like that nobody died by accident. I feel like there might be a little bit more to what she was going to say but we can only speculate on that. I’ve suggested before that someone might have died from natural causes such as Kinzo dying from his disease. If we go with the theory that Kinzo is already dead then this theory about the first twilight would flow pretty naturally out of it. There is another, kind of circumstantial thing that might also lend this theory some weight. Why do these events take place now? The epitaph had been up for a while before and the island had had more than 13 people on it before too. So why do all these people get murdered on the island in 1986? Before this theory all I could think of to answer this question is the arrival of Battler after his absence. However, now we can suggest that the real catalyst is the death of Kinzo prior to the events.
So, some implications and explanations are in order. First, if Kinzo is dead there are only about 4 people that necessarily know about it: Kanon, Shannon, Genji and Nanjo. One thing I might note is that all of these characters die in every episode (or at least seem to, I’ve still got my eye on you Kanon). If this is the case we might suggest that their death might be related, in some way, to Kinzo’s death and the cover-up. Now, I’ve also suggested that Kumasawa’s death is important seeing as it occurs along with Nanjo’s death twice and that it also appears to be the case that Kumasawa worked at Kuwadorian. It may be that this usurper knows quite a bit of the family history and wants Kumasawa dead for an older reason. Ok, what else? Well, as I said just a little bit ago, it seems like at least Krauss and Natsuhi don’t know since, if they did, Krauss would already be the head of the family. This would suggest that when Natsuhi ‘meets Kinzo’ in Kinzo’s office that she really does think that she is talking to Kinzo when, in fact, she is not. It even seems to hint this in the narrative since Kinzo seems to be talking in a very different manner than we would expect him to. Even Natsuhi seems to notice that he is acting very kindly, not at all like what she expected. He also seems to spend a majority of the time facing away from her. What do I suggest might be happening? Someone is pretending to be Kinzo, disguising themselves as him and fooling Natsuhi. This is all a trick to fool people about Kinzo’s time of death. However, when Eva and Natsuhi come back the person pretending to be Kinzo hid themselves. I might suggest here that they were looking for something in Kinzo’s room and that is why they did not try and leave the office for all that time. However, that is kind of a moot point at the moment.
Edit: Ok, this one I have to give credit to @pictoshark for pointing this out to me. It is possible that Krauss and Natsuhi either know or are involved in Kinzo’s death since Krauss may want to have some time to cover the paper trail that would have been left from his embezzling.
Now, inevitably someone is going to bring up the fact that Battler does see Kinzo at the end of episode 2. However, let us think about the scenario a little more carefully. I would like to propose a theory that some people might like to call a cop out. What if Battler dreamed the entire ending of episode 3? He had been drinking right before, right? Also I imagine that there is a fair amount of exhaustion with this whole event. Battler is unused to heavy drinking at his age so I feel like his passing out from alcohol and exhaustion is not out of the question. After having thought about witches and such all day I feel like a dream about all of the things that Battler sees happen would actually make a lot of sense. Does that mean he dreams the stuff with Rosa and Maria too? I’m not sure. But I would like to say, at least, that the part immediately involving Battler might have just been a dream about meeting the witch, Kinzo and Genji and having everything explained since he was so desperately looking for an answer.
So there is a little bit more of an expansion on my theory. Possibly I will work a little more on it before the tea party ends.