May I ask, @HeliosAlpha, why you are choosing to vote No Death? Did we not establish that doing so is to act in favour of the Sorcerer?
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Personally, I am slightly dubious regarding the people who have been completely and utterly silent thus far. @cjlim2007, @StarTurner, where are you?
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Like I said, I want to see who the demons choose next. Furthermore, weâve struck 2 landmines already. Assuming there are 2-3 demons, we donât have as much leeway anymore.
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Oh and in case I donât live to name my suspect, you better win anyway.
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In my defense, unless I voted for someone else, it would have been very likely that I would be killed. In the first day, none of us had any information, so we either choose someone randomly to lynch, or wait around and do nothing. Either way, with my name popping up first, I had the highest probability of being voted by the majority unless I proposed another name.
In my opinion, we should be thinking about this statistically. Lets go by Heliosâs assumption that there are 2-3 demons, lets choose 3 just to lay out our worst case scenario:
If we vote for another person randomly, we have a 3/8 chance of choosing a demon, and 5/8 of chosing a human. Then when the demons kill again, there is a 100% chance they will kill a human. Essentially, 3/8 chance we lose one human, kill one demon (neutral outcome); 5/8 chance we lose two (very negative outcome)
However, if we vote No Death, then there is a 100% chance we lose one, and zero chance we lose two. (negative outcome)
This of course is assuming we still pick someone randomly. But unless someone speaks up, that is pretty much the position we are still in.
Now we have to decide how much we are willing to gamble.
But if you think about it, itâs also much safer for the demon side to opt for no deaths. A 100% chance of victory is better than a small chance of failure, even if the outcome is greater. If I were a Demon, Iâd want to convince the humans to avoid putting up a fight and let death come to them unchallenged.
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I agree with Aspi on this one. The logic Yerian set out is a flawed in that the 3/8 chance of killing one demon and losing one human isnât exactly neutral. I believe it is more positive than not. The win conditions for demons is to have enough people to outnumber humans. If we assume that there are 3 demons in this game, then the current score is 5:3 which is not very good for us. If a demon dies at the expense of a human, then surely that is a human advantage no? The score will go to 4:2 assuming that a demon will kill a human which means that it takes a lot more effort on the demon side to win if a demon is killed. That is why I believe your logic is flawed.
Now, I have been called out by Karifean for being too silent. I understand that I am suspicious for being silent. To clear that up I will start speaking. So now, I think we should force StarTurner to come out of hiding as well by voting for him.
Vote: StarTurner
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Apologies for being silent, as this is my first game of this ever, Iâve more been on the side of just observing things to get an idea of how this all works⌠From what I can tell, the only possible advantage to not lynching anyone is that weâd get a higher amount of night abilities⌠But if more people die, it really wouldnât work out⌠So someone probably has to be lynched⌠Is there any way to decide who without just guessing?
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As I listen to this discussion, I slam my hands on the table
All of you start this talk about probability and winning but none of you are remembering: two of our family have passed away because of this curse! I know Gouda wasnât always easy to get along with, but he was a good man and a great chef. And George, poor George, my nephew. Poor George was all alone, with nobody to help him, while all of you were only concerned with winning.
You all act as if this is a game, but our lives are on the line. The lives of our family are on the line. I think what has happened so far is proof enough that the Crimson Sorcerer is going by his word. While Gouda may be a bit⌠Strange, at times, I know he would not suddenly give up his life, if not for you folks who chose to vote against him.
Frankly, as it stands the one who arouses the most suspicion is the woman who was following him. However, without anybody revealing anything about themselves, we remain at a shot in the dark. And do you wish to continue shooting our guns in the dark as more and more innocents lose ther lives?
I do not wish to blame those who chose to vote for Gouda. Perhaps you were afraid, and I understand he wasnât the easiest person to get along with. However, once again, I implore. We need to learn more about each other. We need to separate those who lie from those who say the truth. Any inconsistencies will show themselves from the people who lie, and if we work together, I am sure we would be able to find those all the more easier. Then we can finally make choices like civilized human beings, with both compassion and logic.
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OOC:
As much as I dislike it, youâre not wrong. I have no idea what âdevoted wingâ has to do with Natsuhi, and even if it has plot relevance, I doubt I would be able to make it up on my own. 
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With just over 20 hours remaining, the votes stand at:
No Death - 1 (HeliosAlpha)
StarTurner - 1 (cjlim2007)
All this numbers and probability talk is giving me Zero Time Dilemma flashbacks
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What happens if multiple people have the same number of votes?
I get to flip a coin
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Look at @Aspirety denying my vote but not making one himself. Thatâs just being anti-gaming.
Seriously though, Iâm not sure why people arenât voting.
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I agree that it makes more sense to kill someone than wait for one of our own to die. It probably wonât be long before we are outnumbered, and if that happens we wonât make it out alive. Letâs see, whom did our ally vote for before he was brutally murdered again?
Vote: Aspirety
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Retaliation seems like a suitable recourse.
Vote: Karifean
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With⌠about 2 Hours remaining, the votes stand at:
No Death - 1 (HeliosAlpha)
StarTurner - 1 (cjlim2007)
Aspirety - 1 (Karifean)
Karifean - 1 (Aspirety)
might need to go find some dice or something, coin isnât gonna cut it now.
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Unwillingly, the family once again returned for their daily meeting. With concerns over both the death yesterday, and the corpse discovered from last night, people were very quiet and wary this time.
Someone wished to call out those who hadnât spoken up, and one of the pair accused the other. However, you could barely hear that under the two people at opposite ends of the table accusing each other. Trying to make the group take some sort of sense, one girl spoke up about part of the conversation from yesterday, pleading the idea of sacrificing no-one.
Officially, very few members at the table spoke legal votes, and the family worried over what looked like a potential, unknown disaster⌠but it never came.
You have 24 hours to take your Night Action, assuming you were given one. This phase ends at 12:30PM EST on Sunday the 14th of August. The sooner, the better.
Rest well.
@Karifean @Aspirety @RedEspeon @Yerian @StarTurner @cjlim2007 @Pepe @HeliosAlpha
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Since I wouldnât want to squander this opportunity our GM has bestowed upon me.
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An older woman, rather content with the state of things despite the game, sat down to relax in the foyer rather than heading straight to bed. She decided sheâd watch some TV to get her mind off the family and enjoy the precious hours that they werenât playing puppet to The Crimson.
A young girl, as restless as ever, was the first to walk in on her. She decided to settle down alongside her, and brought in some tea, so the two could talk about various girl things like love and life. Another woman joined them shortly after, intending to keep an eye on the older lady. Moments later, the room became busier still, as a young man entered the room as well. He saw himself out, clearly intruding on the sacred ritual of girl talk, but once the door was closed behind him he quickly jotted down some notes on one of the women.
The three stayed up long into the night, and as they became tired, the last woman to enter became the first to leave. She headed upstairs and towards her room, and as she reached into her pocket for a key, she suddenly felt an intense pain in her back. She swung around, intending to see the attacker as well as stun them with her elbow, but the culprit moved faster, and her chest was cut open before she could register exactly what she saw.
Karifean is dead, he was Kyrie Ushiromiya, Human Aligned Brilliant Mind
You have 48 Hours to decide on your votes, with the phase ending at 12:30PM EST, on Tuesday the 16th of August.
With 7 Players remaining, the majority lynch is at 4. If majority is achieved, the vote will be frozen and the player nominated will be killed as soon as the Game Master is available. If majority is not achieved during the Phase, the player with the most votes at the end of the time limit will be killed.
Enjoy your day.
@Karifean @Aspirety @RedEspeon @Yerian @StarTurner @cjlim2007 @Pepe @HeliosAlpha
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