Rokkenjima Secret Oyashiro III [Finished - One True Kings Victory]

Gameboards
#242

@Restkastel Well just wanting to thank you for trusting me and picking me up. I feel a little honored.

I’m uncertain if someone posted probabilities for this turn so far?
I’ll say it again in case, based on there being 2 progressive policies left and 6 OTK, but I’m not going to calculate other probabilities as I’m sure picto or rest can bring that up with their spreadsheet before it’s worth it for me to bother doing any calculations there…

PPR 3/28 or ~10.71%
PRR 15/28 or ~53.57%
RRR 10/28 or ~35.71%

The range of possibilities goes at least as far as I’m concerned between 3 progressive policies left and 0 progressive policies left (sadly) tho this later case has rather low probabilities in itself.

#243

Actually I posted all of the possibilities here.

Check this post.

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#244

I wonder who has yet to vote still. We only have about 4 hours or so before the timeout now.

#245

The vote has concluded! Here are the results.

9 YES to 1 NO; the vote succeeds!

Government Phase

Our new government once again has the obligation of leading Hinamizawa. Let us pray that their choice is in the best interest of the entire village.

Restkastel and UsagiTenpura, you two may not post in this topic until the government phase has concluded.

#246

@UsagiTenpura @Blackrune @akafa123 @PictoShark @Restkastel @StarTurner @PocketyHat @thesorceress @Wonderlander @Rabla

Gather round, members of the council! The government has made their choice, a new policy has been enacted!

“Lolis are now required to wear a fake moustache in public.”

A shudder comes over everyone in the room. A One True King policy, and a shameless one at that.

Privilege Phase

@Restkastel, you now have the obligation of making use of your privilege of Investigation. Choose another player by stating their name in bold; you will be privately informed of their alignment. If you happen to choose Oyashiro, you will not be told that they are Oyashiro but instead just that they are One True King-aligned. You have 24 hours to make your choice.

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#247

First off, I think we ought to hear what policies were given to each of us. I will wait for @UsagiTenpura to post what she got from me before saying what I got. I would also like to ask @Wonderlander why they voted no. Im a bit curious.

#248

Well this sucks.
I got two OTK policies.

I guess it’s very much within the realm of probabilities.
Still now I kinda feel like a bitch for what I said about @Rabla.
Of course I’m wondering why @Wonderlander voted no here while voting yes on @pictoshark.
The main thing for now I guess is wether Restkastel’s investigation can be trusted or not. Obviously, I’ll first have to hear what you have to say on what happened this round.

#249

I unfortunately did get three OTK policies. In a show of trust I passed on writing them as I realize that claiming three OTK policies right after another set of them is suspicious, and Usagi is far more trustworthy. I know I can trust myself, but I can totally understand why others would not.

I do think we should still investigate @akafa123 to determine who among that last group is the actual OTK and who is the Progressive. I do however want to hear everyone’s opinions on this before I investigate, after all, more discussion and debate always helps the Progressives. If we rush things then the OTKs gain a significant advantage by allowing them to cause confusion and reduce discussion, reducing our chances at discovering who they actually are.

#250

I guess that draw was I unfortunate, though not surprising. I’m inclinded to believe you two that that’s what actually happened.

I think @akafa123 would be a good pic, because that would confirm the @pictoshark situation, but I also think that anyone would be worthwhile, to confirm the validity of any of the people. If someone’s progressive, we can use them as a chancellor repeatedly.

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#251

Also, whether you believe me or the night, here are the range of possible chances for drawing different numbers of cards in the deck at the moment.

ss (2017-01-14 at 10.41.51).png1060x155 8.04 KB

If you choose to believe everyone, including me, the current count is sitting at 2 progressive and 3 radical.

@thesorceress And that is a good point, but the same benefit stands for investigating Akafa. It could be that not only do we find a progressive for sure, we would also know for sure an OTK.

I shall keep that in mind however, do you have any other people you would suggest investigating?

#252

I’ll buy that draw for now even though the chance was fairly below 50%.
Whether that holds up will depend on what’s drawn next though.

If you investigate akafa you’d kind of just join the conflict. I’m not sure if it’s the best move considering it could potentially tie up two progressives for just one King then. It might be better to look at someone else.

#253

This is true, I just don’t know where to start otherwise. Do you have any suggestions?

#254

I’d love an investigate on @akafa123.

From your POV, it would reveal two of your enemies, or one enemy and one ally.

I’d say it’s worth it.

#255

I’ll have to think a little bit more on the investigation, personally. @akafa123 is under a lot of suspicion, of course, but there’s also people we have no information about that are about to have their chances as president. In a way I feel bad for @pictoshark or @akafa123, whichever of the two is a progressive (I guess there’s also the uglier scenario where neither are…) but this is what weights in the balance to me right now.

I would actually right now very much insist on @StarTurner picking up the person he finds the most trustable as chancellor candidate for this following round rather than taking an informative risk at this point. I’d very much like to hear you thoughts about this and I’d very much appreciate @Restkastel to take this into consideration before investigating anyone, if possible.

My top pick at this point would be, personally, @Blackrune. Of course, that’s all up to you @StarTurner and I’m not sure if I’m still trusted enough to be in a position to give any sort of advices.

I’d actually very much like to hear @pictoshark’s reaction rampage as well, personally.

This outcome is really less than ideal heh.

Going to be sorta vain I know I know, but this mess is the reason why I think it’s better to play it safe when one obtains 2 progressive policies, such as I did and @Blackrune claims he did. Obviously this won’t affect the rest of this game. But just saying for future meta.

#256

Also, the checking @akafa123 situation isn’t as simple as it first appears.

It would be ideal for @Restkastel to end up checking the Progressive out of the bunch (if there is one) as that would reveal to him the identity of one of his allies and also one of his enemies.

On the flipside if he checks the King then he’ll still have that possibility that both of us are Kings sitting in the back of his mind, which isn’t exactly ideal, he’ll only know who one enemy is and nothing more than that.

In short, @Restkastel should check the one of our pair that he finds less suspicious as he’ll get more info if he ends up checking the Progressive.

But still even if he sees King when he makes the check he’ll still have someone that’s likely to be an ally, just not guaranteed.

I think peeping into this little squabble would be the ideal way for @Restkastel to use his magic little magnifying glass.

Just my thoughts.

Stop talking crap, these are entirely different situations.

#257

If either risk had fallen negatively we’d be at 3 OTK vs 1 progressive. I don’t think that’s crap. You’re allowed to your opinion, but I’m also allowed to mine without having it being called crap.

#258

According to the rules, a person cannot be investigated twice, so if I were to investigate one of the bunch I would have to investigate @akafa123

However, the others have brought up a good point. This would likely put me into the conflict as well, which would end up in the very worst case, and likely, scenario of tying up two progressives for one OTK. This is not a good trade. The only way for that to end up fine is if everyone accepted the results of my investigation as trustworthy and able to resolve the conflict which, frankly, I do not expect them to do. That would be asking far too much of everyone. Even if it meant that I would know who my potential allies and enemies would be, it wouldn’t mean much if it tied me up in the conflict and the information was not reliable to my fellow Progressives.

I do need to hear from @StarTurner for sure before I decide as well, though I would like to hear everyone’s opinion in general about what I said above. I would be very honored if I was trusted that much, but I do not expect it at all. After all, I was unfortunately forced into being responsible for an OTK policy at the whims of the deck.

Anyone who wishes to throw their two cents in is welcome, I just am unsure of how to proceed, I want to make sure that this very important tool which is the only silver lining of being forced to play an OTK policy is not wasted.

#259

But when a pres gives their chancellor a choice then the pres can find out who one of the Kings is. If that pres later proves themselves trustworthy, then the TEAM knows who one of the Kings are. It’s not complicated. Also, it means that that pres can also use a King Power giving them even more info, and shutting out one of the King Powers from being misused by a different potentially King president.

Choices are a crucial part of good SH gameplay.

Tch. Damn it. I want out of this conflict but you raise good points.

If you check @akafa123 then you will see King and then… Feh.

Fine, use it one someone else.

I’ll prove myself in time.

For graciously stepping aside, can I be next chancellor? Pretty please?

Maybe check the next president then @Restkastel? Whoever that is. I have to go out, so I can’t check.

#260

Now then, back to the matter at hand. I have a few notable choices about what to do here. I shall list them all beneath this, as well as potential problems before going into some other details about some information I would like before I decide on who I investigate.

  1. I investigate Akafa. Naturally, this is what we were talking about at first, however there are serious disadvantages to this plan. Without the support of everyone, or at least most people, this would simply drag me into the existing conflict which would likely end up committing two progressives to keep one OTK out of power. This, naturally, is not ideal. So barring everyone trusting me enough to take my word for what the outcome is, this is unlikely to be my course of action. I do not expect all of you to trust me given the unfortunate accident that happened, but in this case, I would be pleasantly surprised to be wrong.

  2. I investigate Blackrune. This naturally would probably be one of the safest bets. It would likely confirm a Progressive, so long as you are willing to trust the outcome of my Investigation to a degree, and would set up a possible chancellor for the future if we end up in Oyashiro territory. Naturally they wouldn’t be able to be included in every government, but it would be helpful. However, the downside is that if they turn out to be OTK in my investigation, however unlikely that is, it would create a block of 4 people in conflict which would mean every go around would include a topdeck or a possible OTK president. Naturally, this is not ideal.

  3. I investigate StarTurner. This would be useful to see if we should skin the current president or not, however this brings up a problem of its own. If it should show up OTK, that would leave a block of 4 conflict people in a row, which means that we cannot skip all of them lest we end up having to topdeck a policy, which would not be ideal given the ratio of OTK to Prog in the deck.

  4. I investigate someone else that is nominated. Naturally, this comes with the same issues as above depending on who is investgated.

Before I make my decision I would like to hear what Star Turner has to say about who he might pick as a Chancellor. I would also like to hear what Wonderlander’s reasoning was for voting no on this government while voting yes on Pictoshark.

Other opinions are, of course, welcome, however what I really need is to hear those two as well as arguments on which of the options we should do before I use my power.

@UsagiTenpura @Blackrune @akafa123 @PictoShark @StarTurner @PocketyHat @thesorceress @Wonderlander @Rabla

#261

Here’s what I’ve been considering.

A progressive result of investigating Blackrune would be frankly speaking easier to trust than a progressive result of investigating akafa as it would inherently just create a mess. Of course it’s possible you get an OTK result of the investigation which would create another mess, but at least it wouldn’t necessarily create one and would potentially create someone more trustworthy. Meanwhile an OTK result of that same investigation would highly suggest that Blackrune lied about what he obtained (while in comparison, even if akafa is an OTK, there’s good chances they actually did obtain 3 OTK policies) and basically while we can’t really be certain of everything and especially not of wether you yourself are a liar or not, it would also give you a good opportunity to judge how likely it is for star to obtain at least one progressive policy.

Beside, while I’m very eager to trust Blackrune in general, it’s always a double edged sword because Oyashiro would go out of their way to act trustworthy. It’d be great to have someone that has far lower chances of being suspected of this, even if you alone would be certain of this information.