They’re probably not stupid enough to actually wear them for anything other than their spooky secret King gatherings.
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They may forget in a hurry!
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Well, time for probabilities.
There are 6 policies left. Progressive policies left are between 0 and 2.
2 Progressive policies left :
PPR 1/5 or 20%
PRR 3/5 or 60%
RRR 1/5 or 20%
1 Progressive policies left :
PRR 1/2 or 50%
RRR 1/2 or 50%
0 Progressive policies left :
RRR 1/1 or 100%
Unless I suck at this, possible, multitasking right now.
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Sorry guys. I got three OTK policies.
Also I just kinda wanted to make a Lord of the Rings-ish reference. At least there’s more likely a shot that we’ll get a progressive policy next round.
@Blackrune if, and I mean IF, I appoint you for special candidacy, what would you do?
Ask me something easier. I still think I would go with Usagi, if everyone is okay with that, though I’m kind of in doubt now. There’s that small chance this was all a huge setup to get me to do it. Now my alternate pick would be Restkastel since they seemed to promote the idea that I shouldn’t be chancellor here so I’d be available in Oyashiro time. It doesn’t seem like a very Oyashiro thing to say, but again, I’m just all paranoid right now. Considering me and Rest are kind of linked by the investigation result I guess that might not have the best chances of passing the vote, so I don’t know.
If you’re serious about appointing @UsagiTenpura, I’ll appoint you. I don’t think she’s a OTK or Oyashiro.
My problem with @Restkastel is that if I’m wrong and you are a OTK then they’re almost certainly a OTK or Oyashiro. But there’s no one I’d really rather appoint than you I don’t think. It was my plan if everything fell the way it ended up falling.
Does anyone else have thoughts? I’m appointing @Blackrune if no one has objections. But I don’t think I’m cool with a @Restkastel chancellorship it seems like a risk.
I support it.
Also pick anyone but Rest, me and akafa for chancellorship @Blackrune. Choosing Usagi would probably be best.
Yes, I have to say that Restkastel is not the best of choice for this, sadly.
Remember the following things :
The two of you are tied only in the sense that if you are an OTK, so is Restkastel. You could see why that wouldn’t be the best choice to trust you to make that choice. It’s also possible, however, you are a progressive and Restkastel is an OTK. In particular if Restkastel is an OTK, they would most likely be Oyashiro due to how much they went out of their way to do actions that could be considered attempts to gain the trust of the two people most likely to be chosen as presidents in such times.
I’m really not saying this is the case as a formal accusation, btw, but I admit that considering everything I would not be easy with the Restkastel choice of chancellor, and would be forced to vote against it.
Remember that Restkastel didn’t pass a single progressive policy, and yet someone managed to stand out as an extremely likely and trusted progressive. Call it a testament to how I consider Restkastel to be potentially cunning, but I wouldn’t rule it out past him to be able to attain something like this.
Still I think what I just said is wrong I’m very sorry Rest for even suggesting it, but this is a zone for paranoia and Blackrune, trusting someone who didn’t pass any progressive policy simply because they investigated you without declaring a conflict is not a good reason. Oyashiro would never start a conflict if they play right because it makes them being ever chosen as chancellor out of the question -> look at pictoshark and akafa’s situation.
“Not be at ease with the Restkastel choice of chancellor”
Hold on a second. @UsagiTenpura
I have an objection to this, at least for Pictoshark. There is still the possibility that Pictoshark is an OTK. I won’t object to Akafa being a King, but do not the forget the possibility that they are Both kings, anbd Akafa is playing as an obvious King to give Pictoshark more credence in the long run.
King on King conflicts are a thing that happen for reasons like this, and while it is a probably rather advanced technique on Akafa’s part, I would say that it is a possibility.
Hold up here as well frankly. Why am I included in this.
If Picto is indeed an OTK, then yes this could very well be a full setup, and as such I would probably ignore pictoshark. I really, really think its a bad idea.
This is assuming a few things.
A. It would mean that we are assuming that Oyashiro is playing correctly
B. This is assuming something that isn’t true. Frankly, I have seen in the past successful Oyashiro conflicts. The reason being is that if you cannot be sure of who is a progressive and who is Oyahsiro, but you have an -obvious- King on the table, some people may nominate the King, especially when the likelihood of getting triple king is very high like in a situation like this perhaps.
I hate suggesting it as well, but because of the same reasons that Usagi has mentioned about her being uncomfortable with me being Chancellor, I would be cautious with nominating @UsagiTenpura as well. Remember, while she did pass a progressive policy, she forced it. This, along with not being able to be contradicted by the draws we got, could lead to the theory that Usagi was forced to force her chancellor to play progressive.
I know that she got double King when she was with me because I was forced to give her double king from a bad draw, but it very well could be that @thesorceress and her could be Kings.
But as Usagi said as well, I Think What I said is likely wrong but this is a time for paranoia, and I would be forced to vote NO here because of that. It is a testament to Usagi’s own skill that makes me wonder if this isnt an elaborate ploy on her part as well, and I am sorry that I have to put this forward Usagi just as you are sorry that you have to put it forward about me.
Well it’d have been literal suicide in this game, as nobody wants to deal in the conflict of pictoshark/afaka, rightfully so.
In any case, if you really doubt me, it’d be better to move elsewhere, but not toward Rest. Rest himself should be aware that he’s not the best of choice from our external situation and I kinda thought he’d agree to someone else.
Moving away from me toward Rest is going to just end up potentially creating doubt toward your own self, Blackrune, due to how the two of you are tied. That’s just how it is. There is literally zero reason if you’re a progressive to actually trust Restkastel, and Restkastel himself should be aware of it, much like pictoshark, if a progressive, is saying the same thing.
Who to pick beside that? I don’t know. You may want to go for thesorceress as alternative possibility. I really can’t see akafa (who I’m like 99% of being an OTK) voting against this government if she was an OTK herself. I’m not sure if she can be chosen as chancellor tho?
I am not putting myself into the hat as a likely candidate, I simply don’t know why I was immediately excluded by pictoshark and with him favoring you.
I don’t know who else to trust honestly as well, hence why while I know Im likely not to be chosen I would like to be, since the only two i can be sure of at this point are myself and Blackrune.
As for anyone else, I would say not to pick the conflict or Usagi because of it if you want to exclude myself.
Each of those sections are self contained and directed at a person, thats just how my replies usually work.
Well, that’s just lovely.
But the question is whether Oyashiro would play the 4th progressive policy when the OTKs are that far behind. Then again, that’s exactly why Oyashiro can’t afford to get into a conflict right now - it might be their only shot left at winning.
Ugh… but then something can be said against everyone. akafa kind of demonstrated a rather casual playstyle, so I wouldn’t even be surprised if they just made some kind of daring move and randomly started a conflict.
If pictoshark is the OTK in that conflict there’s a good chance he’s Oyashiro because he was investigated by chance.
I couldn’t even pick thesorceress, previously elected president and all.
What do you think about Wonderlander? The logic here is that while super suspicious, it was more in an “acts on additional information” way, which Oyashiro wouldn’t have.
Maybe StarTurner and Pocketyhat is where I need to look. But those are actually more likely to be Oyashiro due to not having a lot of attention on themselves. Rabla is just kind of absent altogether, and when I doubt I at least don’t want to lose to an Oyashiro that is afk. 
As you can see, the paranoia is certainly flowing.
I just want a confirmation that these are the rules btw?
I know she can’t nominate herself as president, but I don’t know if you can’t pick her as chancellor in this “special candidacy” situation. After all you were part of the previous government and on your way of being chosen as next presidential candidate.
Indeed, its quite the conundrum. I understand where everyone is coming from when it comes to me being suspicious as a possible Oyashiro, but then again that is simply assuming we are dealing with a competent Oyashiro as well as at least semi-competent Kings. At least from what I can tell, this doesn’t seem to be the case if we take people at their words in a broad sense.
And I will mention that while I have been involved in a King policy and no Progressives, I have been in a total of one government, and considering the chances of my drawing Triple King at that point, it is simply bad luck, at least to me since I know it for sure, and has a very decent shot at being bad luck if you look at probabilities and the possibility that I mentioned above if we work off the theory that Usagi may in fact be Oyashiro, or even the possibility that @rabla and @akafa123 are both Kings.
Again, I don’t expect you to fully trust me, I just don’t know who else to trust not to be Oyashiro at this point, and I honestly have vague suspicions about Wonderlander at this point so I would really rather not have them as a chancellor. I understand everyone’s distrust of everyone at this point, but I think that we need to hear cases from everyone on why they themselves think they should be Chancellor and trustworthy at this point.
After all, we have plenty of time still to do our thing and the more information that we have the more that we are likely to be able to clear this fog of paranoia and find a decent candidate to nominate. I understand that people have cast aspersions on me as possibly Oyashiro, and that you likely have vague suspicions as well, and I don’t expect you to immediately pick me, but I know that I am progressive, and that is at least my case for why I think I would make a good Chancellor, even if I know that some might disagree vehemently.
We should discuss what everyone thinks on who they think is trustworthy or not and take our time and hear everyone’s cases as I said before.
They are, the reason she could be picked is just that special candidacy means you can “pick anyone but yourself” to be president. Normal rules apply otherwise.
I would rather not be chancellor if you do end up nominating Blackrune as president because:
A) I don’t trust them, and seeing how I blamed them, they might use this government to put even more distrust on me.
B) I am the next presidential candidate, and if I end up having to play a King policy I know I probably will never be trusted and never be a president.
I still don’t agree with making Blackrune the president, but I will go with the majority here. I think choosing the chancellor as someone in conflict is the best idea, because we know for sure they aren’t the Oyashiro.
That is frankly wrong, especially considering its Pictoshark we are dealing with. I have seen Picto make a play in the past where he was Oyashiro in conflict and was counting on this very situation to happen, and it did. He managed to win because everyone thought “Oyashiro would NEVER get into conflict”
In a game played live that lasts like 30 mins crazy moves like that would really be a fun thing to do, including really absurd ones. But in this game with such a pace where everyone has too many time to think about everything, I think it’d be a really bad move.
On the matter of pictoshark tho, I can say I’m nearly certain he is a progressive since I kinda know that I am one and he’s pushing for me to be chosen as chancellor. That’s not a reasoning transferable to anyone else tho, please in no ways trust this as in itself it doesn’t mean an absolute certainty. As picto himself keeps saying, no one should deal in the akafa/picto situation
So I’m not too sure why I’m saying that in a way, grats picto, you got one person to actually be certain you’re a progressive if anything. Still not going to chose you to do anything if presidency candidacy ever comes back to me XD.
I’m kinda tempted to suggest to Blackrune and thesorcess to pick me as presidential candidate and that I’d pick up Blackrune in return. By this point, I’ll have to admit that you triggered suspicion flag by turning against me and going for rest, sadly… but Im kinda willing to make a bet by this point cause fuck it, we have to advance and finish this game, and I still think akafa voting no makes it nearly certain you and thesorceress are progressives.
I don’t know what everyone else would think of this tho - pictoshark, Blackrune, Restkastel and thesorceress in particular? (I know wonderlander would be very not happy with this tho sorry)? Maybe even suggesting this makes me more suspicious. I’m taking my bet here trusting Blackrune, you’ll have to take your’s.
For the record this is the thing I’m betting on now :
Blackrune is a progressive
Pictoshark is a progressive
thesorceress is a progressive
akafa123 is an OTK
Restkastel, StarTurner, PocketyHat, Wonderlander, Rabla? I don’t know. But I’m kinda betting that 3/5 of those are OTK, one of them being Oyashiro.
There’s -shortcuts of reasoning- in there but if I evaluate every possibilities the dice will never fall anywhere, ever, because I don’t have any absolute information - so this is the chance I’m taking right now.