Man I had a lot of alcohol. I told you I had two full highballs and a shot of whiskey.
I guess I’ll give a list of statements I am making reasoning on.
Likely means likely not certain especially dealing with the idea that Oyashiro may not know who their allies are. If anyone wants me to explain any of these statements, I will do so. They are all based on observations of doubts and trusts which I could probably find links for if anyone asks me about them. This again are not certainties because OTK can casts doubts on their allies just to create mindgame - in fact this is definitively something to keep in mind. These “blue” statement are only valid as long as this holds up true.
The yellow statements here comes from what logically follows from the two investigations that occurred.
The purpleish text is because pictoshark requires his own color because no statement about him is actually really likely in any form or shape.
Wonderlander and Restkastel are likely not both OTKs. It’s possible neither are.
Wonderlander and Blackrune are likely not both OTKs. It’s possible neither are.
If Restkastel is a progressive, Starturner is likely a progressive.
If Starturner is a OTK, Restkastel is likely an OTK.
If Restkastel is a OTK, it’s possible Starturner is a progressive.
If Pictoshark is a radical, wonderlander is most likely a progressive. Then again. This is pictoshark, so this is less certain.
One between pictoshark and akafa is a radical. It’s possible both are.
If Blackrune is a radical, so is Restkastel.
If Restkastel is a progressive, so is Blackrune.
If Restkastel is a radical, it’s possible Blackrune is a progressive.
If you want me to add things about myself I could say this, trying to view things from an external pov :
It’s very unlikely that Restkastel and I are both OTK. It’s possible neither of us are.
If thesorceress is an OTK, it’s likely that I am one myself.
If I am a progressive, it’s likely that thesorceress is a progressive.
It’s possible thesorceress is a progressive and I am an OTK.
There’s probably a few more statements worth adding there so others may want to contribute to this.
Again keep in mind that Oyashiro has no idea who their allies are, which makes some of these statements even less certain than some others. But if reasoning is done from anything beside guts feeling, this is probably it.
With this, I’m not sure I can really contribute anything else.
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Okay, time for my nomination… Hmmm… I actually have no idea. I can’t nominate @thesorceress or @Blackrune… I am thinking of nominating @UsagiTenpura because it is basically proven they aren’t an OTK. I could also go with @Restkastel because
A) I wanna make him trust me on the off chance he also is a progressive.
B) Unless I get 3 OTK policies, I know for sure if I can trust him or not.
I suppose the 3rd option could be going with someone who was basically silent till now, like @StarTurner/@PocketyHat/@Rabla but that could be a good Oyashiro tactic.
What do you guys think? Personally I would go with Usagi again.
Wow, local King doesn’t keep up with the thread.
Usagi just caused the last government to fail. I wouldn’t do that if I were you.
Let’s throw this post on the “Evidence for Usagi being Oyashiro” pile, okay?
Well I voted NO because of Blackrune. Anyways, I understand where you guys are coming from even though we basically don’t know why half of the no voters voted no.
What would you prefer then Mr. Restkastel? That I pick you or somebody else?
On one hand I still feel like this vote would have passed if Usagi was Oyashiro.
On the other hand both people from the conflict voting yes just means that at least one King was fine with this.
Wonderlander voted against the government just now, this kinda goes against the whole ‘obvious King plays obviously like a King’ idea if we assume Usagi was actually Oyashiro. It makes more sense if they legitimately distrusted me instead. On the other hand they could afford to vote no, being the next in line… hrmmmm…
@Wonderlander You do realize that trusting Restkastel means you might as well have trusted me? 
My eyes must be deceiving me. It says @Pictoshark voted YES. there does it not? Please look at yourself first before trying to stir something up.
If I know I can trust Rest, that is also a benefit, I get to trust you. 
I honestly don’t know who else to choose considering theres shade thrown on just about everyone at this point so the only ones I can be sure of are myself and Blackrune, but I don’t think you would pick Blackrune.
I would like to hear other people’s cases for who they think should be nominated
@Blackrune The reason they are likely willing to trust me here is if I am an OTK like they think I am I would be forced to pass a King policy giving them the bullet, allowing them to shoot me. If it turns out he can trust me, the game is over anyway.
Even if I wanted to pick Blackrune, I cannot because they were part of the previous government.
And if you turn out to be Oyashiro and I nominate you. Good game sir.
The only reason that I don’t suggest failing this government at the moment is because then @rabla would be the next president, and we have pretty much zero information on him considering he has not talked the entire game really, and I would rather not be forced to take a topdeck or accept who he nominates.
Ah yes, I forgot about that considering special presidency. Such are the pitfalls of a forum secret hitler game, they are far too long at times.
Well that sounds suspicious as hell.
I’d remind you that there’s no 100% chances of obtaining 1 progressive policy.
Especially since we don’t know if pocketyhat actually drew 2 and discarded one or not, that depends entirely on their allegiance (let’s not forget that from your pov there’s also the chance we conspired together). Furthermore while I’m 100% certain that thesorceress didn’t discard a progressive policy, you have far less reasons to be certain of it, especially if you actually doubt me as Oyashiro.
So the game will end if wonderlander trusts you… because you are Oyashiro? Was that a slip?
No, because a triple fasc means he still cant trust me.
That means the game won’t end tho?
No, if it turns out he can trust me. Not that he puts trust in me. I was referring to playing a progressive.
Sorry if I wasn’t clear there. I meant that if I prove my trustworthiness, which would mean playing a progressive policy at this point, which means a progressive win.
Well I already am not comfortable, to say the least, that you downvoted this gov while being supposedly able to fully trust Blackrune entirely due to me bringing unease about possible collusion that choosing you would’ve looked like which you admitted to being right yourself.
It was a bet from your pov, most certainly, but was it a better bet than Wonderlander who consistently considered you suspicious or Rabla for the very reasons you named?
I’m not sure I can get your logic there, tbh. Consider again that if Blackrune had chosen you, both of you would’ve looked probably suspicious to the end. You should’ve realized that. If you’re unable to make a bet on anyone but “chosing your own self”, that looks even more suspicious. No one who says “pick me up” should ever be chosen in those scenarios anyway.
@Wonderlander I suggest actually taking either Rabla for information or StarTurner because I think he may be the best remaining choice in this situation. Again we have to make bets at one point.
@Restkastel Considering that StarTurner suggest you, he should be a valid choice from your pov?