So first of all, I want to try to figure out how the game even works. First off, we seem to lose when we acknowledge the existence of the witch and magic. It seems reasonable to assume that a possible win condition could be to actually prove that a witch doesn’t exist, however, this is basically impossible and the story goes great lengths to make that clear. However, Beatrice stated that another win condition for us would be to find the hidden gold while she supposedly tries to kill everyone. So it stands to reason what even the hidden gold is. One possible theory would be that at the location of the gold there’s also some kind of paper explaining the history of the mistress Beatrice of which we already heard of in episode 1. Of course, the gold could just be metaphorical and stand for the truth, since if we would find that, then we would no longer base our denial on the possibility of a human committing the crimes, but the certainty that a human has committed the crimes.
As I don’t have a way to conclusively get a one single truth yet though, my only possibility is to be on the defensive and present one possible way how a human could have done it. And here it is important to not make the mistake that Battler made, namely, to use a different analogy, because screw chess, to try to play Advance Wars like Fire Emblem. (for those that don’t understand the reference, both are turn-based strategy games, in the former you do and are required to sacrifce some units, in the latter you don’t.) And that gives me the possibility to also blame one of the 18, although I’ll not refrain to say that a 19th human called Beatrice might have done some murdering as well if it’s useful to me. And with the person I’m going to blame, it really seems like an obvious weak spot in the locked rooms presented, as Bernkastel suggested in the Ura Tea Party. Also I should probably give a name now. So my pick falls on Gohda, although I assume that Rosa is also a wolf if we want to go with this episode’s analogy.
So why Gohda? Simple. While the first twilight could have been committed by anyone really and you guys also showed the possibility of Rosa committing the second and even the murders in the servant room, the ones in Natsuhi’s room are the most difficult to explain. For Natsuhi’s I felt that [quote=“Seraphitic, post:40, topic:27”]
How do Gohda, Shannon and George die? […] murder-suicide
this is the best approach. So here I asked myself. Considering their deaths, which of these could have been a suicide? Shannon is out because stake through head is impossible as suicide I’d say. Gohda and George though are still qualified, and with Gohda’s master key making all the other locked rooms unlocked, my choice went to him. Killing Kanon and Jessica could have very much been him as well, and as a cook he might have enough experience from other animals to prepare the scene of the first twilight as well. However, there are still three problems: How did he kill Kumasawa and Nanjo without Shannon and Genji telling it, how did that one letter end up in the parlor and how were the rest killed after Gohda himself was dead? Solution: it was Rosa’s idea to kill everyone from her family so that she’d inherit everything, she managed to get all the staff on her side, maybe by promising them some of the money, and with this theory, it is likely that she actually did commit the second twilight in the way you suggested, planning to blame everything on Kanon so that she’d still get the money. Oh, and she did not only want to kill her siblings, no, her nephews and niece were also in the way, just to make sure. Of course, with this reasoning, there’s the question “Why kill Nanjo and Kumasawa then?” Well, Nanjo is dangerous as a doctor, it could somehow reveal her scheme to the ones on the island, and Kumasawa probably didn’t let herself be bought and was thus a dangerous variable. Plus, it makes the murders seem senseless. So in the end, it was to her advantage that George wanted to stay with Shannon, as he’s easier killed that way, maybe she even planned that. You could even go as far as say that this is the reason why Shannon really started a relationship with George, just with the complication that she actually fell in love with him, which is why Gohda had to kill her as well in Natsuhi’s room. As to why he killed himself as well, maybe he couldn’t bear the guilt of killing such a nice couple. With my reasoning of all the servants being under kahoots, this might even be the only murders he actually committed himself, the preparing of the first twilight could easily been only passive assistance or even no assistance and a bit of luck on Rosa’s part as well, and with Genji’s knife skills displayed throughout this episode, it is more easily imaginable to see him cutting some throats. Now, the next part: Almost everyone from the family is now dead, but there’s still the annoyance of Battler, something Rosa couldn’t even have planned for. So she improvises, places the letter in the parlor herself, waits for Battler to find it, to then claim that he’s a wolf as well.
Said letter could even be the one from the rose garden, as @Seraphitic showed us that we actually don’t know the contents of it, although it doesn’t really matter in the end.
From now on it goes into pure speculation as to what happened, as we ever only get a fantastical explanation for the final five deaths. Battler is then left in the hands of Genji, who is probably instructed to kill both Kinzo and Battler at that point. Rosa then probably even kills Genji as well, as she is shown to be untrusting at heart in this episode. However, then Maria probaby gets Rosa to realize what terrible things she has done, so in a vain effort to run away from the truth, she grabs her daughter and runs, being chased by the “Goat demons” that are the guilt a human feels. On that way, however, she falls and sprains her ankle, and as it was mentioned in a throwaway line in the first episode, on an island there is no one that can hear you scream, so even a seemingly harmless injury like a sprained ankle can be fatal. Especially if she just blindly ran in one direction and fell at a place that isn’t that frequented, maybe even the forest. Either way, it is easy to assume that Maria tried to foolishly look for help, ventured into the forest since that is where “Beatrice” lives, and thus wasn’t even found by the officials and starved to death.
Okay, my speculation for the final five really sounds more like some amateur fanfiction. Well, it’s still a defense, even if it’s not a good one.
When I was reading this again in your quote, I had the idea that the m, b, t, q stands for million, billion, trillion, and quadrillion respectively, so that it basically indeed shows astronomical odds, something like 1 in 1000000000000. Of course, I could be totally wrong, and apparently you guys spoiled this little tidbit in the podcast, so oh well.
Also, I heard you guys like notes, so I thought I’d post the ones I made during playing as well. http://pastebin.com/K8GkGYWu
EDIT: I got an idea what might be the third twilight in this instance of the game. As we already learned that the twilights can apparently be in different orders, couldn’t it be that the third twilight is when all the siblings acknowledge Beatrice in the chapel? Also hopefully you didn’t get the idea yourself later in the podcast, I just paused that to write this idea down.
2nd EDIT (Kinda annoying when I’m the only one posting, but can’t be helped as I’m probably the only one that’s currently only up to episode 2): Adding a few little points to @Seraphitic’s list of stuff that’s similar or same between episodes, this time though a bit more from the supposedly magic side. I basically looked as to who was injured by the same stake (injured because we don’t know if that actually killed or was done after death). As these each represent one of the deadly sins, this might even be symbolic for some kind of motive, who knows.
Kanon was found with the "Stake of Satan"
Nanjo was found with the "Stake of Belphegor"
Kumasawa was found with the “Stake of Leviathan”
What I find interesting here is that Kumasawa is associated with envy in both episodes, something that I personally didn’t really see in her character. Same, although to a lesser extent, goes for Nanjo being associated with sloth. Kanon being associated with wrath though is pretty obvious in both death scenes.