Just finished Episode 4. I’m still confused and trying to piece together the story, but I’m just going to throw a bunch of theories and observations out there in hopes that one of them is correct (they’re all probably trash anyway).
One observation I made that I don’t think can be ignored is that in the first twilight across all episodes, there are 5 people who are not killed. These 5 are Jessica, Battler, Maria, George, and Nanjo. This can imply two things. Either the culprit (or at least someone involved) of the first twilight is one of them, or the killer has a reason to not kill these 5 specifically. It can even be both. The first twilight is a huge mystery, and most people’s alibis for this twilight are very sketchy, so the perpetrator can be mostly anybody. Although, I don’t remember Nanjo ever having a solid alibi for these twilights, or most anything really, so I’m saying right now that Nanjo is a very suspicious character (not to mention that his body is never found afterwards in Episode 3).
This leads me to a theory. If we assume that the killer or killers in the first twilight had a reason not to kill those 5, I can come to the conclusion that the perpetrators of the first twilight are the same across all games on the basis of consistency. And with this I am also saying that, yes, one of the perpetrators could have theoretically died on the first twilight. I have my doubts that this twilight in particular could have been done by one person considering how they essentially kill 6 people, all of whom I assume are killed around the same time. I also have more reason to believe this theory. We know from the letter that were sent to the surviving families that at the very least some of the murders on the island were planned beforehand, and also that the perpetrator had the Kinzo’s ring before the family conference (though it can also be said that Kinzo wrote those letters himself and died between their sending and the conference). Because some of the murders were at least planned, we have to ask which murders were planned. And to this I say that the first twilight was planned. This is mainly for the fact that it’s the twilight that sparks everything, and also because it’s the most consistent of all the twilights. The twilights don’t always happen in order, and with the second twilight, there isn’t a stake for that one in the third episode. It’s very odd, so the first twilight stands out to me as something more calculated and planned. Of course there are flaws to this argument such as how the 5 people not dying specifically could just be a coincidence, but I’m still throwing this out there.
I also have a bit of another theory to throw out that is a bit more credible and can go together with my previous one. The person who “killed” Kinzo across all games can only be Genji, Nanjo, Kanon, Shannon, Krauss, Natsuhi, or Jessica. I say this because whoever burned Kinzo’s body must have known Kinzo was dead. They must have either burned the original body (meaning they knew where it was and that he was dead) or prepared a double (thus knowing he was dead). They must have also had access to his key, since the key to his room was on his burnt corpse, at least in the first game. However, Krauss, Natsuhi, and Jessica’s knowledge of his death isn’t certain. We don’t get much confirmation that they know he was dead, so the possibility stands that the servants were hiding it from them (though it wouldn’t surprise me if Krauss and Natsuhi knew). But the reason I’m saying the servants definitely know he was dead was because it’s shown in Episode 2 that the only people Kinzo allows to see him are servants who bear the one winged eagle.This is why I’m intentionally leaving Kumasawa and Gouda out of this. Nanjo is also Kinzo’s doctor and friend, so it’s realistic to think that he knew about it as well, since he probably confirmed his death. This can tie into my previous theory because if we are made to believe that the perpetrator for the first twilights are all the same person, then since Kinzo was burned in the first twilight of the third game, we can say that the person who committed the first twilight can be one of the 7 mentioned above. But this is only assuming my theory is correct.
Now let’s get into my least credible theory. I don’t believe that the events of 1998 past the end of Episode 3 actually happened. However, I believe the information about the murders told afterwards was all true. Yeah, this is a stupid theory, but considering how the end of this episode shows that ridiculous reasoning like Battler’s isn’t accepted, I’m proposing the idea that the ridiculous reasoning for how Ange survived her fall of that building isn’t real either, and that her death in 1998 that was told to us in the end was because of this. Most of her story is a fabrication that is tied down to Gretel, and Gretel isn’t real. If we’re assuming Beatrice isn’t real when she is shown to have some kind of backstory, then it isn’t unreasonable to assume Gretel wasn’t real, and what we saw was a fake backstory. As to why I believe the information about the murders given wasn’t fake, I just have to say that it’s more convenient for me. As can be seen, I’m not very confident in this theory.
That’s about all the stupid theories I have for now. I don’t think we have enough information to understand who killed who in this episode, since a lot of it was muddled with the magic stuff, which while I like, makes it very hard to understand what exactly I’m supposed to believe or not. But at this point in the series, I’m not sure I know what to believe in in any of the episodes. To try to tell what’s real, I’ll just make up two rules for myself going forward. 1. Everything in Red is true, and 2. I can’t believe what happens, all I can believe in is the aftermath. Goes along the same lines as the battle in the beginning of Episode 3. If there’s no concrete evidence of magic left over, then there was no magic to begin with.
As for my thoughts on this Episode, I really liked it. I would agree with others that the Ange parts weren’t nearly as interesting as the Gameboard, but Ange’s parts did have their moments. I was really into the Maria and Sakutaro story, especially in the beginning. Although, I do think the things got incredibly slow at points, specifically when Maria was teaching Ange to use magic is when I was bored out of my mind. I also found the first time Ange’s storyline interrupted the gameboard to be very poorly placed. I was far more interested in the gameboard at that time, so having it interrupted wasn’t a pleasant experience at all.
The whole Krauss vs. The Goat scene was really really weird. Very similar to the Kyrie vs. Leviathan fight in Episode 3. The whole death flags making Krauss’ power higher felt out of place, even within this series. It makes me wonder just how magic works within this world. Or it could just be Ryukishi doing that because he thinks it’s cool. It can go either way. But the rest of the magic was interesting, I just don’t like the scenes with weird explanations, other than the basic stuff we usually get.
That’s all I have for now. You’re free to reject all my stupid theories now.
Don’t know if these have been proven false with the red truths, so I’ll write these in blue to try and explain things happening in the episodes.
Not everybody on the island is who they say they are. A person who is said to be on the island could be dead beforehand, so red truths can’t apply to this individual when the person they’re impersonating is confirmed dead.
Shannon and Kanon aren’t the characters’ real names, so the red stating them as dead means nothing to their status.
This is a bit of a bold one, but considering wording, I’ll put this one on here.
There are no more than 16 humans on Rokkenjima. This will probably eventually be answered, but until they stop saying “no more than,” we can keep reducing the numbers.