I was typing up a post that listed all of the events that Battler saw in Episode 4, in order. Then firefox crashed lol.
So I might work on getting that back thogether next week.
For now, I have a bombshell to drop, and I want it to be discussed. At the end of the Tea Party of this episode there is a credits scene for the cast.
This is a screenshot from it:
Discuss.
Hohoho, you found it I see.
Well, my mindâs reeling. Okay! Time to start throwing spaghetti at the wall, and see what sticks. My first observation is that it doesnât say when exactly Ange died. The year of 1998. Off the top of my head, though, Iâd say itâs one of three or four death-defying stunts.
When she jumped off the roof of the hospital.
When she jumped off that other building.
When Kasumiâs men shot at her on Rokkenjima and she saved herself through the power of true magic???
Before, during, or after any of these events. I like to have all my bases covered.
My second thought is ⌠well ⌠we did see her die. Or, to be more accurate, we saw the grisly aftermath. Battler, our viewpoint character, didnât see it until the end because he was asked not to look. (I canât help but detect shades of Izanagi and Izanami there, or Orpheus and Eurydice, but brother and sister instead of husband and wife.) We saw this in the Meta world, the events of which weâve more or less decided to accept as true for the sake of continuing the game. So itâs true that Ange, or an Ange, ANGE Beatrice, died. More or less. As far as the game is concerned.
But ⌠1998? The Meta world is timeless, right? (Isnât it?) Did dying in the Meta world make her die in 1998, too? Why, though? Is it a metaphor of some kind? ANGE Beatrice died by using the red truth, and breaking the rule not to reveal her identity. Is that a metaphor of some kind?
This is just dregging up all the time shenanigans I thought I resolved when I said to think of Angeâs existence as a thought experiment, or a Schrodingerâs Box paradox. Even if it is a thought experiment â how did she die???
The Ange of 1998 cannot die as a result of the actions of her Meta counterpart.
That would be equivalent to me spontaneously combusting because of the actions of some god Iâm not aware of. It defies the laws of causality in that universe.
Thatâs not to say theyâre unrelated, however. Her dying as she held Battler is definitely meant to symbolise the death of her physical body in 1998.
In addition, if she could that would be proving magic existsâŚ
Until now it seemed like someone could only ascend to the meta by dying, Battler and Kuwadorin!Beatrice certainly did. Why donât we argue from that angle, see where it gets us.
What the three floor jump onto the car? That wasnât that bad, and there were 3 people near by who really wanted her alive. So she wouldnât die instantly from that (unless she fell headfirst lol) and it seems really unlikely that sheâd die from her injuries due to nearby car and three people who need her alive.
I might be wrong but I think this is the jump from the end of Episode 3:
The problem here is clearly that Ange has jumped off too many buildings.
This is true. I said âthat other buildingâ because I got confused and combined elements of both jumps, but pictoâs right, the second jump wasnât that drastic. Too much jumping!
But it seems I was on the right track thinking about Meta Angeâs death â just in the wrong direction. Rather than saying her death in the Meta world led to her death in 1998, we could say her death in 1998 was reflected by her death in the Meta world. That hurts my brain a tiny bit less, as far as time shenanigans go. So maybe it is significant, that she died by using the red truth and revealing her identity. Admitting she was Ange â and not just Meta Ange or ANGE Beatrice, but Battlerâs sister Ushiromiya Ange â would be the same as admitting she was the Ange who died in 1998. Did she die in the beginning, when she spoke with Bern and leapt off the roof? That makes sense â weâve been bandying about the speculation that someone has to die to get to the Meta world in the first place, and thatâs when she became Bernâs piece. Is everything that follows in the world of 1998 just a âwhat if she livedâ thought experiment? What does everyone think?
There could be a fragment where she died leaping off that building, and then another fragment where her miraculous survival occurs. She ascended to the meta we know after her death in this first fragment.
Easy.
It doesnât really add anything to solving the mystery, but it is fun to participate in these discussions on the metaphysics of Umineko 
I think the requirement of needing to die to enter the Meta is unfounded, however.
Just finished Episode 4. Iâm still confused and trying to piece together the story, but Iâm just going to throw a bunch of theories and observations out there in hopes that one of them is correct (theyâre all probably trash anyway).
One observation I made that I donât think can be ignored is that in the first twilight across all episodes, there are 5 people who are not killed. These 5 are Jessica, Battler, Maria, George, and Nanjo. This can imply two things. Either the culprit (or at least someone involved) of the first twilight is one of them, or the killer has a reason to not kill these 5 specifically. It can even be both. The first twilight is a huge mystery, and most peopleâs alibis for this twilight are very sketchy, so the perpetrator can be mostly anybody. Although, I donât remember Nanjo ever having a solid alibi for these twilights, or most anything really, so Iâm saying right now that Nanjo is a very suspicious character (not to mention that his body is never found afterwards in Episode 3).
This leads me to a theory. If we assume that the killer or killers in the first twilight had a reason not to kill those 5, I can come to the conclusion that the perpetrators of the first twilight are the same across all games on the basis of consistency. And with this I am also saying that, yes, one of the perpetrators could have theoretically died on the first twilight. I have my doubts that this twilight in particular could have been done by one person considering how they essentially kill 6 people, all of whom I assume are killed around the same time. I also have more reason to believe this theory. We know from the letter that were sent to the surviving families that at the very least some of the murders on the island were planned beforehand, and also that the perpetrator had the Kinzoâs ring before the family conference (though it can also be said that Kinzo wrote those letters himself and died between their sending and the conference). Because some of the murders were at least planned, we have to ask which murders were planned. And to this I say that the first twilight was planned. This is mainly for the fact that itâs the twilight that sparks everything, and also because itâs the most consistent of all the twilights. The twilights donât always happen in order, and with the second twilight, there isnât a stake for that one in the third episode. Itâs very odd, so the first twilight stands out to me as something more calculated and planned. Of course there are flaws to this argument such as how the 5 people not dying specifically could just be a coincidence, but Iâm still throwing this out there.
I also have a bit of another theory to throw out that is a bit more credible and can go together with my previous one. The person who âkilledâ Kinzo across all games can only be Genji, Nanjo, Kanon, Shannon, Krauss, Natsuhi, or Jessica. I say this because whoever burned Kinzoâs body must have known Kinzo was dead. They must have either burned the original body (meaning they knew where it was and that he was dead) or prepared a double (thus knowing he was dead). They must have also had access to his key, since the key to his room was on his burnt corpse, at least in the first game. However, Krauss, Natsuhi, and Jessicaâs knowledge of his death isnât certain. We donât get much confirmation that they know he was dead, so the possibility stands that the servants were hiding it from them (though it wouldnât surprise me if Krauss and Natsuhi knew). But the reason Iâm saying the servants definitely know he was dead was because itâs shown in Episode 2 that the only people Kinzo allows to see him are servants who bear the one winged eagle.This is why Iâm intentionally leaving Kumasawa and Gouda out of this. Nanjo is also Kinzoâs doctor and friend, so itâs realistic to think that he knew about it as well, since he probably confirmed his death. This can tie into my previous theory because if we are made to believe that the perpetrator for the first twilights are all the same person, then since Kinzo was burned in the first twilight of the third game, we can say that the person who committed the first twilight can be one of the 7 mentioned above. But this is only assuming my theory is correct.
Now letâs get into my least credible theory. I donât believe that the events of 1998 past the end of Episode 3 actually happened. However, I believe the information about the murders told afterwards was all true. Yeah, this is a stupid theory, but considering how the end of this episode shows that ridiculous reasoning like Battlerâs isnât accepted, Iâm proposing the idea that the ridiculous reasoning for how Ange survived her fall of that building isnât real either, and that her death in 1998 that was told to us in the end was because of this. Most of her story is a fabrication that is tied down to Gretel, and Gretel isnât real. If weâre assuming Beatrice isnât real when she is shown to have some kind of backstory, then it isnât unreasonable to assume Gretel wasnât real, and what we saw was a fake backstory. As to why I believe the information about the murders given wasnât fake, I just have to say that itâs more convenient for me. As can be seen, Iâm not very confident in this theory.
Thatâs about all the stupid theories I have for now. I donât think we have enough information to understand who killed who in this episode, since a lot of it was muddled with the magic stuff, which while I like, makes it very hard to understand what exactly Iâm supposed to believe or not. But at this point in the series, Iâm not sure I know what to believe in in any of the episodes. To try to tell whatâs real, Iâll just make up two rules for myself going forward. 1. Everything in Red is true, and 2. I canât believe what happens, all I can believe in is the aftermath. Goes along the same lines as the battle in the beginning of Episode 3. If thereâs no concrete evidence of magic left over, then there was no magic to begin with.
As for my thoughts on this Episode, I really liked it. I would agree with others that the Ange parts werenât nearly as interesting as the Gameboard, but Angeâs parts did have their moments. I was really into the Maria and Sakutaro story, especially in the beginning. Although, I do think the things got incredibly slow at points, specifically when Maria was teaching Ange to use magic is when I was bored out of my mind. I also found the first time Angeâs storyline interrupted the gameboard to be very poorly placed. I was far more interested in the gameboard at that time, so having it interrupted wasnât a pleasant experience at all.
The whole Krauss vs. The Goat scene was really really weird. Very similar to the Kyrie vs. Leviathan fight in Episode 3. The whole death flags making Kraussâ power higher felt out of place, even within this series. It makes me wonder just how magic works within this world. Or it could just be Ryukishi doing that because he thinks itâs cool. It can go either way. But the rest of the magic was interesting, I just donât like the scenes with weird explanations, other than the basic stuff we usually get.
Thatâs all I have for now. Youâre free to reject all my stupid theories now.
Edit:
Donât know if these have been proven false with the red truths, so Iâll write these in blue to try and explain things happening in the episodes.
Not everybody on the island is who they say they are. A person who is said to be on the island could be dead beforehand, so red truths canât apply to this individual when the person theyâre impersonating is confirmed dead.
Shannon and Kanon arenât the charactersâ real names, so the red stating them as dead means nothing to their status.
This is a bit of a bold one, but considering wording, Iâll put this one on here.
There are no more than 16 humans on Rokkenjima. This will probably eventually be answered, but until they stop saying âno more than,â we can keep reducing the numbers.
No thatâs very compelling actually! It stands to reason that the one who organised Kinzoâs âdeathâ was somebody who knew about it, narrowing the list down significantly. And we know that Kinzo was killed in the first twilight of Episode 3. If we follow your reasoning about a consistent culprit, does that mean you suspect Nanjo as the original perpetrator behind everything?
I think Nanjo is very very likely, but I think that heâs working with other people (Genji is pretty much guaranteed), I mean, this would help explain who put the letter in Episode 1, since both of them were in the room.
Hello pik3rob, welcome to our little fragment. Thatâs some really nice theories youâve got there.
Thatâs shockingly simple, and honestly works, and really helps with covering my bases. If feel really dumb for not thinking of that haha.
You probably noticed how rare it is for Battler to see Kanonâs corpse, in fact Iâm pretty sure it never happens. With a way to defy his death in the red truth, alot of the seemingly impossible tricks become easy.
Now THATâS premature! Just to give one possibility where than falls apart, Kumasawa pickpocketed the key from Genji (while he slept), as she was worried about not seeing Kinzo in so long. She unlocked the door (thinking he would be asleep) and couldnât find him in there/found his corpse there.
I say that that one, doesnât hold
Valid, however, you should keep in mind that you have to deny Battler existing as well under your reasoning. Weâve framed our objective as to prove that Magic does not exist in the real world. We donât care about displays of magic within the meta. This means we donât have to go to the lengths youâre going to, to us Gretel can still exist.
If Battler didnât see it, you can probably discard it as not necessarily happening. Thatâs the rule everyone else is playing under.
Everything else you posted seems pretty legit to be honest.
Since it seems you havenât read through the thread up to this point (understandable considering how long it is) Iâll give you the most important quote from it, weâll see where it puts you.
So yeah, we should probably keep that in mind.
Our little witch hunters are growing up so fast 
We still donât know how the Meta works or how it can âexist,â so Iâm still holding onto the idea that nothing in the meta exists except for Battler.
I donât agree with this rule. Battler sees a lot of supernatural things on the game board. The entire ending of Episode 2 comes to mind. Because of this Iâm able to discard a lot of things even Battler sees.
Kuhuhuhuhu. I covered that in this post. But youâre a busy person, I get it, Iâll show you the relevant part:
Come pik3rob! You did say âBattler sees a lot of supernatural things on the game board.â. What else? What other things did Battler see? To discard things that Battler sees arbitrarily is to make our little game with the witch too easy.
By that same logic, we could discard any problematic scene (like the whole set-up at the end of Ep 1), and only rely on the red, making things faaaaaar too simple, and easy to move around.
#WE NEED A CLEAR RULE FOR WHICH SCENES TO DISREGARD, OTHERWISE THE MYSTERY IS FAR TOO EASY TO SOLVE
More lazy than anything, but point taken.
Okay then. how about this rule then. Anything Battler sees or is within his vicinity on the game board is true, except any supernatural elements or references to them by other characters (I include this because even with your drunken coma thing, youâd still have to justify things like the phone calls from Kyrie, Gouda and Kumasawaâs explanation of the first twilight, and Jessicaâs phone call). His knowledge of other characters and their whereabouts are true as long as he himself 100% confirms it without any room for argument.
from the 4 question arcs, hereâs my ranking:
3>4>2>1
