Umineko Episode 4 Spoiler-Free General

[pictoshark]

Hoy! mimsy! We could start a back and forth here if you want too.

Ushiromiya Battler has a sin.
Because of (this) sin, people die.
(…) A great many humans on this island die.
No one escapes, all die.
The sin (…) is not between Ushiromiya Battler and Beatrice.
Six years ago (for Battler) no person called Beatrice existed.

An important thing to remember is that Sins are subjective and they are defined by humans. A sin is not necessarily an evil act, it could merely be an act that another human takes issue with. Therefore, almost any act taken by a human being could be defined as a sin. Beatrice using the noun “sin” tells us nothing of the nature of what Battler did. It doesn’t even tell us if it inconvenienced anyone at the time. Just the mere fact that it caused the murders could lead to it being referred to as a sin.

All this tells us is that all of the murders have a root cause, and that root cause can be traced back to Battler. Reaching any other conclusions without additional evidence is overly hasty, and rash.

So what, Battler had no interest in the Ushiromiya name for six years, doesn’t come to any of the family conferences, and the year he does is the year they’re discussing the inheritance and everything goes wrong?

I think talking about this could actually be quite important. We know Battler’s Sin causes everyone’s deaths. In addition these deaths all occur as soon as Battler comes back into the picture after a long break. We could just chalk it up to coincidence, but it seems pretty likely that the killer specifically wants Battler dead and isn’t just killing him because he’s there.

Also part of MY wall of text up above supposed the following theory to solve the “Who am I?” ridddle.

Beatrice is the concept of the Rokkenjima Killings. Therefore, if Battler kills himself from stress amassed from the killings, then it could be said that “Beatrice killed him”.

Unfortunately @mimsy here has reminded me of a veeeeeeery unfortunate fact that completely disproves my theory.

those two actually had a conversation like that in this place

If Kinzo has spoken to Beatrice, and the existence of their conversation has been confirmed by the red, then I can’t go around insisting Beatrice is a concept now, can I?

HOWEVER, thanks to this brief discussion about how Battler seems to be (at least part of) the root cause of everything I believe I now have a means of attack, a new theory.

Beatrice is the Beatrice who was locked up in Kuwadorin and died. She ascended to the metaworld through the same unknown means which allowed Battler to do so. She was a part of the root cause of the killings. Therefore, if Battler kills himself from stress amassed from the killings, then it could be said that “Beatrice killed him”.

And I can already hear your objections audience! Yet I [Beatrice] am here, now, and am about to kill you.

I’ve got this! Beatrice is “here”, her corpse is still on the island! Kinzo had it discovered by his assistants who help in the upkeep at Kuwadorin. He then kept her body in a suitable location, such as her previous bedroom, and it remains there to this very day.

Also I feel people are ignoring (or just not expressing) how much of a big deal "Kinzo is already dead at the starting time for all games!" really is. It brings into question the motivation and circumstances of anyone and everyone who confirms his existence in the study. We must question ALL of them. And it also questions a belief we’ve held since around 33% of the way through Episode 3.

“We can’t trust anything Battler didn’t see, We can trust anything Battler did see.”

Previously I could shrug off the insanity at the end of Episode 2 with all sorts of methods, e.g: The scene is from the point of view of an omniscient Narrator, Battler cannot be described as seeing it because Battler has already lost all sense of self. Battler is never referred to by name by the narrator in that scene, maybe after he surrendered and became the witches furniture, he was sent off to some storage place, and the furniture that dressed and accompanied Beatrice wasn’t actually Battler. Maybe the one that dressed Beatrice was, but the one that came down the stairs with her was not, the list of possible ways of dodging it go on and on.

However Battler clearly saw Kinzo in that room. He clearly saw Kinzo alive. But we know from the red that Kinzo was long dead by this point. Unless we can redefine our rules for what we can trust, then we won’t be able to trust ANYTHING Battler sees, which makes it almost impossible to come to any conclusions about anything.

I figure I may as well (try to) answer your questions.

Who is Ushiromiya Battler?
One of the grandsons of Kinzo?

Who is the Meta Battler, and who is the Battler of the gameboard?
As covered in the Episode 2 tea party podcast, it seems likely that Meta Battler is the Battler who died in Episode 1. Gameboard Battler appears to be the Battler’s of each of the games, just like every other game piece.

Are they the same, or different, and how did they become different?
The nature of the Meta World, as well as how Battler ascended to it, appear to be a complete mystery for now.

Who was Battler born from, if not Asumu?
Probably someone Rudolf had sex with. In all seriousness though, I’d say the most likely candidate is Kyrie.

Does it matter?
It would mean that Kyrie or Rudolf would have had a reason to conceal that from him.

What was Battler’s sin?
Specifically? Ummmmmmmmm. I got nothing.

Why doesn’t he remember it?
As theorized by me, it may have not been a particularly notable event for him. Another theory (assuming the sin involves the Ushiromiyas), he was what, 12 (at the oldest) when it could have potentially happened. Maybe we forgot in the time that passed?

How did it lead to the deaths on the island?
Refer to my answer for “What was Battler’s sin?”.

And what has Beatrice so sulky?
She realized she has to act really out of character and show Battler a scene of her randomly roasting Kinzo in order to keep his death a secret. She knew it was only a matter of time until Battler saw through that, and was feeling like a sore loser at the time.

I have a question for YOU mimsy! If there’s any one else reading I’ve love for them to answer too. Just using your memory, thinking off the top of your head, How does Kinzo’s being dead from the start change the mystery and the likely suspects?

[mimsy]

This is definitely a game that gets you thinking! Lots of good thoughts here, @pictoshark. Let’s see, let’s see …

I have a question for YOU mimsy! If there’s any one else reading I’ve love for them to answer too. Just using your memory, thinking off the top of your head, How does Kinzo’s being dead from the start change the mystery and the likely suspects?

First off thank you for giving me permission to go from my memory and off the top off my head. There are some things I’d like to reread and double-check – who was shown speaking to Kinzo and when, who was the perspective character at the time, did they tell anyone else, etc … Natsuhi, Genji, Kanon, and Shannon come to mind. Did Nanjo speak to him, too, or was that only in flashbacks? And of course, Krauss spoke to him from outside the door … Hm. Before tangling with a specific case, let’s try to build some general principles.

If any character claims to have seen or spoken to Kinzo, they must have a reason for doing so.

That’s nice and general, right? It leaves room for multiple, equally acceptable reasons.

1. They know Kinzo is dead, and they are trying to maintain the illusion.

Krauss, for example, whenever he makes a production out of going to shout at Kinzo’s door. Natushi, the servants of the One-Winged Eagle, Nanjo, and even Jessica could fall in this category, as well. It would seem strange for Genji in particular not to know. But if Krauss is willing to keep secrets like the gold ingot from his wife … is it possible Natsuhi would not know?

2. They don’t know Kinzo is dead, and have been deceived.

This could be anyone who only speaks to Kinzo through his door, or who only sees his back. Either someone is throwing voices, pretending to be Kinzo, or playing a recording of one of Kinzo’s rants. This could, by the way, explain the obsessive behavior and dramatic mood swings we see in Kinzo. There are a limited number of recordings, mostly rants about magic and Beatrice. (Plus he really was that obsessed when he was alive. But now he repeats himself a lot.) The noxious smell coming from Kinzo’s study could be part of the deception … perhaps to make it seem like Kinzo is still alive and dabbling in alchemical arts, or perhaps to mask the chemicals used to preserve the body. From a distance, Kinzo’s body could still be a useful prop.

3. They may or may not know Kinzo is dead, but they need an alibi for that time.

It’s not an airtight alibi if they think Kinzo is alive and could contradict them, but considering how long he’s been cooped up in his room, and how little he likes to answer stupid questions, it’s a safe bet to take. If they’re the culprit, they can try to kill everyone before anyone manages to get the truth from Kinzo. And if they know Kinzo’s dead, well, the dead tell no tales. This makes everyone who used Kinzo as an alibi during the murders suspicious, but it also gives them a reason to lie other than being the murderer. It’s a double-edged sword.

4. They have petty, human reasons for lying – pride, etc.

This is the simplest explanation for Natushi’s conversation with Kinzo in the first episode. She didn’t speak to Kinzo at all, but at that point Eva wound her up so much that she couldn’t admit defeat … and then Eva just made things worse by harping on the receipt.

For some reason, though, I don’t really like that. Even in scenes where we can’t trust what we’re seeing, I like to think there’s a core of truth. Maybe she did use Genji’s key, maybe she did see or hear something in the study. And whatever it was, it was responsible for her change in mood when she went back to see Eva – her stronger, more confident mood.

Okay! So to sum up – if Kinzo is dead, then no one spoke to Kinzo. Anytime someone’s claimed as much, we have to question their reasons for making that claim. There are a selection of non-murdery reasons, but it makes any use of Kinzo as an alibi suspicious. Knowing Kinzo is dead, or discovering Kinzo is dead, could motivate different characters in different ways.

We should most closely examine instances where one character makes that claim to another. Spin the chessboard around, think about what that character has to gain. But we should probably also examine instances where the narrator is making the claim … just in case there’s some core of truth there.

One more thing, though. In two or more gameboards, Kinzo’s badly burnt body was found. (I say two or more because yeah, now that I think about it, he does get burned at the end of this episode, too. The police probably find him that way. Thank you, @pictoshark!) This may not really be his body – it may be a fake with polydactyl, planted to obscure the true culprit – but I will put forward the theory that it is Kinzo’s body, which has been preserved by chemicals, and it was burned to obscure that fact as well as to obscure the time of his death. The fumes smelled so awful not just because it was burning flesh, but because of the chemicals within the corpse.

This is a crucial piece of information! I think it’s crucial across the gameboard, but it’s most crucial in episodes one and three. In episodes one and three, Kinzo’s body was presented as a sacrifice. In episode one, his head was gouged with the Stake of Mammon, and in episode three, he was one of the six chosen by the key. What’s with that?! Can you sacrifice a dead man? Is that legal? Beaaaaaatriiiiiice!!!

(I can hear Beatrice cackling. ‘Life or death isn’t a problem for me! I can revive Kinzo and sacrifice him, again and again and again!!!’)

Okay, okay, forget what Beatrice thinks. Instead of saying ‘he was a sacrifice,’ let’s say ‘he was presented as though he was supposed to be part of this ritual series of murders.’ My first thought was that it could just be a coincidence – someone in on the conspiracy to keep Kinzo’s death a secret could have torched the body at the same time the murders started. But then the culprit just accepts it, goes ‘sure, I’ll use this one’ and stuck a stake in there?

The culprit, too, is making a claim that they encountered Kinzo. This is another claim we should examine very closely.

… Ultimately, the episode these principles heck up the most is this episode, where people are claiming to have seen Kinzo left and right. It seems to be for reason 2, they were deceived, but … let me hastily propose another reason.

5. Their claim was influenced by someone else.

Slight digression, when I play, I constantly check the UI to see if there are updates in the character list – when someone goes missing, or a body is found, or a new face is introduced on the witch side. In this episode, bodies kept hitting the floor, but no new deaths were added to the character list. This was consistent with previous episodes, where the deaths weren’t added until the ‘main party’ found the bodies, but … who is the main party in this case? Battler’s investigation sequence made that really obvious. Oh. It’s the party with Battler in it. What matters is what Battler sees, hears, knows. It’s probably been Battler the whole time.

For most of the fourth episode, Battler only hears about the deaths second-hand and over the phone. And he hears about Kinzo that way, too. IIRC Kinzo doesn’t speak to him directly, he has the parents pass the message. His parents who can only say what the culprit wants them to say, who are encouraged to keep chatter to a minimum – they say it’s Kinzo making them speak, and we’re supposed to believe that?

But you’re right that this makes the end of the second episode superweird, too. There Battler does see Kinzo with his own eyes. Is it for reason 2, is he being deceived? How?

Beaaaaatriiiiice!!!

An important thing to remember is that Sins are subjective and they are defined by humans. A sin is not necessarily an evil act, it could merely be an act that another human takes issue with. Therefore, almost any act taken by a human being could be defined as a sin. Beatrice using the noun “sin” tells us nothing of the nature of what Battler did. It doesn’t even tell us if it inconvenienced anyone at the time. Just the mere fact that it caused the murders could lead to it being referred to as a sin.

This made something click in my head, though it was a soft and inconclusive click. Like the first number in a combination lock. There are a lot of biblical influences in Umineko, right? It’s scripture snuck into magical circles, but it’s scripture nevertheless. Not to mention the references to Dante with Beatrice, Virgil, the seven sins … ‘forgive the sin’ is even the incantation to invoke the sisters.

So maybe it’s something like ‘the sins of the father are visited upon the children, and the children’s children’? That does seem to be a theme in Umineko. It’s a theme in Maria’s family – when Rosa speaks to Maria with harsh words, they’re words that were spoken to Rosa at some point in her childhood. Humans pass on their sins to the next generation. So maybe Battler’s sin isn’t even his, or it isn’t just his. It’s the Ushiromiya family’s.

Hey, a couple of episodes ago didn’t Battler speculate that the human Beato was Beatrice’s and Kinzo’s secret daughter, who she died giving birth to? If that’s true, then she’s an Ushiromiya, too. And if she’s also the concept of the Rokkenjima killings, like @pictoshark is saying …

Hmmm. Hmm. I may be getting too metaphysical again.

I think talking about this could actually be quite important. We know Battler’s Sin causes everyone’s deaths. In addition these deaths all occur as soon as Battler comes back into the picture after a long break. We could just chalk it up to coincidence, but it seems pretty likely that the killer specifically wants Battler dead and isn’t just killing him because he’s there.

It’s interesting, then, that Battler doesn’t get killed until the very end. Mostly he gets broken. He sees his family torn apart, and has to doubt and suspect that very same family. He has to witness all their sins. Maybe that’s it? It certainly does support the idea that what kills Battler in the end is the concept of the Rokkenjima Killings.

Hmmmmmmmmmmm.

[pictoshark]

Another point which we may want to iron out is when Kinzo died. The red that verifies his death is VERY unspecific, all it says is that he is dead at the “start time” of the games. I mean, what the hell does the start time of the games even mean? How and why did Kinzo die?

Another thing, what is the nature of the false scenes we are shown? Does Beatrice have full control over what we see in them? If that’s the case, why did she show Battler the scene where the siblings discuss the possibility of Kinzo being dead? That gave Battler an amazing foothold to continue his attack, the less Battler knows about the truth, the better. If he continued on the incorrect Assumption that Kinzo was alive, he would have wasted LOADS of time. Why reveal that to him? Does Beatrice actually want to die?

But enough about the over arching narrative, let’s talk about Ep 4’s case. It’s quite a simple case, as Battler is seriously lacking in information here but the information he DOES have is incredibly limiting. I’m surprised Beatrice conceded defeat for this case so DAMN quickly in the tea party, there are SO MANY unsolved mysteries here.

How was the tool shed locked room constructed? The key was in Gohda’s pocket…

Why did Gohda+Kumasawa’s story line up so well with Kyrie’s?

Who is the killer? Did they kill themselves at the end, or did they die through an accident?

Why did Jessica know what she knew in her phone call? How would one know that their head will be destroyed next time they are found? How did she know George was dead?

Who was the Beatrice who spoke with Battler about his sin? It’s probably someone disguised as someone else, but if so, who?

What’s the deal with everything Kyrie tells Battler? Why is she almost directly supporting magic?

Has anyone got anything to say about any of these?

[Aspirety]

If it helps any, you can rest assured that the mysteries of Rokkenjima are entirely solvable from this point. Yes, that includes Battler’s sin from six years ago. As far as the mystery is concerned the remaining episodes are supplementary material to help guide your thinking.

Regarding the questionability of Battler’s perceptions, that’s not the only time they were questionable. At the end of Episode 1 he saw a storm of golden butterflies as Beatrice appeared, and at the end of Episode 4 he actually had a conversation with Beatrice. I don’t think it’s productive to start doubting everything Battler sees, but at the very least you need to find a way to reconcile with these problematic moments.

Also @mimsy you posted 4. twice.

But seriously, great discussion guys. I hope you are able to generate some theories of Beatrice’s identity by the time the Tea Party concludes, and close in on the heart of the mystery.

[pictoshark]

At the end of Episode 1 he saw a storm of golden butterflies as Beatrice appeared, and at the end of Episode 4 he actually had a conversation with Beatrice

Are the butterflies a signal of incoming unreliable Battler? Episode 4 Beatrice discussion didn’t have butterflies because that could be reasonably be explained by disguises and such, the person who disguised as Beatrice could have died later on, before Battler then found their body… You know what, I think I’ll lock that in, if only because it explains away two VERY problematic moments.

If Gameboard Battler sees Golden butterflies, then what he sees cannot be trusted. This invalidates the proofs of magic of Kinzo’s appearance at the end of EP 2 and Beatrice’s appearance at the end of EP 1.

[Aspirety]

Hoh. Interesting. That’s the same sort of logic that critics of time paradoxes use. A time paradox cannot exist because if it did exist at any point in the timeline, our universe could not exist. The golden butterflies mark unreliable narration because golden butterflies can’t exist. It’s a bit of circular logic, but I’m interested to see how far that reasoning can take you.

It’s convenient, then, that Battler only sees the golden butterflies at the end of each Episode.

EDIT: I just made a big mistake that’s probably mislead you a little… Turns out there were no butterflies back in Episode 1, it was just Beatrice appearing beside Maria in her dress. I guess it was the sound effects that lead me to think that way? Or maybe I’m just remembering the anime version which did have butterflies…

So, well, I guess there’s only one case where the butterflies appeared before Battler, and that’s Episode 2. Sorry to mislead you.

[pictoshark]

tfw you’ll never be as articulate as Aspirety

PS: This is a joke, I don’t actually (joke spoilers) want to kill myself.

PPS: I know using spoiler tags for none spoiler is technically a rule infraction, but I think it counts, as the disclaimer spoils the joke soooooooo (please no ban).

---

Alright! Now I’ve got my GDA for jokes in poor taste out of the way, let’s line up some stupid Umineko theories while I compose my notes from my reread of Ep 1.

The way Beatrice corrects the number of people on the island has revealed a sort of GIANT problem

[quote=http://umineko.wikia.com/wiki/Red_Truth ]Kinzo is already dead at the starting time for all games!
Before now, I have proclaimed that no more than 18 humans exist on this island.
I will lower that by one for Kinzo!!
No more than 17 humans exist on this island!!
That excludes any 18th person.
In short, this 18th person X does not exist!!
This applies to all games!!![/quote]

This means that the dead (probably) don’t count towards the “number of humans existing on the island” variable. We can tell this because we find Kinzo’s corpse a LOT. Even if that corpse isn’t Kinzo, it’s still (probably) a human body.

There are three basic possibilities here (and of course the stupid fourth one):

1. Dead people don’t count towards the “number of humans existing on the island” variable.

2. Dead people DO count towards the “number of humans existing on the island” variable, but the Kinzo corpse was a mannequin or something similar

3. Dead people DO count towards the “number of humans existing on the island” variable, and we have a BIG trick to unravel. (like Nanjo was really Genji in disguise the whole time or something)

4. Just for completeness, I’ll note that the Red truth COULD be fallible. It’s a possibility, as much of a bad writing choice as it would be, it’s still a possibility.

I’m hoping for number 1, as 2 and 3 DESTROY my Beatrice theory. (or at least, make it hard to recover from).

In addition, 1 presents a number of ways for a mystery person X to still commit the crime. What if, for example, after at least one person died, a mystery person X arrived on the island through a powerful, sturdy boat of unknown construction that is capable of reaching Rokkenjima even through the typhoon.

Using this method it is possible for a killing to be committed by a human even if everyone has a alibi, by supposing that a paid assassin or something similar arrived after the first twilight.

[Aspirety]

Be careful trusting that wiki, I’m pretty sure it’s based on the old translation.

[pictoshark]

There’s no way the wording can mess THIS point up. Also maybe getting a red truth list for the new translation up somewhere on the site might be a good idea? Even if it was only up to date for the current tea party. In fact I think it might be really good if was up to the current tea party. Huh, might be an idea.

[mimsy]

Okay! I went to replay a couple of scenes from this episode before diving back into the discussion. I picked and chose and played with time travel, so I’m sure I missed something important. But I wanted to look at carefully at three things: Gohda’s and Kumasawa’s initial testimony, Jessica’s final phone call with Battler, and Kyrie’s final phone call with Battler.

I’d like to make an argument from human nature. There’s something called the Rashomon effect – it’s when multiple witnesses to an event produce conflicting testimonies, not because any one of them is lying, but because each is speaking from their own perspective. When we encounter something inexplicable and dangerous, we hasten to put it into context so we know what to do next. But our context is not always the same as person next to us.

In other words, it wouldn’t be strange to see characters disagreeing about what happened that night. One could say the victims were hit by a golden beam like magic, another could say it was the laser sight of a sniper rifle, one could say they saw and heard Kinzo giving the orders, another could say they heard Kinzo’s voice and assumed, etc, etc.

It’d be stranger, actually, to see them all agreeing. And it’s especially strange seeing them agree on one particular point. That’s what I’d like to examine.

Why did Gohda+Kumasawa’s story line up so well with Kyrie’s?

… Okay, first things first, I have to admit I wasn’t able to find the exact words Gohda and Kumasawa’s testimony paging through the text. I don’t think the exact words were given, someone says ‘it was, it was …!’ and then the game cuts to the dungeon. I think later on Battler says Godha was cagey and inexact, which is human nature.

If someone can point me to the text clarifying, though, I’d appreciate it! Let’s focus on Jessica and Kyrie, shall we?

What’s the deal with everything Kyrie tells Battler? Why is she almost directly supporting magic?

So I initially I read Kyrie’s words very charitably. Here’s (some of) what she says: 'If … a demon or witch does appear in front you … There’s no need whatsoever to doubt whether it’s real or not. … Understand that it is what it seems to be.
You might think there must be some trick, or that there’s some true hidden nature behind it. … If you have time to think of something like that, … it’d be much more constructive to plan out how not to damage the mood of whatever you’re facing. … Even mistakenly, … you must not say ‘In that case, try showing me magic’ … … Because to prove that, they’ll probably even use an even crueler way … to show you.

This is practical, not metaphysical advice. Kyrie believes she is about to die, and she wants Battler to survive where she could not. She’s telling him not to waste time thinking about whether or not magic exists. She’s telling him not to underestimate the danger, or to think it’s some illusion he can just step through. Whether or not the power used to kill everyone else was magic, it still killed them. If the culprit wants Battler to think it was magic, fine. Go along with it. But don’t provoke the culprit, get out of this alive, or else the truth will never be discovered.

That’s the subtext of what she says next, I think:

I understand. I understand why you can’t believe.
… So that’s why I give you this advice.
Believe.
Even after being shown things not of this world so clearly, … I still think we weren’t able to believe any of it. I’m still like that. The true form of this thing that keeps attacking me, trying to shoot through my forehead, … is something I don’t understand, … and I can’t believe it.
So, … I want you alone to believe, to understand, … to accept the existence … of what we couldn’t accept. If you do that for me, our deaths won’t be wasted. … It’ll also been worth it for me to make this phone call.

It’s not ‘believe in witches, because witches exist.’ It’s ‘believe and behave as though witches exist, so you can get through this.’

Man, Kyrie is so cool, isn’t she? She’ll never know the truth of what happened or why she had to die, but she reaches out to Battler so he can find the truth himself. She believes in the importance of the truth so much, she uses her final moments to tell him everything she knows!

Wait. Wait. Let’s rewind. What does she tell him, again?

Then, Kyrie spoke … about Kinzo appearing and the family conference starting, … about the six being killed and the five of them being contained …
… About how she escaped somehow … and ran away to where she was now, and how everyone had finally been killed … It was all spoken dispassionately, with no dramatization, just as she had seen it.

Oh, no.

We’re already in trouble, aren’t we? She told him Kinzo was at the family conference. We know that can’t be true. And one of the principles I tried to establish was if any character claims to have seen or spoken to Kinzo, they must have a reason for doing so. We have to spin the chessboard around, and question Kyrie’s motives. But I like Kyrie! Was she the culprit casting blame on Kinzo so she could cover her tracks? Battler found her body later, unlike Kanon’s, but she could’ve been found out and killed in revenge or self-defense, for all we know. Like @pictoshark said, there’s not a lot to go on with this gameboard.

But I definitely tried to give lots of non-murdery reasons for someone saying they saw Kinzo. Like number three, she was deceived, or number five (heh, thanks for the correction, @aspirety), her claim was influenced by someone else.

What about this? The culprit was with her, had a gun or whatever weapon was used aimed at her, and told her to call Battler and tell him Kinzo killed everyone with magic. Kyrie is clever, so she slips what hints of the truth she can. She says outright ‘the true form of this thing that keeps attacking her’ is with her, and she doesn’t believe it’s magical. But she veils it in telling Battler to believe, so the culprit allows it. It’s only when she says it would have been ‘worth it for me to make this phone call’ that she gets killed, because she’s indirectly referring to the fact that the phone call was forced by the culprit, and the culprit doesn’t want her to say any more. Will something like that work?

But there’s one more thing I wanted to look at, remember? Let’s rewind even further, to another phonecall.

Listen to me, Battler! Listen closely, okay…?
Now I totally see why Godha-san and Kumasawa-san were evasive about the six that got killed in the dining hall. … Those guys … aren’t Human.
I saw it, so what was I supposed to do?!! Those guys warp and set up barriers, ahhaha, and do whatever they want, okay…? It’s like some kind of manga, or anime…hell, and we seriously can’t keep up …
Ahhahhahhah… … From the very beginning, fighting was useless… They really aren’t opponents you’ll be able to fight with that hat-stand spear you’re so proud of…
George-niisan’s done for, too. That… was an instant death… Heheh, the next test is yours, Battler. … I wonder if your test will go the same way as ours.
… Be careful, and don’t misunderstand.
No. … Don’t misunderstand…and assume your enemy’s Human. …The enemy…isn’t Human.
… They’re demons…that can freely wield a terrifying magic. No matter what, don’t get the wrong idea about that… cough,coughcough!! Be…careful…

Okay, first I have to note: when she laughs in this text, there are extra h’s, ahhahha instead of ahaha, like it’s not so much as a laugh as a struggle for breath – and at the end, she even starts coughing. It’s easy to forget in that heart-pumping magical battle that this is a girl with weak lungs.

But I also have to note : she’s basically saying the same thing as Kyrie. Don’t underestimate the culprit. Don’t assume they’re a human like you, if assuming will get you killed like me. Believe.

But I’m making an argument from human nature. On the surface, this makes the argument for magic stronger. Two sources Battler trusts contacted him, independent of one another, to tell him to believe magic is killing people on this island. Jessica and Kyrie weren’t even together at any point, that we know of, to discuss the situation and come to a consensus.

But doesn’t that just make it stranger, and more against human nature? If multiple people witnessing a traumatic event have a hard time coming to the same conclusion about it, why are these two people agreeing on this point and this point alone? Why did they both decide to contact Battler to tell him this, when they could do or say anything? I think someone has forced them both. Someone who has a vested interest in convincing Battler that the forces responsible for the Rokkenjima killings aren’t human.

Which brings us back to ‘what is so special about Battler?’

There’s definitely more to talk about like Kinzo’s death and ‘no, seriously, who is Beatrice?’ (The Beatrice in the rain, the Beatrice who is about to kill Battler, the Beatrice in Kuwadorian …) And now that @aspirety has confirmed we have enough information to find out what Battler’s sin is, I really want to figure it out! But this is what I have for now.

[pictoshark]

As promised in the EP 3 thread. Here is the sheet.

Sins.xlsx

Don’t worry it’s all automatic, if you want to help out just download it, fill in the EP 4 column and then post it back up here. (Make sure you spell the sins right).

Also the red truth I was referring to in that post was Kinzo is dead at the start time of all games, because if he’s dead at the start, then he obviously can’t die again at the fourth twilight.

[mimsy]

Hm, so here’s an odd/interesting fact – there’s no Witch’s Game Record for the fourth episode. This could be to support the illusion that Kinzo committed all the murders and not the witch … in which case you’re right, @pictoshark, to doubt the perspective the Game Records are coming from. (That makes me want to look at them closer, though, because that’s the sort of investigator I am. What does the Game Record represent? Is it a list of the claims of the witch? If we can find consistencies or contradictions among them, can that strengthen any arguments against her? Like the contradiction you pointed out, with the red truth of Kinzo’s death … I’ll have to give it more thought.)

I might still be able to go through the episode itself, and see who was gouged with what stake … but thinking back, was anyone gouged with a stake that we saw? Aren’t those supposedly necessary for the witch’s resurrection? Not that witches exist, but if someone’s going to argue for the witch’s side, they should get their story straight …

While we’re here, let’s whisper about things only people who’ve read the fourth episode know! And then whisper further about whether we actually know them. In the third episode thread, we’re talking about the role of Nanjo’s character, the motive someone could have for killing him, and whether he has some sort of ‘sin.’ Now that we know Kinzo’s dead at the start of all games, Nanjo’s position on the island becomes even more precarious. Thoughts?

In the fourth episode, Nanjo is also very familiar with the layout of Kinzo’s secret mansion. We might not be able to trust this information, given the context – if we accept Nanjo helped everyone escape the secret mansion’s dungeon, do we have to accept Kanon cut through steel bars or they were pursued by goat demons?

But we know a secret mansion exists on the island, and we know a human Beatrice lived there. It might be worth asking. If Nanjo does know about Kuwadorian, how much does he know? Let’s go with the theory that the human Beatrice is the daughter of Kinzo’s mistress, and Kinzo raised her in secret, believing her to be the reincarnation of her mother. Maybe Nanjo delivered her, or attended to her health. So does that he mean he knew Kinzo was keeping a young girl imprisoned and ignorant of the world, and grooming her to be his mistress? That’s … really creepy. Maybe knowing that, and doing nothing about it, was Nanjo’s sin of sloth. After all, if we believe Rosa’s testimony, it was Beatrice’s ignorance of the world that lead to her death.

[pictoshark]

and grooming her to be his mistress? That’s … really creepy.

I read into that subtext and was equally creeped out, yeah.

I was watching the Ep 3 ??? and would advise you to go do the same. If we’re trying to figure out “Who aaaaaaaam I?” then it contains a goldmine of useful stuff. If anything it’s making me stand even firmer by my original theory. As you seem to still be online, gogogo! It will only take 15 minutes to read, maximum. I’ll be working up my real response to your post while you do that.

I might still be able to go through the episode itself, and see who was gouged with what stake … but thinking back, was anyone gouged with a stake that we saw?

Oh shit. You’re right. I almost completely forgot about that. Is it possible that the culprit and motive for EP 4 is vastly different from EPs 1 through 3?

Assuming that EPs 1, 2 and 3 have the same culprit, may that culprit be a group or otherwise, it seems quite likely that something prevented this group or person from acting out their plan in this particular gameboard.

The massacre and subsequent capture that we saw in the dining room prevented the usual culprit from acting, as they were amongst the victims!

This explains the inconsistencies between this game and all those that came prior.

OH GOD I JUST WENT BACK TO CHECK SOMETHING IN THE VN AND JESUS CHRIST

ALL RIGHT! FRESH ROUND OF POINTS!

Who arranged for the delivery of Maria’s letter? Knowing what we know now, it (almost certainly) can’t be Kinzo. Yet it was someone who got their hands on the Head’s ring. That letter is almost universally disadvantageous to Krauss and Natsuhi the official bosses of the servants, and the ones most likely to have the means to have given that letter to Maria. So who did? Or is there someway we can tie this back around to an advantage for Krauss or Natushi?

When did Rudolf awaken to his ESP? All jokes aside he shows some shocking precognition with his “family talk”. He somehow knew that he was probably going to be killed. How did he know this?

I’d also like to revise my EP1 theory. I think that most of it is correct, that doesn’t matter for now. as I want to make a giant change to the theory.

I was severely lacking in evidence regarding my assertions about George, and honestly, probably just wanted the twist that the perfect angel wasn’t so perfect after all. My new assertion is as follows, however there is some required reading to do first. Think back to the scene where Krauss shows Natsuhi the gold bar. I assert that this is the moment when Natsuhi came up with her plan to kill her husband along with the other adults. The supreme betrayal of trust he showed, along with the almost immediate display of kindness from Jessica made her want to secure the gold not for him, but for her and her daughter. Her basing her entire goals around her and her daughter’s future backs up my theory about her suicide. I retract my claims about her necessarily being mentally unstable.

Upon killing Rosa, Natsuhi acquired the stake shooting device, its ammunition and a spare stake launcher from the body, as Rosa had been planning a killing of her own. In fact, it’s possible she was the one who arranged for the letter to be given to Maria. Showing her quick thinking Natsuhi incorporated the stake shooter into her plan, setting up a trap in the boiler room with the spare shooter.

It is possible she enlisted help from one of the servants in setting this up, as she may have been their technical boss after Kinzo’s death. As she was one of the first on the scene, she was able to santch up the shooter itself, she didn’t have to worry about Kumasawa seeing the shooter, as the room is rather dark, and it is very difficult to see things that are painted black or dark red in the dark.

In fact if we assume a trap X was used to commit Kanon’s murder, then it becomes natural to assume that the culprit was someone high up in the Ushiromiya family, as you would need to know about Kinzo’s life or death status in order to use him in the boiler as bait

The Eva Hideyoshi killing is so simple I don’t really think I have to explain it. There are many methods for opening door chains from the outside and setting them from the outside. You can look them up yourself, they are in such a number that I’m not even going to name a specific one!

The only place where the witch can still exist on the first gameboard is the last three twilights, the murders of Genji, Nanjo and Kumasawa. I honestly can’t get this one for now but my good friend the red might be able to lend us a helping hand in solving it. The first piece of red regarding this crime, the second and the third.

Does anyone have any ideas for this last push? Come on, let’s destroy this gameboard, once and for all!

[mimsy]

Yay, I finally have time to make a post! I took your advice –

[quote=“pictoshark, post:34, topic:31, full:true”]
I was watching the Ep 3 ??? and would advise you to go do the same. If we’re trying to figure out “Who aaaaaaaam I?” then it contains a goldmine of useful stuff. If anything it’s making me stand even firmer by my original theory. As you seem to still be online, gogogo! It will only take 15 minutes to read, maximum. I’ll be working up my real response to your post while you do that.[/quote]

– and wow I’m glad I did. How did I forget all this? Lambadelta says outright that Beatrice is ‘nothing more than a temporary witch’ and that she’ll go back to being Human without Lambadelta’s sponsorship. She also says that Beatrice was in some pretty miserable circumstances before Lambadelta decided to sponsor her, and that if Beatrice fails, Lambadelta will find the most miserable Fragment in all the possible Fragments and seal her there. Much like when Bernkastel offers to find the happiest Fragment she can for Ange but, you know … in reverse.

That does seem to align with your theory that Beatrice is the human Beatrice who died and then ascended to the metaworld, much like Battler did. In fact, from what we’ve heard, it sounds a lot like how Ange was chosen by Bernkastel to be her piece.

Lambadelta says why she chose Beatrice, too. It was in exchange for her ‘gameboard,’ which Lambdadelta wants to use to trap Bernkastel. But what exactly does that mean? In this episode, they talk a bit about Beatrice’s gameboard, and where it’s located in time – I believe it’s October 4-5 of 1986. That’s why Ange is such an advantageous piece, because she can look beyond that timeframe. And I would guess the gameboard is also Rokkenjima Island itself, which in October 4-5 is closed off from the rest of the world by the typhoon and damage to the phones lines. I’m struggling a bit with finding the right words to describe this, because it’s sort of a unique concept. The gameboard isn’t like a tabletop game you bring to a party, it’s not a physical thing, it’s … a place, a time, a series of events? But a series of events with some variation, which we see from episode to episode.

So in what sense, then, do those belong to Beatrice? I really don’t know, but maybe it’s something like a plan – a plan that took many years to set in motion, that required a particular set of circumstances. (Like: the island being cut off from the rest of world during a family conference. Or even: Ushiromiya Battler being at the family conference, which we were speculating about above.) And if it’s Beatrice’s plan, something she thought up when she was alone and miserable in Kuwadorian, that’s a more concrete way that we can claim she is the concept of the Rokkenjima killings. She died, but the killings still came about, so her will still exists in the world. We can say she still exists, as the Rokkenjima killings. Sort of? Like I said, this is tricky to talk about.

It might help to think about the mystery of the message in the bottle? That comes up in this episode, too – we find out that there’s multiple messages, and they’re written in the same handwriting in Maria’s journal that Maria attributes to Beatrice. The messages tell different stories, but they’re always the story of the Rokkenjima killings of October 4-5, 1986. Different plans, maybe, different ways events could unfold within the required circumstances. It’s always been a little mysterious who wrote those messages – they’re supposed to be from Maria, but Maria didn’t seem to have the time to chronicle everything or the opportunity to put it in a bottle – so maybe they were written in advance? Written by Beatrice? We know there’s a human Beatrice – most likely a Ushiromiya Beatrice – but she died when Rosa was a child, didn’t she? In other words, she died long before Maria was born. So why would she claim to be Maria or – heck – why would she write about any of the grandchildren at the family conference? And how would her handwriting get in Maria’s journal … Is it someone else pretending to be Beatrice, in order to enact her plan? That could be it, right?

I feel like we’re so close! But, speaking of being so close …

I assert that this is the moment when Natsuhi came up with her plan to kill her husband along with the other adults. The supreme betrayal of trust he showed, along with the almost immediate display of kindness from Jessica made her want to secure the gold not for him, but for her and her daughter. Her basing her entire goals around her and her daughter’s future backs up my theory about her suicide. I retract my claims about her necessarily being mentally unstable.

Upon killing Rosa, Natsuhi acquired the stake shooting device, its ammunition and a spare stake launcher from the body, as Rosa had been planning a killing of her own. In fact, it’s possible she was the one who arranged for the letter to be given to Maria. Showing her quick thinking Natsuhi incorporated the stake shooter into her plan, setting up a trap in the boiler room with the spare shooter.

It is possible she enlisted help from one of the servants in setting this up, as she may have been their technical boss after Kinzo’s death. As she was one of the first on the scene, she was able to santch up the shooter itself, she didn’t have to worry about Kumasawa seeing the shooter, as the room is rather dark, and it is very difficult to see things that are painted black or dark red in the dark.

In fact if we assume a trap X was used to commit Kanon’s murder, then it becomes natural to assume that the culprit was someone high up in the Ushiromiya family, as you would need to know about Kinzo’s life or death status in order to use him in the boiler as bait

The Eva Hideyoshi killing is so simple I don’t really think I have to explain it. There are many methods for opening door chains from the outside and setting them from the outside. You can look them up yourself, they are in such a number that I’m not even going to name a specific one!

The only place where the witch can still exist on the first gameboard is the last three twilights, the murders of Genji, Nanjo and Kumasawa. I honestly can’t get this one for now but my good friend the red might be able to lend us a helping hand in solving it. The first piece of red regarding this crime, the second and the third.

Does anyone have any ideas for this last push? Come on, let’s destroy this gameboard, once and for all!

Oh, I like this theory a lot. That conversation Natsuhi had with Kinzo, the one that we know now didn’t happen – I was thinking there still had to be a grain of truth in there, one that explained her change in attitude when she returned to Eva. In that conversation, Kinzo hints that he regrets Natushi isn’t his heir, that she isn’t a man and Krauss a woman. Perhaps she was having those thoughts herself, while looking at Kinzo’s body – and then she realized there was still a way that she and Jessica could inherit the Ushiromiya family title. (By being the only Ushiromiyas left.)

Those last three twilights are hard, admittedly. Natushi did advocate pretty hard to push the servants out of the study, so she could have had a trap of some kind waiting for them in the parlor. But with the state of their bodies, it’s hard to imagine what that trap could be, and why there wouldn’t be any visible evidence of it. Man, I’m going to have to think more about this.

[pictoshark]

Lambadelta says why she chose Beatrice, too. It was in exchange for her ‘gameboard,’ which Lambdadelta wants to use to trap Bernkastel. But what exactly does that mean?

I thought her gameboard just referred to the game she was having with Battler. Remember, Bernkastel came down to Beatrice’s fragment to watch and aid Battler, as she felt for his plight having been in a similar circumstance in the past, before she became a witch.

Perhaps Bernkastel has to abide by a certain set of rules to enter Beatrice’s territory? Maybe one of them is not leaving until the game concludes, a condition she saw no issue with at the time, as she came to avoid boredom and see Battler to victory.

This next blue may seem obvious, but it’s important to get down on the record.

However, Battler was bait, the game was begun on orders from Lambdadelta and the true purpose of the game is to force an endless tie to keep Bernkastel within arm’s reach of Lambdadelta, so she can play with her for as long as possible.

Oh yeah, another important thing. It is possible that Ange’s future is not the world of Post EP3. It could be another world, Eva could have been telling the truth.

On a similar note, it is possible that the description of the scene that the police arrive upon (that we read in the end scroll of EP1) is not the aftermath of EP1.

They could both be unseen routes, they may not correspond to any of the EPs.

I should be able to reread the last three twilights of EP 1 sometime tomorrow, I’ll post back here when I do (so in about 24 ish hours).

[TanteiRiley]

The first piece of red regarding this crime, the second and the third.

Since no one else that was living could possibly be in the room that wasn’t the killer, only Maria could be the killer, the Red truth completely denies that Maria is the killer. I could only come up with one theory that could work around this (partially relates to my previous theory, about Beatrice being a split personality). Maria has Dissociative identity disorder, which was caused by emotional and physical abuse from Rosa!!!

This is backed up by the signs she shows when she is talking about Beatrice and insulting everyone, Battler and the rest of the cousins also made comments that support this. Also her mother, Rosa shows heavy signs of bipolar disorder throughout all the episodes thus far, Rosa having a mental disorder increases Maria’s chances of having one too. One of Maria’s split personalities (most likely MARIA, who tortured Rosa) was somehow convinced to commit homicide on the three adults in the room. They were all probably caught off guard and at least two of them died before defending themselves. After this the murderous MARIA reverted back to the old Maria, and sang while facing the wall, or she might not have reverted back at all and was pretending to be Maria

Although this theory involves Maria being a killer, she was only an assistant to the murders, her mother was planning, she doesn’t necessarily have to be [Beatrice] herself.

Rosa would have known about Maria’s mental illness and could have manipulated her so that she’d help with her planned murder.

It’s always been a little mysterious who wrote those messages – they’re supposed to be from Maria, but Maria didn’t seem to have the time to chronicle everything or the opportunity to put it in a bottle – so maybe they were written in advance? Written by Beatrice? We know there’s a human Beatrice – most likely a Ushiromiya Beatrice – but she died when Rosa was a child, didn’t she? In other words, she died long before Maria was born. So why would she claim to be Maria or – heck – why would she write about any of the grandchildren at the family conference? And how would her handwriting get in Maria’s journal … Is it someone else pretending to be Beatrice, in order to enact her plan? That could be it, right?

The only person I could think of that would be able to do this would be Rosa herself, if so that would mean she would be the culprit or at least one of multiple culprits.

Upon killing Rosa, Natsuhi acquired the stake shooting device, its ammunition and a spare stake launcher from the body, as Rosa had been planning a killing of her own. In fact, it’s possible she was the one who arranged for the letter to be given to Maria. Showing her quick thinking Natsuhi incorporated the stake shooter into her plan, setting up a trap in the boiler room with the spare shooter.

I’ll add your theory to mine, Natsuhi killed Rosa before she could enact her plan, Natsuhi than found the letters Rosa had written pretending to be Maria. Natsuhi used Rosa’s plan to murder the entire Ushiromiya family and than killed herself in guilt. THIS IS THE TRUTH BEHIND THE FIRST EPISODE!!!

The murderous MARIA may not have known about her mother’s death or maybe she still continued the plan knowing this fact but not caring.

[pictoshark]

One of Maria’s split personalities (most likely MARIA, who tortured Rosa) was somehow convinced to commit homicide on the three adults in the room.

You need more of a precedent to make such an outlandish yet specific claim. You would find a hole in the red just to solve a single set of twilights? At least find a way for your Maria DID thing to explain Natsuhi’s death, and the following appearance of Beatrice. Quite frankly, I think simply solving who this Beatrice was will already give us everything we need. I appreciate the attempt to push things forward, but your assertion about Natsuhi’s suicide doesn’t really check out.

It is stated that she was “killed by another person”. Unless you can account outside intent into your theory, it simply doesn’t hold water.

On a more constructive note, I finally finished my re read of Ep 1. That was… An eye opening experience…

Ow. That really hurt my theory.

So. There was no way for Jessica to have written the Letter which then lead to Natsuhi’s suicide by provocation. Therefore if I still want to stand by my provoked suicide theory I need to explain how the letter caused Natsuhi to want to kill herself. Also, I see almost no opening for the parlor killing to occur.

Let me throw a crazy assertion into the mix, this kinda concerns mysteries in later episodes too.

When Kanon is stated to be dead in the red truth, by some method, he can still be alive.

The main thing that led me to this (incomplete) theory is how in Episode 2, 3 and 4, Battler never sees his body.

This explains his sudden (re)appearance in Ep 2, gives us a backup plan for the Nanjo killing in Ep 3, and gives us a rather convenient culprit for Ep 4, along with someone who could have been dressing up as Beatrice in the scene where she asks Battler if he remembers his sin.

Still, I think outlining our objectives would be a nice start, which is why, I will be writing the mysteries of an Episode in lime colored text.

So let’s set an objective list for Ep 1, the mysteries presented by the story are as follows:

Who was deceived about Kinzo’s life/death status, and who is lying to us?

Who gave Maria the letter?

Who wrote the letter?

How did they imprint the Head’s seal onto the wax?

How did they conduct the first twilight? Why those victims?

How did Rudolf predict his own death?

How did the culprit know which Magic Circles to use for each crime scene? (They seemed to match Maria’s descriptions, and Kinzo’s notes in his study)

How was the closed room of the second twilight constructed?

How was Kanon killed?

How was the letter placed on the table in Kinzo’s study?

How was the killing in the parlor carried out?

Why did Natsuhi seemingly kill herself?

Who was the Beatrice Battler and Maria saw at the end?

Please keep in mind the red truths shown in the Episode 4 Tea Party, they can be a great help, though they do put some restrictions on our answers.

[pictoshark]

Alright, while I wait for a certain someone (@Seraphitic) to join the most magnificent picnic we’re hosting here, I want to talk to all of you about the basics of how to prove things. Mathematically speaking. And since logic IS maths, I think it’s relevant.

All of maths is predicated on certain truths. These truths prove other things to be true, but the initial statements aren’t inherently true, it’s possible they could be proven wrong, which would bring the entire system crashing down.

These “starting truths” that you assume to be true to start off with are called axioms. The truths that are built off of these axioms are called theorems. As theorems have been proven to be true, you can use theorems to prove more theorems.

Naturally, to avoid your axioms being proven false later (as that would cause most of your theorems to collapse), it’s a good idea to keep them as low in number as possible, and make them be things that seem true enough.

The axioms presented in Euclid’ “Elements” all seem simple enough,

1. If we have two points, we can draw a line between them

2. If we have a line, we can extend it either way as much as we want
3. We can draw circles, of whatever size and position we want
4. All right angles are equal to each other
5. If a line crosses two other lines, check the angles that were formed on either side, between the two lines. If they add up to less than 180 degrees, then those lines are gonna intercept eventually on that side if we extend them enough.

I know the last one is a bit wordy, (Euclid wanted to prove it using the others so his axioms would look better) but all in all, a pretty good list of basic truths, right? He used it to prove that maths works out, by starting with these.

Since math is pretty cool, and it works and stuff, it might be an idea to copy it’s structure.

Also figuring out our goal in the whole of Beato’s stupid game might be an idea.

I propose the following axioms for solving Umineko:

1. If something is said in the red, then it is true.

2. If a scene is from gameboard Battler’s POV then it is as his mind perceived it.

3. If a clock is shown advancing, and if the following scene is from Batter’s POV, then the scene begins at the time the clock was shown to have advanced to

4. Scenes shown from Battler’s POV follow each other in the same chronological order as the order that they are presented to the viewer in.

Our aim is to prove that Magic is not real on the gameboard.

We don’t have to, but figuring things out about the backstory, and how things happened, along with how the metaworld works could be fun to try.

Is that an accurate summary of the game we have been presented with?

EDIT: added a third and fourth axiom, just for completeness. These are VERY basic assumptions, but technically speaking we have nothing that backs them up. I also added bonus goals.

[pictoshark]

Of course, with an axiomic system, you want to make it so that none of your axioms are contradicted.

Yet we have a problem riiiiiight out of the gate.

2. If a scene is from gameboard Battler’s POV then it is as his mind perceived it.

The ending of EP 2 presents a slight problem.

Battler sees dozens of goat men (and people with goat masks on) parading around the entrance hall who then eventually start eating Kinzo and him

Quuuuuite magical. My first thoughts upon seeing that scene was to jokingly think, “I’ve had worse trips”.

But that’s exactly the solution! Battler is seen drinking very heavily before Genji comes in to see him. He doesn’t even know the identities of the drinks he’s shoving down his throat.

Battler is in a drunken coma on the floor of the dining hall at the end of Ep 2. Everything he sees may be as his mind is perceiving things, but that doesn’t mean they really happened!

[Aspirety]

I accept your blue as valid.