No offense, but I instinctively denied most of the explanations provided within the story because I doubted you’d be generous enough to make any of those explanations actually valid. Still, thanks for clarifying.
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Finally got a chance to read through this gameboard! I’m just as stuck on the letter trick as anyone, so I thought I’d bring up a different angle…
As I’m sure you guys have already figured, the letter trick hint points pretty strongly to either a Kumasawa or Shannon culprit theory. The narrative in it suggests that the culprit was in subtle control of seemingly minor occurrences leading up to the dinner. One of note would be the argument between George and Battler. It’s certainly a strange interaction, and it feels like someone is pulling the strings here. Why did George decide to go through Battler’s stuff? Battler seems adamant (at first anyway) that he’s never seen that letter before. I would guess this is probably true. He probably hasn’t seen that particular letter before, but he’s probably received similar ones, if his confession to George is to be believed.
Therefore I’d say it’s a reasonable conclusion that someone both planted that letter and told George about Shannon and Battler’s relationship, suggesting that he might have a letter with him. Kumasawa, as the island’s gossip, would definitely control information in such a way to arrange this. Shannon is the more “obvious” culprit - she could have written the letter herself and planted it in Battler’s bags. However, it would be strange for her to just tell George about the situation. It would be harder for him to maintain his delusion if he were told straight up by Shannon. That’s why I’m leaning a bit more towards Kumasawa at the moment.
Of course, not sure how that helps with the roadblock that is the letter trick. Just didn’t want to forget about the other pieces of the puzzle that Battler stumbles onto in the “Aftermath” 
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Well, keep thinking about that, but as long as the recent string theory isn’t argued back against we have a free pass to argue on the murders for Shannon. (and it’s easy enough h to think up variations for Genji)
Jessica’s dead body was made to fire the gun, using electricity. There were wires going in through the window. Shannon activated it, either timed or when people were distracted looking at the door. (could have set up some connection to a breaker there during renovations.)
The current made the hand muscles contract and pull the trigger. Recoil knocked the gun out of her hand and made the wires come loose, making them fall out of the window.
…I technically just wanted to ask if something like that would count as ‘directly’ and if dead bodies count as human beings, but y know, figured I should be courteous enough to at least make the theory.
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The person firing the gun was alive when the gunshot went off. The gun was fired of the person’s own free will.
In addition, I’m curious how Shannon gets rid of the wires after the fact. It sounds pretty based on luck whether or not it would work how described here…
(Also if the wires go from the window on the left side of the room, how is the window closed? If they go from the window to the right, why were the wires not seen by Krauss when he looked just before the gunshot, and why did he see no wires on the ground when looking out of the window after the fact? And what does Shannon even do to activate electricity without anyone noticing?)
Why do you deny me with the red but still ask these questions?
Well just to say how I’d pictured it - wires would have gone in from window on the right.
They would’ve been set up with some weight on them that’d pull them out the instance they’re no longer held in place by the gun or something idk.
There’s a single light source so missing thin stuff is possible, although could have also just said they were behind Jessica’s legs. (sort of depends if his field of vision included anything right of the legs.)
Krauss only noticed the shards cause it was dark outside so nothing else stood out.
And Shannon… just pressed a hidden button or something. 
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You of all people should know that a little red never stopped anyone. (Especially not determined ones.) Never hurts to be thorough when smelling things that could have variations pop up.
(That and I was in the midst of something boring so I figured I might as well.)
Either way, given the “or something idk” should instinctively tell you you’re not there (in addition to the red itself).
So the gun was really fired, and by a living person, and it was part of the culprit’s plan. That doesn’t, however, mean that the culprit fired it. The gun wasn’t seen by Krauss in the VIP room, so it could have easily been planted there after.
The culprit, Shannon, tricked one of those not present at the scene into firing that gun. Maybe they convinced George to fire somewhere outside in order to scare Battler. Natsuhi had already been shot earlier. The gun would later be returned to the VIP room via the broken window.
While I like the idea, we have to wonder why that person who was somehow tricked into firing a gun wouldn’t bring that up to the police and tell them that the gunshot came from them. According to DWaM, withholding any useful information related to the events would make that person an accomplice, and it’s already confirmed that there are no accomplices.
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I don’t really want to debate the finer points of the accomplice rule too much, but would it really count if they’re lying to protect themselves? They might believe that the person who told them to do it is also completely innocent, and not want to implicate them.
I’m pretty sure any kind of lying is not allowed (unless you’re the culprit), but let’s check with @DWaM just to be sure.
Yeah I think you’re right. Lying for the sake of the culprit in any way shape or form would probably count as being an accomplice. That’s a shame 
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Genji leaving to get the bolt cutters seems highly suspicious. While Shannon remained in front of the VIP room all the time, Genji did leave the group for some time. It is possible Genji set the chain knowing he would eventually have to go get the bolt cutters, giving him an opportunity to do something inside Jessica’s room.
I’m starting to think we should put some more stake on the “fantasy” section…
I’ll rescind my earlier blue involving an accomplice:
Jessica fired the gun, as instructed by the culprit. As in the intermission, she was told that if she did not fire the gun, her mother would be killed with it. Little did she know, Natsuhi had been shot earlier. She likely fumbled trying to reach the gun, and hung herself. Jessica was not quite dead when Krauss and the group saw her through the gap in the door, and she used the last of her strength to fire the gun.
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Good idea. The only issue seems to be that when they opened the door, Jessica was apparently lying on the floor, and at that point the shot hadn’t happened (unless Jessica legit made the shot using her feet). I’m also curious about whether Krauss, Shannon and Genji would really not have noticed the gunshot coming from inside the VIP room given that they were standing right next to it.
Though if we do assume Jessica was hung, we also have to assume the culprit returned to the room and removed pieces of the rope since Krauss states that “the rope was too short” and that “while there was a ceiling fan above her, there were no traces of a rope long enough for her to have hung herself with it.”
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If she was indeed hanged, it’s probably not a stretch to remove the rope from the room without having to return. It is rope, after all. Say the rope was tied in some manner where it goes from the ceiling fan to the leg of the chair to the table to the outside of the window. From the outside, the culprit tugs on the rope, simultaneously hanging Jessica and pulling the chair back towards the desk. Then, by remote means, they sever the rope, perhaps on the shattered window glass, perhaps with a well aimed gunshot.
I don’t think that’s the right mechanism X for severing the rope if she really was hanged, but it’s a path.
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Alrighty, let’s see what you’ve been up to.
X…
…meet Y:
(Which is to say, it is as he has said and as you yourself have concluded - in this case, the person is an accomplice.)
Y…
…meet Z:
(Also:
the gunshot would’ve been fired from a pretty high-caliber revolver, which would’ve been pretty loud and, in turn, make it harder to determine where exactly it came from. Krauss was the one to assume Natsuhi was in danger, and most of the other people flocked to the entrance of the VIP room due to the commotion.)
Z…
…Meet your old friends, X and Y:
For this to have been possible, it would’ve had to have been done before any of the witnesses showed up to begin with, since Jessica was already on the ground when they arrived. And if that’s the case - is there any point? She still can’t be the one to fire it, as you’ve suggested, given that the person had to have been alive when the gunshot went off. And you’re right back where you started - since by the theories fired this far, Jessica’s already dead and not able to fire the gun, neither Shannon nor Genji can do it.
Culprit is Genji. Jessica was still alive when Genji, Shannon, and Krauss got there. There was some of that sturdy string going through the noose around her neck, then round the ceiling fan, and to the window on the right, connected to something heavy that was placed in a precarious balance on the open frame with the broken glass. The noose was so tight she was getting choked and unable to talk, and any sudden movement on her part or even just a gust of wind might have sent the weight crashing down. Genji left a gun with one bullet nearby, planning to get an alibi in the best case. (even if he hadn’t, he could still have caused the crash from outside while getting the cutters, so no real harm done)
He then immediately fetched Shannon and subsequently Krauss.
Jessica didn’t dare reaching for the gun until she heard people at the door. Then she decided to shoot, both to get attention and trying to hit the string. However she missed or the culprit just put a blank in it. After hearing that, Genji went to “get the cutter”, but actually went outside and pulled out that string after making sure Jessica was dead for good. The crash was from the heavy object falling down during this removal.
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You intend to get through X, Y, Z by simply combining them?
Well, fair enough, I suppose. But no good. At the time Krauss looked through the gap in the door, the window on the right was closed, unbroken, and locked. This should, I think, get rid of any fancy contraptions when it comes to this.
Hm, but maybe I should think ahead a bit and get rid of an alternative.
You could claim that, if the window on the left was one of those that you pull open like a double door (er, I forget what they’re called - but it’s the way most windows are), and that one of the wings to that window (the part of the window you could claim Krauss had seen) was closed while the other was open – I could just say that the windows are the type that you pull up to open or something; the actual design doesn’t matter much to be honest with you but could be useful for denying a theory like that.
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Jessica was on the ground, but she wasn’t dead. The rope was too long to hang Jessica, so when she fell over she was still alive, but was gagged. She shot the gun from her face down position, as instructed by the culprit, and the bullet smashed the right window open. Once Genji was alone, he pulled on the rope, which was hanging out of left window, and killed Jessica. He then, climbed in, cut the rope down to the state it was found in, and left again.