Omg really???
Ok so for humans, weāre in the worst position omg
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On the one hand, humans immediately lose if we hit a human, which is bad.
On the other hand, there are two witches among five players. Even if we lynched randomly, weād have an almost 50-50 chance of hitting a witch.
The way I see it, we have two factions. There are the people who voted for Wonderlander way back during day 2, and people who did not vote at all that day. We have three witch distribution possibilities among those factions. Either both witches voted for Wonderlander, one of them did so, or both of the witches abstained from voting that day.
Among the Wondervoters, there are only two people, SleepingPliskin and Doldod. It seems people have suspected both of them roughly equally.
Among the passives, there are midsummer, UsagiTempura and Muski. Out of these three, I have been under more suspicion than the other two.
I believe what we should ask ourselves is āwhich group is more likely to have a witch in itā. This should determine which faction we should target.
It probably surprises nobody that I subscribe to the idea of there being at least one, if not two, witches among the Wondervoters. I find it highly unlikely that both Usagi and Muski are witches. When I think back to day 2, being passive and not voting at all in that pivotal decision seems like a poor move on the witch sideās part. If they were looking way, way, way ahead, I guess it isnāt impossible, but I find it unlikely that they wouldāve both made such a strange move way back on day 2 in some master plan to end up in this particular situation. And, arguably, if a witch had voted for akafa, they wouldāve been in an even more secure position right now. I believe the reason the witch side has eliminated all akafavoters is exactly because they have been the most trusted individuals in the game. So even if they did have a far-reaching plan, that plan wouldāve been suboptimal at best.
For a scenario in which at least one witch is among the Wondervoters, the recent developments have made sense. Nightkills have hit the people in direct opposition to them, the akafavoters, instead of thinning their ranks which would make it easier for a lynch to hit a witch among them. They have been quick to join in on vote trains against each other, which have just so happened to always hit humans. Rabla was lynched, which means that we now still have two Wondervoters left - if we had skipped Rabla, there would be only one. Though I guess that there were legitimate reasons to find Rabla suspicious, so I canāt just pin it down as a witch side plot with any certainty. But I sure wouldāve preferred to thin down the ranks of the Wondervoters as quickly as possible, considering how much suspicion was thrown their way.
So, for now, for me it seems today is about choosing between Pliskin and Doldod. Iāll wait for people to write some stuff of their own before reflecting on this more.
Gotta be careful with voting now,. If someone votes for a human then the witches can just come out of the woodwork and finish the game right at that instant with majority of votes, so letās take it slowly. Biggest question for me is how is @UsagiTenpura still alive at this point. Could be a witch, or maybe @midsummer is a witch who nightkilled @King_Titanite_XV because Usagi was about to cast suspicion on him, and nightkilling would only prove that this suspicion was correct.
Great the game starts late and while Iām away and now 3 humans are dead compared to yesterdayā¦
In any case I think before killing each other itād be nice to wait for everyone to at least say something (guess Doldod didnāt).
Sorry Iād say stuff but Iām too tired (eyes shutting on their own). Iāll bbl after a nap.
Well that seems to have interested people far more than I thought, Iām honestly surprised. Thanks.
Hmmm this would be a thing to create eheheheā¦ I guess itād be informative at the very least to inform people about these major traits.
I guess an additional thing I could add there is that the majority of traits goes on a scale, rather than a X vs Y thing. At best one could be described as being āmore X than the averageā or āmore Y than the averageā which isnāt really helping things to make a simple MBTI like test to begin with. Iāll think about how to do this when I have time and (sadly) a better health.
Well Iām too tired to write this as well as Iād want, but Iāll begin for now with trying to explain why itās not my survival thatās weird but rather, tho perhaps to a lesser degree than what you seem to think about me, your own @Muski (wether youāre a human or a witch)
King
So basically unlike what midsummer seems to claim up there, thereās been two groups of people since day2ās end when akafa died, yes, but these groups are the āpeople who voted akafaā and the āpeople who didnāt vote akafaā.
When you look at whatās been going on ever since, nightkills have always been people who voted akafa. I was thinking of this after Vyseās death, but wanted to learn a bit more. However Antraās weird death (if you check it says he was nightkilled because he wanted to quit the game) has made me not 100% certain. By now however thereās nothing that can be any clearer. Out of the 6 people who voted akafa, only one is left alive. Muski. Tho one was modkilled (sighā¦) itās pretty clear this was the idea. This also eliminate the worst case scenarios of having both witches voting for akafa.
Meanwhile during the day the 7 people from the other group has been essentially killing each other, including me. Right now this group is down to 4 people : Me, Midsummer, Doldod and Pliskin. Common sense suggest that the witches are two people of this group, and so the odds of a witch being caught right now is 1/2. Kill any of us, and those odds goes up to 2/3. No sane witch would ever do something like that. I thought this should be obvious by now.
However from my pov the weird thing is actually why King died, in lieu of you. If youāre a human, you should be pondering about this a lot. For one thing you were already set on a path to attack midsummer and itās not entirely unlikely that youād be suspicious of me as well considering I called you suspicious myself yesterday. For another thing King attacked Pliskin and may have very well done so again. Or not. Weāll never know.
From our the pov of everyone else who doesnāt know wether youāre human or a witch, I think itās worth thinking that youāre in a kinda very favorable position now that youāre the only person who voted for akafa left alive. Itās pretty much nearly impossible that all humans agree on voting for you right now (talking to theoretical witch you). At the very least, not this day.
Now going to move on to possibilities. Iāll say it right away, conventional strategy suggests your best bet, at least for today, is to snipe me or midsummer. From my pov, that means midsummer.
This is addressed to the two other humans out there.
Possibilities
From my pov there are six basic possibilities.
Doldod/Pliskin
Doldod/Midsummer
Doldod/Muski
Pliskin/Midsummer
Pliskin/Muski
Midsummer/Muski
Replace your own name by mine to get the same thing.
So now unless this was an elaborate act to kill each other in order to make the other sound less suspicious that somehow worked even more in their favour due to me voting for EM instead of either of themā¦
The scenario of Doldod/Pliskin is unlikely. Leaving these five scenarios.
Doldod/Midsummer
Doldod/Muski
Pliskin/Midsummer
Pliskin/Muski
Midsummer/Muski
Among these five scenarios, due to having voted for akafa, it relatively makes his own humanity sound higher/better than any of us to everyone else, leaving aside your own self, obviously.
It leaves these two scenarios as being more likely.
Doldod/Midsummer
Pliskin/Midsummer
Both includes, from my pov of course, midsummer.
From his pov, it should point to the same thing except me instead.
From the pov of theoretical human Pliskin and theoretical human Doldod, this doesnāt apply very much, outside of the Muski part.
The likely scenarios left areā¦
PliskinOrDoldod(whichever you arenāt)/Me
PliskinOrDoldod(whichever you arenāt)/Midsummer
Me/Midsummer
Itās a bit more muddy, so you may feel differently if youāre unsure about me or midsummer, but very certain the other is a witch.
From theoretical human Muskiās pov, things are more blury, but still. Should also view Doldod/Pliskin as unlikely, but that means from your pov that between midsummer and me, thereās at least one witch.
This means that normally I should vote for midsummer. Itās fairly likely that one of us will die tonight, and from my pov thereās incredibly good odds that midsummer is a witch.
counterpoints
While muski doesnāt remember this, itās also a thing that last game we have constantly ā¦ basically ignored doldod/sapphire due to not wanting to take the risk mostly and going to the safer āworldā of the others. Ultimately, this bite us in the ass and we lost. Especially at the 11th hour, we were defeated due to this.
So if thereās anything left to ponder by this point, itās a scenario along those lines.
For any of us who isnāt Muski and is human (meaning Iām possible talking to a single person if muski is actually human). He is in a perfectly favorable situation right now. Exactly like sapphire and doldod on day4, it wouldāve required not only all humans working together, but even the unprobably help of an already caught witch to kill them. Yet, this is what we shouldāve tried.
However thereās nothing as condemning about Muski as there was last game with the lovers, so itās a scenario to consider very carefully. Even if Muski is a witch he has a partner out there.
So unless you think Muski is the most probable witch, and unsure about who their partener is, itās best not to consider it, at least this turn. Itās a very risky thing, however it should be remembered that he was not nightkilled as I pointed above and *now finds himself in a perfectly favorable situation even if we snipe a witch tonight.
The other scenario is perhaps flying even lower in the radar, however it should be worth mention that pliskin himself mentionned that heād do things like that yesterday before voting King.
It involves actually something very similar to the idea that theoretical human Muski wouldāve voted for akafa to find himself in this scenario. Except the idea there is that Doldod and Pliskin being two of the three people who voted for wonderlander left alive wouldāve chosen to vote for each other since they had at the base the highest chance of falling under fire. One would die, and the other would appear to be a human in comparison for killing the other being a witch.
Sadly I sorta stupidly didnāt consider how much time was left when I voted for EM yesterday and both moved very quickly to kill him. Itās not like it makes no sense either if either or even both are humans : EM couldāve popped anytime and kill one of them simply to save his own life and be legitimized in doing so. Everyone just wanted to survive, wether they were humans or witches. But in the case where both are witches, they had not only an opportunity to kill a human, but also to be freed of being suspected together due to having nearly killed each other.
Both of these scenarios are āconventionallyā unlikely, but when I think about King dying, it seems like either could be possible. Doing things like voting on gut feeling isnāt really my thing. From my pov I read doldod and pliskinās behaviour as more likely human than witch, which in comparison makes muski and midsummer sound more likely to be witch in behaviour alone. But I also know them while I never played with muski or midsummer. Meanwhile, itās also true both have the highest kill record of humans this game, especially pliskin, and also voted for wonderlander on day2.
As I mentionned earlier, conventional strategy from my pov suggest midsummer and one of the two is a witch, and while I said I would chose to save pliskin over doldod yesterday, Iām not sure how Iād react to this if I had to make the choice again since tomorrow is another day, and many things can happen since then (including my own death, in day or night). I also have to keep in mind Kingās death in all of this.
I may as well say that however while it may change, Iām tempted to think my oddly improbably scenario mentionned earlier of Muski/Midsummer is starting to sound somewhat credible by now. But who knows, it may get proven wrong pretty soon for all I know. Still makes midsummer a better bet for now.
And so in conclusion, unless anyone wants to add what they think about my counterpoints, which I want to emphasis are something to go for only if we really want to make a huge gamble, the better option from me is to vote midsummer, and overall I think it should be played between the two of us from an external pov.
Now that I wrote all of this, Iām probably going to become the person under most suspicion, because thatās how it goes. Iām not going to bother defending myself or writing more about this beyond that. This is my final contribution to this game, hope it helps anyone to think things, even tho it points toward me heh. I just can say that Iām pretty certain midsummer is a witch.
TLDR : My best bet is on midsummer, I hope you agree because itād be nice to at least kill one more witch.
ā¦ Iād really like to know why details so often doesnāt work on this thread.
Sighā¦
This was meant to be cleaner looking as a result
Uh wtf. The first part of the post somehow ends up belonging to another thread entirely. The MBTI one.
ā¦ Iām pretty confused how that got there ahahaā¦
Well thatās pretty in-depth. Hopefully we can get everyoneās opinion on that Day.
Hmm, Iām not sure whether we should bet on Usagi being a witch and vote for her. Itās probably too risky, but Iād feel so dumb if we lost to a witch like that, heh. I guess that leaves Pliskin and midsummer (I agree that Muski can be safe for today). Iām leaning toward midsummer especially after Usagiās analysis. He was also caught multiple times on weird behavior, decisions not to vote etc. Itās not like Pliskinās track history is much cleaner, but his behavior is less suspicious to me at this point, even though I chose him by RNG the last day.
Oh, Muski voted for akafa? I somehow forgot about that, I thought he didnāt vote for either. And before you claim my supposed forgetfulness is some kind of witch side plot, please remember that it is trivially easy to show that I was wrong.
Usagiā¦ Your analysis seems a little stacked against me. You claim that the Doldod/Pliskin scenario is unlikely because trying to attack each other to make the other seem less suspicious is too elaborate to be probable. If the witch side players attacking each other is so unbelievable to youā¦ how exactly are the last two scenarios any more likely to you than the others? Iād like to remind you that Pliskin hasnāt spent a day without calling me out as a serious witch suspect, starting as early as day 2. Doldod hasnāt been quite as active on that front as Pliskin, but it isnāt like he thinks Iām his best buddy, either. Likewise, I have been breathing fire solely on the four Wondervoters since day 3. While Iāve sadly been off in my suspicion the last two days, I have always advocated the strategy of hitting those four until a witch is found. And I have case a fair amount of suspicion on Pliskin throughout the game, more so during days 3 and 4, less so afterwards. Doldod has been lower on my list than Pliskin.
Taking that into account, I could see you believing me and Doldod are the witch team, but you conveniently leave the mutual aggression factor completely off your reasoning when it comes to me, whereas you made a point of pointing it out elsewhere. This makes it feel like you started writing that assuming Iām already a witch, which ups my suspicion on you somewhat.
I also believe you dismissed the Pliskin/Doldod angle a bit too easily, as the momentum had shifted against them since day 3, itād be suicidal for them to not point guns at each other when most everyone else is pointing theirs at them. You mentioned this in your counterpoints, but the way your posts is structured, you first bring up the conclusion that assumes Doldod and Pliskin canāt both be witches as the result of your analysis, and then bring up this important factor as a small, forgettable footnote in the counterpoint section. This also makes it look like you tried to forcibly end up in a conclusion that allows only me to be the culprit, but realized thereās a flaw and made a small mention of it elsewhere so that you can show that you didnāt ignore it, but the main point of your post that is conveyed to the readers still remains the initial conclusion that conveniently ignored it.
Attacking me really makes sense makes sense, since every other player sans me has expressed suspicion on me. Muski, Doldod and Pliskin all think Iām a good candidate for a lynch. Why not join the train while you still can? Nothing would make you look better.
Regarding Doldodās postā¦ could you please elaborate on āthe multiple times Iāve been caught on weird behaviourā. I can think only of my refusal to vote on day 2, which I explained as an overreaction to the claim that I was manipulating people on day 1, which I also acknowledge was a stupid thing to do. During these past few days, I have taken decisive action instead of waiting for people to start trains and then join in the one that is the most convenient. Wouldnāt you think those people who hang back until thereās a train that advances their agenda so that they can join in on it are more suspicious?
Oh, and I should mention that I will be away for pretty much the entire day today. I might be able to make some short posts occasionally, but Iām not going to count on that.
uhhhhhhh. After reading both of your posts @UsagiTenpura and @midsummer, I donāt know what to think exactly. While I think that @Doldod is probably a witch in this scenario, I do have to say that I am also suspicious of similar stuff. Usagi seems to believe of Midsummer/Doldod a bit. which I guess supports my previous theory of an active member controlling the narrative. However, I feel like Usagi and Muski are in a position that seems a bit too convenient. My feeling is this: my gut tells me that one of the witches is @muski as the second contributing member out of the five, with @Doldod being the first I think (for reasons). Though I do believe that both @midsummer and @UsagiTenpura are both smart and articulate enough to write long posts that can potentially their win as witches. But Usagi did say these things:
And other quotes similar of the vein of āIām too tired with being a bit burned outā, which Iām willing to believe. So her last post makes sense if she thinks sheās both going to get night killed and wants to finish this game with a conclusion thoughts. So honestly, in terms of clear intent, I think Usagi is transparent enough, because I donāt think Usagi is the type of person to lie about her tiredness and problems, just to win a mafia game. Midsummer gets busy but he can still relatively play, which makes me suspicious of him as a potential āactiveā witch. Of course I would have to think who between @Doldod and @Muski is, though Iām leaning with @Doldod at this time
So now the question is, do we get the person that is most likely a witch (who I think is @doldod), or hit @midsummer. Of course Iām still suspicious so please, question me all you want. This is the climax after all
@midsummer As far as Iām concerned the only thing left to discuss are these āother scenariosā, obviously for others there may be different things left to consider. In any case, otherwise Iād have already voted for you.
Stillā¦
Thatās pretty much it in the end. It may not be the most reasonable move in a way, but whichever other scenario I think about, I can see counter scenarios to it.
The most fearsome scenario to me is something like one between pliskin/doldod + muski being the witches, but I donāt really get how to thin that down at this point.
Itās really impossible to rule out any scenario in vanilla mafia.
Muski going pretty silent following my long ass post is making my suspicion of him rise again, if anythingā¦ but if heās a human I also understand why he would want to be careful at this stage of the game. Iād like to hear his thoughts if anything.
But, leaving that aside, Iāll be working tomorrow and Iām not sure how much time Iāll be able to dedicate to the game. A choice in a form of another (from my own self) will have to be done by that point.
I think Iāve put down pretty much everything left mention in my earlier post that I could actually voice.
I canāt exactly rule out that a witch reside between pliskin and doldod, I even pointed it out as likely, but I find myself unable to chose between the two at this point outside of weird guesses that I tend to fail at more than anything.
If it really comes down to this Iāll have to use rng I think, but it may be that what people say in a way or another will make something come to light there. Even if somehow both are witches, itās not like Iām certain of this either so Iād still have to make a guess based on pretty much nothing of like āmaybe both are witches but itās more likely one is a witch than both so which do I go forā.
I main gain more motivation later in the day to tackle these ideas more solidly.
And if everything ends with my own death, well, so be it. I canāt say Iād be terribly surprised by now.
Thatās fair. Though to be honest, I feel like I want to go with @midsummer for the lynch, as I was suspicious of him since day 2. That and for the sake of my headcanon, I always viewed Midsummer as my rival in this game, so itās fitting that we clash till the end
Damn this sure has gone silent.
right?
Ok Iāll just pull first shot
Vote:Midsummer
Iāll follow with a better plan.
Vote : Karifean
Letās blow up the gameboard of boredom.
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