Rokkenjima Mafia - Game VI [Game Over - Witch Side Victory]

Gameboards
#141

Well doesn’t seem like much have happened here since I last visited. I’ll be busy today and tomorrow so I’ll try to quickly summarize my thoughts before that:

Human?:
Right now there are four people I’m leaning towards them being humans due to how they have responded and behaved so far.

UsagiTenpura: Did a great summary earlier and seems to behave similarly to the last game.

lobotomyprince: Stated to have played before and seem to be using that experience to show people the best way to catch a witch.

thesorceress: Suggested everyone to share thoughts and suspicions so that we won’t be letting witches control the game. Also suggested to start killing inactive players first to catch any witches there.

SleepingPliskin: Suggestsed that we should question each other in order for their thoughts about who the witches are, who they trust, etc. Volunteered to be the first one questioned and gave his thoughts about who he would kill if he were a witch (the ones who haven’t voted yet) as well as other suggestions.

Witches?:

Then there are three persons I’m suspecting of being witches, mostly because of them joining the Blackrune vote-train.

King: Was the second one to vote for Blackrune after Antra. Didn’t post for a while (stated it was because of him being unable to access a computer for that time).

Akafa123: The third one to vote for Blackrune. Seemingly to press a response

AMF: The fourth person to vote for Blackrune. This time in order to achieve an elimination. Feels like a strange strategy for a witch but worth to keep an eye on.

Unknown:

Haven’t gathered an thorough opinion of the rest yet.

So atm without any further information I’m leaning towards AMF being a witch but that’s just due to how they reacted so I don’t want to put down a vote just yet.

Editing posts is only forbidden here in Mafia games, is editing posts during Mafia-games normally allowed in other places?

#142

The more inactive players seem to be Blackrune, akafa123, VyseGolbez, King_Titanite_XV, AMF, EternalMagician and lobotomyprince, and the latecomers who haven’t had a chance to do much in the first place, SleepingPliskin, Rabla and Doldod. Muski is the ultimate in inactiveness since they’ve yet to post once. I’d like to think that among the latecomers, I’ve been the most active, but I’ll leave you to be the judge of that.

Not counting the latecomers, Blackrune and Vyse come across as the most inactive. In Blackrune’s case, this is especially egregious, since he went out of his way to say that he usually plays an active game in which people will have lots of information for deciding whether he’s a witch or not. Vyse tried to start something with accusing Usagi, but then vanished. This makes me a little suspicious of him, since I recall him playing a more passive game in previous games in which he’s been a witch, compared to the games in which he’s been a human. But considering how he hasn’t been posting at all, it could be that something unexpected just came up and he hasn’t had the time to participate.

Then there’s the people who did little else than boarding the Blackrune Pressure Train after Antra got the engine running. Those would be akafa123, King_Titanite_XV and AMF. Joining in lynch trains started by other people is a classic way of looking productive while biding your time, so I’m wary of these people.

EternalMagician and lobotomyprince haven’t voted for anyone, I think, and seem to have been the most reluctant to accept the “press people more or less on random and see what shakes off” -strategy.

These assessments on activity were done by going through the thread once and taking notes on things that caught my interest, so it is entirely possible I missed stuff. If any of you feel like I missed some meaningful contribution of yours, please bring it up as soon as possible. I was mostly focusing on votes, so other types of contribution could’ve went by unnoticed when I was compiling my notes.

(also, EternalMagician just posted an analysis on his reads, which ups his contribution rating significantly.)

Outside activity-analysis… Since this is the first normal mafia game I’ve participated in (my only previous experience comes from the really unorthodox Blue Truth variant Karifean hosted quite a while ago), I’m not really that familiar with how people here usually play. I only remembered that anecdote about Vyse’s play styles because I think he himself (or someone else) brought it up in postgame analysis of some previous mafia game, and somehow that stuck in my mind. So, I don’t really have any reads on people playing unusually, other than the aforementioned thing about Vyse.

Antra seemed to kinda brush off my follow-up question about whether he thinks it would be a good strategy for the witch side to have someone play like him. I find it a bit strange that he completely ignored it, but I suppose that with 16 players, things can just get lost in conversation. But my whole point in asking that question was the idea that answering it is more stressful for a witch side player than a human side player, since a witch has to engage in double-think to analyse what their side would be doing from an outside perspective. Avoiding the question was one of the “this person could be a witch” -type answers I had thought of. So, Antra is one of the people I’m keeping my eye on.

Another thing is that the people who joined in the Blackrune train didn’t join in the Rabla train, even though the situations seemed pretty similar and some of the people who were really into pressuring Blackrune didn’t really seem to have their own plans afterwards that would’ve given them a reason to not change trains for the Rabla Express. The super obvious read would be that there were two witches who joined Antra in pressuring Blackrune, but Rabla is the third witch and they wanted to avoid momentum shifting that way, just in case it somehow carries on to the end of the day. But that seems a bit too obvious for me to trust that read on face value. Still, something to keep in mind.

#143

One thing to keep in mind. It isn’t too uncommon for witches to provide faked reads so keep an eye out for strange reasoning and ass-pulled accusations. I wouldn’t particularly trust anyone just because they provided some sort of read.

#144

I was a witch in my previous game and I spent basically all of my time doing exactly that, so I can vouch for not blindly trusting people just because they spend time doing analysis.

#145

Sorry for being inactive, I was sleeping.
I’m not really good at analyzing and nothing much happened now, but I will try to give you my thoughts.

Antra: was the one who offered to press people with voting, voted for Blackrune and Rabla, but I don’t think he is suspicious, he tried to act like a detective I guess and get everyone’s reaction, but went to bed because it was late and couldn’t continue. I supported his idea, but I didn’t see him vote for Rabla, lol, so I thought he abandoned it

Blackrune: nothing to say so far

Usagi: used nepnep text to get reactions and use blackrune as a bait, well atleast he tried to find out something, so I don’t think its suspicious

Vyse: accused Usagi and dissapeared, maybe he has some irl stuff to do, but that seemed a little weird to me

thesorceress: I agree with her that if some people are completely inactive we should lynch them

AMF: seems like he wants to lynch someone to get some information and doesn’t really care who

wonderlander: just pressed people to talk, nothing suspicious
EternalMagician: nothing suspicious too
lobotomyprince: nothing suspicious
pliskin: nothing suspicious
KingTitanite: nothing to say really
Blackrune: nothing to say so far

midsummer: very active just like usagi last game, I think he might be little suspicious, but his reads are very interesting so I think he is ok

i’m so bad at this :whine:

#146

I didn’t really say much because there’s nothing to actually say.

Being aware that this fact likely won’t really change for a while, however, I understand the heavy analysis. I’m more used to power struggles than this barebones detective structure, so even in my great knowledge I am rather inexperienced in this particular match.

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#147

That’s basically what kept me away, although it wasn’t as unforeseen. Technically I have to finish (and actually start) a character creation for a Neon Genesis Evangelion TTRPG in appr. 3 hours and I have only started reading the damn player handbook yesterday and have actually no idea at all how Eva even works or looks like (meaning I never watched that anime). On top of that, I haven’t started to compile notes on everyone and don’t yet know if I’m going to even do that, even though I know it’s foolish to blindly trust the notes the other players compile. Basically I want to find out if I can still play this game even without taking excessive notes.

Usagi’s explanation for her Nepnep text is okay for now, so I’ll test the waters in a different direction, because his explanations for voting did seem fishy to me.

Change Vote: AMF

Also @Karifean do you do Voting summaries or do we have to do those ourselves in this game?

#148

Yeah, sadly the timing wasn’t the best for me so now I’m kinda behind.
Also considering the last game just ended a few days before I guess I was just too tempted to catch a bit of a breather.

From my perspective midsummer would be trying pretty hard for a witch, so for now I feel like trusting them.

For Vyse, I’ll note that they sometimes seem to go the secretive route as human too. (the anonymous game comes to mind, not sure if I’m remembering this right)

I’m also not sure if the train against me was just coincidence or if there was some calculation behind it. Well, it happened pretty early on so I’m not sure if witches would have had time to discuss properly before then. I’m still looking at AMF for that one because that might have been the point when they thought to put some fuel into the fire.
…Also wow Vyse just posted with a vote on AMF so this will look suspicious coming right after that, but oh well.

#149

Yeah I find myself far more drained than I thought I’d be. Pretty content to let midsummer be the one who talks too much this time around for now (ahaha, sorry).

So the thing about my intuition is that it seems to always be right when I don’t follow it and always be wrong when I do follow it. Am I the only one who feels that way? I think I’ll wait to see more stuff still.

Vyse, feeling like Rosa in arc2 much? Two posts = two votes. Not really saying anything with this, just was the image that crossed my mind when I noticed this.

Not really having much else to add at this point. Let’s see…
Rather than reading people what strikes me is how uneventful this game is so far. It’s like most people seems passive but there’s this underlaying ambience of a balance that could easily break away anytime.

There’s a certain concern I realized tho and it’s that the witches have absolutely no fear of a protector. That somehow feels scarier than the lack of a detective. Maybe the best way to remain alive is to act like an idiot ahem.
Adding to this that Karifean will modkill inactive players unless he finds a replacement for them, I’m kinda wondering if we can risk losing 3 people on day 1 (one killed by vote, one killed by nightkill, one killed by modkill). So unless something better happen that actually brings up a serious suspicion (AMF may provide this), I may consider the Muski route for now (assuming they remain inactive). As long as everyone doesn’t cluster their vote at the same place, I think we may still be able to learn a few things from how people vote and accusations that were made.

@King_Titanite_XV Right it seems you didn’t backtrack your vote after and just went completely silent which fits what you said, sorry about that.

#150

Oh and…

I’m not sure if I should be proud or horrified that someone is starting to use my nepneptext.

#151

Im not sure where my vote should be aimed at right now…
Lemme just check if anyone’s been silent!

Is @Muski in the game? Looks like he is and he hasn’t spoken at all.

I’ll be off thread for a while so I’ll leave my vote on him for now.

Vote: Muski

#152

I watched ten minutes of that video you linked and it… did things… to me. I started feeling super lazy and I got pudding cravings. Eventually I passed out and when I woke up, my text was purple and there was no turning back.

Oh, and this reminds me, you wanted to say hi to me because we’ve never met before. Hi, UsagiTenpura. I don’t think we’ve talked before, either, so I might as well borrow a page from Pliskin’s book and say that I’m open to any questions you might have for me. I followed the previous mafia game, so I got an impression of your playstyle, but my previous game was a while ago, so you might not have seen me play before.

#153

Morning everybody.

I feel…uncomfortable voting for newbies in the first round of the game, so I’ll hold off on my @Muski vote for a little bit. This is their first time playing right?

Other than that, it’s nice to see Doldod and Rabla have shown up as well as all the analysis posts that have popped up in my absense. I’m going to hold off on mine. I don’t think I’ve got enough on most of the players to really put anything in writing yet.

#154

People that don’t talk at all are a tricky case. Like, if they’re on the witch team their partners would probably have pushed them to post at least once?
Unless they just haven’t been online at all, in which case there’s just no case to make for or against them.

#155

Morning.

While I am concerned about Muski’s absence, as it’s been almost 24 hours since this game started, (the timestamp as of this post reads 21h) I’m not as inclined to vote them yet, as it may come down to RL issues.

#156

Yeah, usually. But people who don’t post at all have got a tendency to get kicked off due to inactivity (I’ve seen it happen with humans and witches) and it makes things less fun when someone randomly dies three days in.

I’m not sure Muski is more or less likely a witch than anyone else, but if he doesn’t post on the first day, he’s probably not going to post.

#157

I get the whole “don’t feel comfortable voting for newbies”, but to be honest, that’s too much of an advantage we’re giving them. We need to judge everyone based on what they give, what they do or don’t do, etc. As a first time player last time, I think its fair for me to say that.

#158

Yeah, I know there’s still a decent case for it anyway because if they don’t post that means they won’t even vote = easier majority for the witches.

#159

agree

#160

@midsummer Well it looks like someone actually knows Neptune, that’s kinda great actually. I don’t really have any questions tho, people are tricky with words. I’d rather watch people’s actions and behaviours.

So from my personal position there’s like three new users (AMF/lobotomyprince/muski) and two people I don’t really know anything about (midsummer and antra) and also I barely know anything about Rabla outside of that one game that just tells me a quiet rabla is a suspicious rabla (but I don’t know how they’d act if they were human). That’s a lot of people I’m unable to comment much on, and there’s so many other people left…

But what strikes me in contrast with what doldod said is that from my pov the most likely “breeding zone” for witches lies with the players that everyone are unable to give off much of a reading about because “lack of information/can’t make much out of them” (without falling to extreme inactivity levels). This is a comfortable zone for witches especially early game because nobody has any actual argument to suspect them and so anyone attacking them ends up lacking in arguments and becoming the suspicious one for doing so. From what I saw it turns out that witches lying there is not particularly rare a thing. While it depends on people, that’d be my bet especially with how easy it would be to “hide in the crowd” right now considering the number of players.

Of course the problem is that with so many people and so few witches, it’s hard to find a particularly suspicious person within that group.

I’m too tired to even make out that list heh.


Plan: Worst idea ever
Let’s all vote for someone else so that everyone has a vote on each other in a really long chain creating a 16 people mexican standoff and watch as people panic react when time nearly runs out.

I’d actually totally push for that if everyone was active and people I know well ehehe…