Day 5’s OP seems to be claiming there’s 3 mins left.
Sorry for not posting but I was waiting for the discussion to start but when it did my parents had come over for dinner so it was a bit difficult to join in until they left.
So I noticed that people consider me to be the most likely suspect and that’s fair. But also remember that we don’t have that much time left so unless we hit a witch then the chances for doing that will lessen even further. And you won’t do that if you hit me as I’m human.
But while I don’t necessarily suspect you @UsagiTenpura I still have to wonder why you chose to vote for me if I’m the least likely suspect? Yes it might reveal some information but if you are wrong then you’ll have one chance less to catch a witch before the game is over. Just something to think about.
Oh, right, I miscalculated.
I can’t really come up with a valid theory for muski who’d be at this point my primary target. If you turn out to be human I’ll be heading toward midsummer, is my best bet right now. I’d probably have gone for him if he didn’t have 0 vote.
I wanted to bring you to the front but… well you saw what happened. Sorry if you turn out to be a human. At this point may as well make bets.
And so the fifth day has come to a close, after a victim quickly came into focus in the final hour.
Vote Results
EternalMagician - 4 (Doldod, midsummer, UsagiTenpura, SleepingPliskin)
Doldod - 1 (Wonderlander)
SleepingPliskin - 1 (King_Titanite_XV)
Wonderlander - 1 (Muski)
EternalMagician has been lynched, they were Human.
@UsagiTenpura @King_Titanite_XV @SleepingPliskin @EternalMagician @Muski @Wonderlander @Doldod @midsummer
The witch players may now choose a player to eliminate. They have 24 hours.
All human players ready to go for Day 6, please reply to your Role PM with an acknowledgement. If I receive an acknowledgement from all remaining human players, and the witches have made their decision, the Nighttime phase will end early.
The thread will be locked until Daytime begins.
2 Likes
Arise, everyone, a new day is upon us.
Unfortunately, @King_Titanite_XV has been murdered during the night.
Also, @Wonderlander has been modkilled for breaking a rule of the game. (Edit: He was human, by the way)
5 remain…
With the standings now 3 humans vs 2 witches, the game is now in LyLo. Unless a witch is lynched today, the witch team wins.
@UsagiTenpura @SleepingPliskin @Muski @Doldod @midsummer
The sixth Daylight phase has begun! You have 48 hours to decide on a lynch target. Majority lockdown triggers at 3 votes for a single target.
2 Likes
Omg really???
Ok so for humans, we’re in the worst position omg
2 Likes
On the one hand, humans immediately lose if we hit a human, which is bad.
On the other hand, there are two witches among five players. Even if we lynched randomly, we’d have an almost 50-50 chance of hitting a witch.
The way I see it, we have two factions. There are the people who voted for Wonderlander way back during day 2, and people who did not vote at all that day. We have three witch distribution possibilities among those factions. Either both witches voted for Wonderlander, one of them did so, or both of the witches abstained from voting that day.
Among the Wondervoters, there are only two people, SleepingPliskin and Doldod. It seems people have suspected both of them roughly equally.
Among the passives, there are midsummer, UsagiTempura and Muski. Out of these three, I have been under more suspicion than the other two.
I believe what we should ask ourselves is “which group is more likely to have a witch in it”. This should determine which faction we should target.
It probably surprises nobody that I subscribe to the idea of there being at least one, if not two, witches among the Wondervoters. I find it highly unlikely that both Usagi and Muski are witches. When I think back to day 2, being passive and not voting at all in that pivotal decision seems like a poor move on the witch side’s part. If they were looking way, way, way ahead, I guess it isn’t impossible, but I find it unlikely that they would’ve both made such a strange move way back on day 2 in some master plan to end up in this particular situation. And, arguably, if a witch had voted for akafa, they would’ve been in an even more secure position right now. I believe the reason the witch side has eliminated all akafavoters is exactly because they have been the most trusted individuals in the game. So even if they did have a far-reaching plan, that plan would’ve been suboptimal at best.
For a scenario in which at least one witch is among the Wondervoters, the recent developments have made sense. Nightkills have hit the people in direct opposition to them, the akafavoters, instead of thinning their ranks which would make it easier for a lynch to hit a witch among them. They have been quick to join in on vote trains against each other, which have just so happened to always hit humans. Rabla was lynched, which means that we now still have two Wondervoters left - if we had skipped Rabla, there would be only one. Though I guess that there were legitimate reasons to find Rabla suspicious, so I can’t just pin it down as a witch side plot with any certainty. But I sure would’ve preferred to thin down the ranks of the Wondervoters as quickly as possible, considering how much suspicion was thrown their way.
So, for now, for me it seems today is about choosing between Pliskin and Doldod. I’ll wait for people to write some stuff of their own before reflecting on this more.
Gotta be careful with voting now,. If someone votes for a human then the witches can just come out of the woodwork and finish the game right at that instant with majority of votes, so let’s take it slowly. Biggest question for me is how is @UsagiTenpura still alive at this point. Could be a witch, or maybe @midsummer is a witch who nightkilled @King_Titanite_XV because Usagi was about to cast suspicion on him, and nightkilling would only prove that this suspicion was correct.
Great the game starts late and while I’m away and now 3 humans are dead compared to yesterday…
In any case I think before killing each other it’d be nice to wait for everyone to at least say something (guess Doldod didn’t).
Sorry I’d say stuff but I’m too tired (eyes shutting on their own). I’ll bbl after a nap.
Well that seems to have interested people far more than I thought, I’m honestly surprised. Thanks.
Hmmm this would be a thing to create ehehehe… I guess it’d be informative at the very least to inform people about these major traits.
I guess an additional thing I could add there is that the majority of traits goes on a scale, rather than a X vs Y thing. At best one could be described as being “more X than the average” or “more Y than the average” which isn’t really helping things to make a simple MBTI like test to begin with. I’ll think about how to do this when I have time and (sadly) a better health.
Well I’m too tired to write this as well as I’d want, but I’ll begin for now with trying to explain why it’s not my survival that’s weird but rather, tho perhaps to a lesser degree than what you seem to think about me, your own @Muski (wether you’re a human or a witch)
King
So basically unlike what midsummer seems to claim up there, there’s been two groups of people since day2’s end when akafa died, yes, but these groups are the “people who voted akafa” and the “people who didn’t vote akafa”.
When you look at what’s been going on ever since, nightkills have always been people who voted akafa. I was thinking of this after Vyse’s death, but wanted to learn a bit more. However Antra’s weird death (if you check it says he was nightkilled because he wanted to quit the game) has made me not 100% certain. By now however there’s nothing that can be any clearer. Out of the 6 people who voted akafa, only one is left alive. Muski. Tho one was modkilled (sigh…) it’s pretty clear this was the idea. This also eliminate the worst case scenarios of having both witches voting for akafa.
Meanwhile during the day the 7 people from the other group has been essentially killing each other, including me. Right now this group is down to 4 people : Me, Midsummer, Doldod and Pliskin. Common sense suggest that the witches are two people of this group, and so the odds of a witch being caught right now is 1/2. Kill any of us, and those odds goes up to 2/3. No sane witch would ever do something like that. I thought this should be obvious by now.
However from my pov the weird thing is actually why King died, in lieu of you. If you’re a human, you should be pondering about this a lot. For one thing you were already set on a path to attack midsummer and it’s not entirely unlikely that you’d be suspicious of me as well considering I called you suspicious myself yesterday. For another thing King attacked Pliskin and may have very well done so again. Or not. We’ll never know.
From our the pov of everyone else who doesn’t know wether you’re human or a witch, I think it’s worth thinking that you’re in a kinda very favorable position now that you’re the only person who voted for akafa left alive. It’s pretty much nearly impossible that all humans agree on voting for you right now (talking to theoretical witch you). At the very least, not this day.
Now going to move on to possibilities. I’ll say it right away, conventional strategy suggests your best bet, at least for today, is to snipe me or midsummer. From my pov, that means midsummer.
This is addressed to the two other humans out there.
Possibilities
From my pov there are six basic possibilities.
Doldod/Pliskin
Doldod/Midsummer
Doldod/Muski
Pliskin/Midsummer
Pliskin/Muski
Midsummer/Muski
Replace your own name by mine to get the same thing.
So now unless this was an elaborate act to kill each other in order to make the other sound less suspicious that somehow worked even more in their favour due to me voting for EM instead of either of them…
The scenario of Doldod/Pliskin is unlikely. Leaving these five scenarios.
Doldod/Midsummer
Doldod/Muski
Pliskin/Midsummer
Pliskin/Muski
Midsummer/Muski
Among these five scenarios, due to having voted for akafa, it relatively makes his own humanity sound higher/better than any of us to everyone else, leaving aside your own self, obviously.
It leaves these two scenarios as being more likely.
Doldod/Midsummer
Pliskin/Midsummer
Both includes, from my pov of course, midsummer.
From his pov, it should point to the same thing except me instead.
From the pov of theoretical human Pliskin and theoretical human Doldod, this doesn’t apply very much, outside of the Muski part.
The likely scenarios left are…
PliskinOrDoldod(whichever you aren’t)/Me
PliskinOrDoldod(whichever you aren’t)/Midsummer
Me/Midsummer
It’s a bit more muddy, so you may feel differently if you’re unsure about me or midsummer, but very certain the other is a witch.
From theoretical human Muski’s pov, things are more blury, but still. Should also view Doldod/Pliskin as unlikely, but that means from your pov that between midsummer and me, there’s at least one witch.
This means that normally I should vote for midsummer. It’s fairly likely that one of us will die tonight, and from my pov there’s incredibly good odds that midsummer is a witch.
counterpoints
While muski doesn’t remember this, it’s also a thing that last game we have constantly … basically ignored doldod/sapphire due to not wanting to take the risk mostly and going to the safer “world” of the others. Ultimately, this bite us in the ass and we lost. Especially at the 11th hour, we were defeated due to this.
So if there’s anything left to ponder by this point, it’s a scenario along those lines.
For any of us who isn’t Muski and is human (meaning I’m possible talking to a single person if muski is actually human). He is in a perfectly favorable situation right now. Exactly like sapphire and doldod on day4, it would’ve required not only all humans working together, but even the unprobably help of an already caught witch to kill them. Yet, this is what we should’ve tried.
However there’s nothing as condemning about Muski as there was last game with the lovers, so it’s a scenario to consider very carefully. Even if Muski is a witch he has a partner out there.
So unless you think Muski is the most probable witch, and unsure about who their partener is, it’s best not to consider it, at least this turn. It’s a very risky thing, however it should be remembered that he was not nightkilled as I pointed above and *now finds himself in a perfectly favorable situation even if we snipe a witch tonight.
The other scenario is perhaps flying even lower in the radar, however it should be worth mention that pliskin himself mentionned that he’d do things like that yesterday before voting King.
It involves actually something very similar to the idea that theoretical human Muski would’ve voted for akafa to find himself in this scenario. Except the idea there is that Doldod and Pliskin being two of the three people who voted for wonderlander left alive would’ve chosen to vote for each other since they had at the base the highest chance of falling under fire. One would die, and the other would appear to be a human in comparison for killing the other being a witch.
Sadly I sorta stupidly didn’t consider how much time was left when I voted for EM yesterday and both moved very quickly to kill him. It’s not like it makes no sense either if either or even both are humans : EM could’ve popped anytime and kill one of them simply to save his own life and be legitimized in doing so. Everyone just wanted to survive, wether they were humans or witches. But in the case where both are witches, they had not only an opportunity to kill a human, but also to be freed of being suspected together due to having nearly killed each other.
Both of these scenarios are “conventionally” unlikely, but when I think about King dying, it seems like either could be possible. Doing things like voting on gut feeling isn’t really my thing. From my pov I read doldod and pliskin’s behaviour as more likely human than witch, which in comparison makes muski and midsummer sound more likely to be witch in behaviour alone. But I also know them while I never played with muski or midsummer. Meanwhile, it’s also true both have the highest kill record of humans this game, especially pliskin, and also voted for wonderlander on day2.
As I mentionned earlier, conventional strategy from my pov suggest midsummer and one of the two is a witch, and while I said I would chose to save pliskin over doldod yesterday, I’m not sure how I’d react to this if I had to make the choice again since tomorrow is another day, and many things can happen since then (including my own death, in day or night). I also have to keep in mind King’s death in all of this.
I may as well say that however while it may change, I’m tempted to think my oddly improbably scenario mentionned earlier of Muski/Midsummer is starting to sound somewhat credible by now. But who knows, it may get proven wrong pretty soon for all I know. Still makes midsummer a better bet for now.
And so in conclusion, unless anyone wants to add what they think about my counterpoints, which I want to emphasis are something to go for only if we really want to make a huge gamble, the better option from me is to vote midsummer, and overall I think it should be played between the two of us from an external pov.
Now that I wrote all of this, I’m probably going to become the person under most suspicion, because that’s how it goes. I’m not going to bother defending myself or writing more about this beyond that. This is my final contribution to this game, hope it helps anyone to think things, even tho it points toward me heh. I just can say that I’m pretty certain midsummer is a witch.
TLDR : My best bet is on midsummer, I hope you agree because it’d be nice to at least kill one more witch.
… I’d really like to know why details so often doesn’t work on this thread.
Sigh…
This was meant to be cleaner looking as a result
Uh wtf. The first part of the post somehow ends up belonging to another thread entirely. The MBTI one.
… I’m pretty confused how that got there ahaha…
Well that’s pretty in-depth. Hopefully we can get everyone’s opinion on that Day.
Hmm, I’m not sure whether we should bet on Usagi being a witch and vote for her. It’s probably too risky, but I’d feel so dumb if we lost to a witch like that, heh. I guess that leaves Pliskin and midsummer (I agree that Muski can be safe for today). I’m leaning toward midsummer especially after Usagi’s analysis. He was also caught multiple times on weird behavior, decisions not to vote etc. It’s not like Pliskin’s track history is much cleaner, but his behavior is less suspicious to me at this point, even though I chose him by RNG the last day.
Oh, Muski voted for akafa? I somehow forgot about that, I thought he didn’t vote for either. And before you claim my supposed forgetfulness is some kind of witch side plot, please remember that it is trivially easy to show that I was wrong.
Usagi… Your analysis seems a little stacked against me. You claim that the Doldod/Pliskin scenario is unlikely because trying to attack each other to make the other seem less suspicious is too elaborate to be probable. If the witch side players attacking each other is so unbelievable to you… how exactly are the last two scenarios any more likely to you than the others? I’d like to remind you that Pliskin hasn’t spent a day without calling me out as a serious witch suspect, starting as early as day 2. Doldod hasn’t been quite as active on that front as Pliskin, but it isn’t like he thinks I’m his best buddy, either. Likewise, I have been breathing fire solely on the four Wondervoters since day 3. While I’ve sadly been off in my suspicion the last two days, I have always advocated the strategy of hitting those four until a witch is found. And I have case a fair amount of suspicion on Pliskin throughout the game, more so during days 3 and 4, less so afterwards. Doldod has been lower on my list than Pliskin.
Taking that into account, I could see you believing me and Doldod are the witch team, but you conveniently leave the mutual aggression factor completely off your reasoning when it comes to me, whereas you made a point of pointing it out elsewhere. This makes it feel like you started writing that assuming I’m already a witch, which ups my suspicion on you somewhat.
I also believe you dismissed the Pliskin/Doldod angle a bit too easily, as the momentum had shifted against them since day 3, it’d be suicidal for them to not point guns at each other when most everyone else is pointing theirs at them. You mentioned this in your counterpoints, but the way your posts is structured, you first bring up the conclusion that assumes Doldod and Pliskin can’t both be witches as the result of your analysis, and then bring up this important factor as a small, forgettable footnote in the counterpoint section. This also makes it look like you tried to forcibly end up in a conclusion that allows only me to be the culprit, but realized there’s a flaw and made a small mention of it elsewhere so that you can show that you didn’t ignore it, but the main point of your post that is conveyed to the readers still remains the initial conclusion that conveniently ignored it.
Attacking me really makes sense makes sense, since every other player sans me has expressed suspicion on me. Muski, Doldod and Pliskin all think I’m a good candidate for a lynch. Why not join the train while you still can? Nothing would make you look better.
Regarding Doldod’s post… could you please elaborate on “the multiple times I’ve been caught on weird behaviour”. I can think only of my refusal to vote on day 2, which I explained as an overreaction to the claim that I was manipulating people on day 1, which I also acknowledge was a stupid thing to do. During these past few days, I have taken decisive action instead of waiting for people to start trains and then join in the one that is the most convenient. Wouldn’t you think those people who hang back until there’s a train that advances their agenda so that they can join in on it are more suspicious?
Oh, and I should mention that I will be away for pretty much the entire day today. I might be able to make some short posts occasionally, but I’m not going to count on that.
uhhhhhhh. After reading both of your posts @UsagiTenpura and @midsummer, I don’t know what to think exactly. While I think that @Doldod is probably a witch in this scenario, I do have to say that I am also suspicious of similar stuff. Usagi seems to believe of Midsummer/Doldod a bit. which I guess supports my previous theory of an active member controlling the narrative. However, I feel like Usagi and Muski are in a position that seems a bit too convenient. My feeling is this: my gut tells me that one of the witches is @muski as the second contributing member out of the five, with @Doldod being the first I think (for reasons). Though I do believe that both @midsummer and @UsagiTenpura are both smart and articulate enough to write long posts that can potentially their win as witches. But Usagi did say these things:
And other quotes similar of the vein of “I’m too tired with being a bit burned out”, which I’m willing to believe. So her last post makes sense if she thinks she’s both going to get night killed and wants to finish this game with a conclusion thoughts. So honestly, in terms of clear intent, I think Usagi is transparent enough, because I don’t think Usagi is the type of person to lie about her tiredness and problems, just to win a mafia game. Midsummer gets busy but he can still relatively play, which makes me suspicious of him as a potential “active” witch. Of course I would have to think who between @Doldod and @Muski is, though I’m leaning with @Doldod at this time