@cjlim2007, care to explain why you voted NO?
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Well I figured this game is sort of like a different deception game called Avalon, and my play style for that game is almost always vote no unless I fully trust the selected people or it is the last vote before a randomly selected policy. Basically the reasoning for this is to get more information. If everyone just votes yes, the game will go kinda quick. People will be randomly selected and randomly trusted. Sure, you could say that because the first one worked, why not trust the second group, but because they are completely separate you really shouldnât use that logic. I like voting no because I can find who else voted in support or in opposition of certain people, especially if the policy pick is radical. But because everyone else voted yes, thereâs not much I can analyze here. Everyone here is following the crowd, and in that case, radicals have an advantage in information where as progressives are gaining almost no information from this. I believe that paying attention to voting patterns gives clues on who is who but I really havenât learned much considering everyone is voting similarly so far.
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But if you were trying to gain information, what can you possibly accomplish by voting no? Weâd just need to vote on another person, again and again until you decide on one. But more importantly, voting YES canât really go wrong for a progressive right now.
If you vote YES and it turns out that they are Progressive, then chances are weâll have a progressive policy. If you vote YES and they turn out to be a radical, then theyâll push a radical policy, which is good because it means weâll be able to determine who is radical or not, and weâll even be able to use Investigation on another player to determine their alignment. Either the progressives get closer to victory or they gain valuable information. Thereâs no point in voting NO this early in the game. It just postpones things for no reason, and it even casts suspicion on you.
If it turns out that Rabla is in fact a progressive, then weâll have reason to question your alignment. Perhaps the reason you voted NO was because you know Rabla is a progressive.
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You can say that too, thatâs fine. Just be aware that we are not only voting for rabla but also eisen. I donât like to trust people based on words alone. Anyways, you need both people because assuming there are 5 progressive policies in the deck and like 17 radical ones, chances are, eisen will get 2 radical and one progressive. They both have to be progressive or really good at schemes because eisen has to pass down at least one progressive and rabla has to discard the other radical.
Honestly, youâre right in that I have no reason to vote no, but in this case, there isnât too much of a difference between yes and no because we have so little information. I like voting no because of personal bias though.
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Like I said, even if a radical policy is played, all it means is more information, which is good.
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@Yerian@EisenKoubu@Aspirety@Rabla@Pepe@DaBackpack@cjlim2007@Sapphire@Necem
Gather round, members of the council! The government has made their choice, a new policy has been enacted!
âSpecial exceptions to the previously-enacted policy; lolis may be taken home without consent after receiving a legal permit to do so. This âOmochikaeri permitâ gives the bearer unrestricted freedom to observe and apprehend lolis on the grounds that he/she otherwise does their part keeping the village safe and friendly to outsiders. A permit will not be granted to outsiders who have not lived in Hinamizawa for more than a year, or villagers bearing a criminal record with unacquitted offenses.â
Everyone present gasps in shock as the meaning of what was just enacted sickers in. There can be no doubt about it. Itâs a radical policy.
@EisenKoubu, you now have the privilege to make use of Investigation, allowing you to discover one playerâs alignment. Feel free to get input from other players as to who should be investigated, and once youâve made up your mind, state the name of player you want to investigate in bold. I will then PM you that playerâs alignment.
Just to recap, if you happen to pick Oyashiro themselves with Investigation, you are only told that they are a radical, nothing beyond that.
@Karifean does investigation tell everyone who eisen investigates but not what that person is? Or is his choice and the result all secret?
âŚWell, this is embarrassing. ._.
UmâŚwell, with the passing of that law, I have authority to make an investigation. I would very much like to receive input from everyone regarding who should be investigated, so that I may come to further knowledge of who I may help bring to justice for the passing of this ridiculous law. Reminder that I cannot investigate myself, as I already know where my loyalties lie. At least, I think so. 
(Donât worry, my loli niece. I havenât failed you just yet⌠
)
Yes, everyone is told who Eisen investigates, but the real, unfiltered information goes to him alone.
And no you cannot investigate yourself. You have an obligation to make use of your privileges 
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We-he-hell now, seems weâve got ourselves into a little pickle. Well, it doesnât seem all that bad for us folks. Iâm sure anyone who is a resident of Hinamizawa would have no ill-intents in taking home lolis. I reckon they would just want to bring them home and give them some tea and cookies. Or maybe they just have a tendency to go all hau hau too much. Regardless! This is a radical policy, and most of us ainât too fond of that, are we?
What do you mean by that, Mr. Koubu? Did neither of you have no choice in choosing a progressive policy? Or maybe you yourself cause this to happen, by discarding one of the progressive policies? I just donât see why youâd feel all guilty about this if you didnât do anything wrong. Let the villagers know, what caused this to happen?
Itâs unfortunate, however it worked out, but I was given two Radical policies.
I donât want to think that our great defender of lolis would ever discard a Progressive so maybe it was just bad luck on our part this round.
Sorry to let you down Papa Peeps ;_;
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I feel the fault is mine for choosing someone whom I thought I could trust to build a better Hinamizawa. Whomever wrote up that policy and put it on my desk likely knew that the radicals had power within the new government, and I feel partly responsible for betraying the expectations of the villagers, especially my loli niece. I promised I would make the village safer for her to live in the event she leaves the hospital, but I failed her most of all in this regard. :â(
âŚPardon me. In any event, although I meant well, it was the fact that I trusted Rabla to move this village toward a progressive future that places some of the blame on me. In spite of this, I will use my power of investigation to find a lead on who these radicals are, in the hopes of bringing them to justice for tarnishing my goals. I fear remaining as open-minded as I was before may be proof that I, as a representative of the village, havenât learned from my mistakes. Next time something like this happens, I plan to think more carefully about whom to trust, akin to how @Aspirety and @cjlim2007 behaved at the beginning of this game.
@Rabla says you gave him two radical policies? Are you not going to refute that claim? Would you like to tell us what you saw?
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So he is saying that he gave Rabla a progressive and a radical policy? While Rabla says he got 2 radical policies from Eisen?
Letâs say they where both radical. They would know about each other and they wouldnât try to make each other look guilty. Eisen could have done this by saying he got 3 radical policies.
Since they are blaming each other for this, one of them has to be radical while the other one is progressive.
I think Eisen looks suspicious here. He didnât even try to excuse himself. And the first thing heâs talking about is his right to investigate someone and he wants our input for who he should choose. But he gives no idea himself. Of course, if he is radical, he already knows who is radical and who is progressive so this whole investigation thing doesnât matter for him and he can let us choose whoever we want to regain our trust.
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However, if we assume EisenKoubu is a radical, then that means he elected Rabla knowing he was progressive. Was that risk really necessary? Given this, itâs more likely that Rabla is the radical.
But if we turn the chessboard around, maybe Eisen knowingly took this risk to take suspicion off him. That said, chessboard thinking only really works on people who arenât EisenKoubu⌠What a troublesome person. giggle
This game is truly starting to get interesting.
At any rate, I donât believe we should use investigation on Rabla. Eisen, Iâd keep quiet for now and let the adults decide who to investigate. It would be very bad for you if you chose somebody yourself and they turn out to be progressive.
I propose either cj or myself. CJ is currently the most suspicious, but the opportunity to clear my name would be very welcome. Of course, if you trusted my word, then you wouldnât need to investigate me, but words are useless in proving my innocence.
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Assuming the first policy was the most efficient case, the chance of Eisen getting more than one progressive policy is like, 5/13*4/12, if I remember statistics correctly, which is ~12.8%. That really isnât a big risk at all. And even if he got more than one progressive policy, assuming that Rabla was good, the progressive one would be passed making Eisen look trustworthy too. So in actuality, this move had no real risk to Eisen.
Currently, Eisen has the investigative power and if he investgates someone, can we believe his words? Iâm not quite sure yet. Iâll let you guys decide. Of course, Eisen might also be good and this elaborate scheme has been planned out by Rabla which in actuality really isnât that hard because all he really did was claim that Eisen threw him under the bus. For now though, Iâm leaning towards Eisen being bad unless he says something about what happened during the enactment and discards.
Oh, I missed that detail. Eisen is able to lie about the investigation. As long as heâs an extremist, the investigation is null and void.
Tch. That throws a wrench in my strategyâŚ
I retract my earlier statement about the investigation. @EisenKoubu, I want you to choose someone. If you successfully identify an extremist, youâll regain my trust.
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Man, Iâm just noticing how because this game moves slowly, thereâs time to come up with crazy theories on what the hell is going on.
These two scenarios are just things to think about.
1.What if Eisen and Rabla are both radicals and Rabla is just blaming Eisen to stay under the radar but then Eisen doesnât blame Rabla. Then Eisen investigates a progressive and claims they are radical, throwing them under the bus and convincing everyone that heâs a progressive. Letâs call this new person scapegoat. So scapegoat then believes that Eisen is bad and that Rabla is good because he is the reverse of Eisen. So scapegoat sides with Rabla but in the end, everyone is led by radicals.
2.What if Eisen was good and just happened to get 3 radical cards. Now this scenario has a probability, assuming the same as my other probability calculation, the chance is 9/148/137/12 which is ~23.1%. This may explain why Rabla is blaming Eisen but Eisen is trying not to blame Rabla.
But hey, itâs all just a theory, a game theory, Iâm gonna go the f*ck to sleep now.
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But EisenKoubu was blaming Rabla.