I’m glad we’ve reached an understanding.
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Huh, here I thought you were just following the pattern. I trusted you but you fooled me! D:
But well, all things considered, this actually explains your suspicious (at least, in my eyes) behavior from before. We’ve all been under the assumption that at least one progressive policy was drawn, and pushed our suspicions based on those but if they never happened, then, well… Everything checks out. The only one who didn’t start panicking was you because you knew the initial draw 
So I’m leaning more on believing this story about three radical policies being drawn. At least, for now.
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There’s still reason to be suspicious of her, but I’m a lot less certain now
With that out of the way I will calculate the probabilities in the case of hat is telling the truth in which RRR was drawn or if hat drew RRP and the P got lost somewhere
If round 3 result was RRR, current stack is 3 progressive, 5 radical, 8 total.
- RRR 0.179
- RRP 0.536
- RPP 0.268
- PPP 0.018
If the result was RRR then the current stack is 2 progressive, 6 radical, 8 total.
- RRR 0.357
- RRP 0.536
- RPP 0.107
- PPP 0
"Yikes, I’m leaving a note for myself, make graphs from the beginning of the game, not when you become relevant!!"
Thanks me…
But anyway, sorry for taking so long on my decision, I was carefully analyzing everyone’s actions until now and putting it all in a spreadsheet. I didn’t want to just choose someone at random to investigate, I wanted this to be fruitful. Still haven’t come to a decision.
But! I did figure out who have higher chances of being progressive. So let me share this:
@Pepe and @Seraphitic are trustworthy. Because even though they aren’t active speakers, Pepe was radical last game so the chances of him being radical is very low. And Seraphitic seems like he’s trying his best to put the information he thinks up to words and of course analyzes a lot.
I’m also leaning on @EisenKoubu being also progressive, but I have not much info on them, so I can’t tell.
On just suspicious category we have @thesorceress, @cjlim2007, @pictoshark, @Aspirety and myself. Why myself? Because I do not trust myself! 
I have nothing much to say here, aside from having just a hunch. Except for @Aspirety, who just sort of told the radicals to not rush into being president, as if making me an example of what not to do.
The one I’m leaning more onto being radical is @Wonderlander. Mostly because they told the first government to specifically go for progressive policy, from people I find suspicious at least, nominated themselves to be chancellor after introducing themselves, and I guess have been generally passive, aside from defending me and stuff. I might be missing stuff here that might make them innocent, but these are my thoughts, you guys don’t have to agree with me.
The one I have no idea on is @Necem, but mostly because the info I have on them can go either way.
Anyway, I propose that I investigate the ones I find suspicious or necem. So the list for me to pick from would be thesorceress, cj, pictoshark, aspi and necem. To shorten the list I would also take out cj and pictoshark, since they’re the most hunch based, so I would have to choose from thesorceress, aspi and necem.
What do you guys think?
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Gambler’s fallacy. Look it up.
I’ll still trust him until proven otherwise.
And really? You have nothing else to say? It’s not like my reasoning goes down because of one fallacy. Especially when it’s minor.
You’re usually much chattier than thiiiiis~
That one point is all I’m complaining about. Just what I quoted. The rest of your reasoning seems to hold up.
Limitations placed upon me by a yet another meat doll limit the amount of time I can stay in this plane (I have a test on Thursday, I’m trying to devote time to studying). That’s all.
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Ah, fair enough!
The stats part of me wants to punch you. That is the most bullshit reasoning I’ve ever heard. I’m not telling you to check Pepe or anything cuz he doesn’t seem any more special than anyone else. Remember, independent trails mean that even if he got picked as radical last time does not affect the results of this round. He is just as likely to be a radical as the rest of us.
Trials, not trails
I only realized after I posted that pictoshark also commented about that. Oh well. That’s just how triggered I got lol
-blink blink-
Are you okay? I’m not sure if you’re just generally this angry or if I’m really that annoying or you’re acting angry on purpose.
‘Cause I just set out my reasoning and I rely on luck a bit too much. And I wasn’t given any reason to find him suspicious just yet so… And there’s no reason to be angry or emotional dude. O.o’
@PocketyHat have you investigated anybody yet? Because it seems like the privilege phase is almost over.
Indeed, there are but 45 minutes remaining. If @PocketyHat doesn’t pick anyone before then I’ll throw a nine-sided coin to decide their target at random.
@thesorceress @Necem @PocketyHat @Pepe @pictoshark @EisenKoubu @Seraphitic @Aspirety @Wonderlander @cjlim2007
@PocketyHat has decided the investigate @thesorceress and was granted a single red truth. Now let’s move on~
Current game status
Radical policies played: 1
Progressive policies played: 2
Next presidential privilege unlocked by radical policy: Investigation
Previous government: PocketyHat and Aspirety
Remaining policies in stock: 8
Election Phase
@Pepe, you are the current presidential candidate, please nominate a chancellor. Do note that PocketyHat and Aspirety cannot be nominated as chancellors since they were part of the previous government. Feel free to take your time and discuss the results of the previous government phase with your fellow council members, but once you’ve made up your mind regarding a chancellor, please state their name in bold. We will then start the voting. You have 24 hours to choose someone.
Remember, as soon as Pepe nominates a chancellor, the voting begins and with it the 24 hour time limit.
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Aaand I hurt my own pride there, haha
"Deserved it"
Hush
But anyway, @thesorceress is progressive, so trust them all you want. Or not, if you think I’m radical.
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Thanks.
Between this and the last game I’m starting to think I might just be really bad at not coming off as shady.
Or not such a good luck.
since the info that I already had didn’t really allow me to logically choose from you, aspi and necem. So I just chose randomly.
Bright side to this, I can at least trust someone.
Not sure about anyone else…
Nah, I’m serious about the thanks.