[Good] I’ll accept your sound theory.
Now explain the device that makes the gun disappear.
Beatrice accepted Battler’s method X cause she loved him.
However, I do not love you, hence I won’t accept method X.
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The gun itself is tied by an elastic or rope so that it is attached to a heavy object which is behind the dresser. As soon as the triger-puller is killed it is only natural that their hold on the gun releases and it is pulled behind the dresser by the weight of the heavy object. This is foreshadowed by Umineko’s inspiration from Golden Age Detective mysteries and in particular Agatha Christie’s “And Then There Were None” in which a similar trick was used.
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okay
Geez, why you gotta be like that
We’re sciencing our way through this. I never got to do this my first time through Umi and i’m quite enjoying it 
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it is fun I do admit
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@MagusVerborum Alright, I can concede to such a device.
Next point: This thread is about the murder weapon. What were the weapons (or method) used for all the other murders?
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As much as I’d love to also hit you up on that offer I have to get to bed.
You can expect a barrage of blue tomorrow though
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Here are a few good pictures of characters from the games holding the rifle in question:
These examples give us something to compare against visually in the future.
Incidentally, I’m sure you’ve already seen this but… just in case you haven’t… here you go: http://www.imfdb.org/wiki/Umineko:_When_They_Cry
According to IMFDB, the guns used in the games are allegedly Winchester 1894’s, chambered in .30, which have been modified to look more like the Mare’s Leg (in their words: by cutting down their barrels and re-fitting them with enlarged lever loops.) That claim, however, sounds completely wrong to me. At first glance, you would think it would be much easier to convert a Mare’s Leg to shoot .30 than to modify an 1894 so extensively as to look like a Mare’s Leg. Besides that the lever loop and the barrel-size of the “Rokkenjima Rifle” are obviously different than that of the 1894, the gun’s stock, the side of the gun, the shape of the wooden foregrip, and the front of the gun are also distinctly different from those of the 1894.
Actually, there’s really no other way to say this: The “Rokkenjima Rifle” would be a near-exact duplicate of Steve McQueen’s Mare’s Leg, if not for the fact that it has a blued-steel finish, as opposed to a brass finish.
As you can clearly see by these pictures, merely cutting down the barrel of an 1894 (pictured here: http://images.gunsinternational.com/listings_sub/acc_13414/gi_100828375/ANTIQUE-WINCHESTER-1894-RIFLE_100828375_13414_6E7B579FF85E3872.JPG) and refitting it with an enlarged level loop would simply not do the trick. Anyone with eyes can tell that the 1894 is nothing like the “Rokkenjima Rifle,” which resembles the Mare’s Leg much more closely. The 1894 and the Mare’s Leg are simply two completely different firearms.
Regarding the sound of the gunshot: .22LR is just about as quiet of a caliber as you can get. Silenced, firing a .22LR pistol is usually not much louder than clapping your hands loudly. Done correctly, it sounds sort of like a loud puff of air, and certainly does resemble the kind of sound which is described in “Our Confession.” Incidentally, you can buy a Mare’s Leg chambered in .22LR, but I seriously doubt that .22LR was the caliber which THE CULPRIT employed. My reason for saying this, besides that this theory seems to directly contradict what is said in-game, is because .22LR is notorious for its lack of firepower. This ““feature”” occasionally causes bullets to become deflected off of bone and remain within the body. Therefore, .22LR isn’t always guaranteed to create an exit wound, depending on the distance and angle from which it is fired. While this increases the caliber’s overall killing potential, believe it or not, and could even explain a few of Rokkenjima’s mysteries… I think it is much more likely that that the sound of the gunshot was merely reduced due to environmental factors. The island contains a lot of surrounding forest to dampen the sound and mitigate echo any time the gun is fired outside (not to mention, the sounds of fierce wind and downpour which could also help smother out a gunshot.) And if the gun is being fired inside… well, there you go. It was fired inside, and usually inside an adjacent building at that.
PS: Sayo is not the culprit, but that’s a completely separate issue which deserves a thread of its own.
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Do we actually have a thread on that theory on rokkenjima?
It’d be difficult to title I presume because of spoilers.
This is a really good post! Helps to clarify things a lot more but I do have one question.
Wouldn’t firing a gun inside make a lot more noise? Like, the walls inside the guesthouse and the mansion are very thick but I always assumed that firing inside a building would be louder. Not that it matters thanks to the typhoon of course as it could easily be passed off as thunder and I doubt that Sayo used her gun for everything.
Neo basically means that Sayo’s not the culprit of Rokkenjima Prime, which is true.
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Erika being able to hear through the guest room walls suggest otherwise
That’s cause she’s a Mary Sue. She can (basically) do anything with her detective powers.
This is due to a concentrated effort on Erika’s part. Battler never stops to listen for a gunshot, certainly not in the next room over. If he did he would probably be able to hear them!
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Erika states “There was only a single thin wall between them.”
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That doesn’t mean that all walls are thin inside the guesthouse-the walls could be thin for just that floor or just for the space between the cousin’s and Erika’s room.
'Sides, I can imagine that the walls in the mansion would be thick
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Oh jeez, help me out here. How on Earth do I type in blue truth? That seemed to be the one thing the tutorial didn’t cover, hah.
In any case…
Yes, by firing a gun inside, you are almost guaranteed to go deaf unless you are wearing all kinds of ear protection. What I really meant to say by that is something more along the lines of “Let’s say someone fired the gun inside the guest house while everyone else was inside the mansion. There is no way that the gunshot would be heard from the mansion, because of A: The fact that the sound would be mostly contained inside the guest house and B: Because there are elemental factors at work outside that would severely dampen the sound-waves.” Summoning a conveniently-timed thunderclap in order to cover up a gunshot sounds too much like witchery to me… but a gunshot could definitely be disguised as thunder during a hurricane.
Not only is she not the culprit on Rokkenjima Prime, it’s actually impossible for her to be the culprit in any gameboard/ theory that treats Knox’s and Van Dyne’s laws as significant. I intend on making a thread about it at some point here.
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To type in a color, use:
[colour=x] insert colored text here [/colour]
Just replace x with blue, or red, or whatever you like!
But replace ‘colour’ with ‘color’ because we’re American round here 
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i make a mistake, the gun used by Rosa in the fantasy scene IS a Winchester chambered in .45 long colt. This already significantly narrows down our search.
as for those trying to discredit the fantasy scene, in my opinion I still see it as something to keep in mind. after all, it is possible to write a fictitious story and use real life elements. After all, in “reality” Rosa did try to escape with Maria off Rokkenjima.
I’m personally going along with the “Winchester Sawed-Off Rifle chambered in .45 Long Colt” theory, unless somebody can without a doubt disprove the description of the gun used in the fantasy scene.