Does Ange notice the first four digits are Battler’s Birthday?
I don’t think so … and she would have seen the numbers at least three times, once when she was very young and the envelope came to her house, and two more times with Nanjo’s son and Kumasawa’s son. I wonder whether she just didn’t see it because she wasn’t looking for it? Or whether there’s some deeper meaning there?
Hmm. The numbers being part a passcode don’t preclude it being Battler’s birthday. Someone would’ve had to choose those numbers, and ‘someone’s birthday’ is a classic lazy password choice in mysteries. Like when the investigator needs to get into someone’s account, so they look for clues on the person’s desk, and find a circled date in a calendar. This mystery almost goes in the opposite direction, though. Knowing the password, who would choose a password like that?
It’s already been said by person who drove the boat that Kinzo pays a damn ton to them, so I’d assume that Nanjo would be given that much money, or that at the very least Genji would have that much money saved up. Maybe Kumasawa did, but I’m not entirely sure.
It’d have to be someone who was at the family conference for many years (since Maria apparently met Beatrice for as long as she could remember), and since Gohda is recent, then it’s possible to take him out of the equation, but that’s about all I can find to narrow down suspects.
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You also have to remember that this person has to be someone that Maria would recognize as Beatrice at the end of Ep 1. Someone who was alive, and not already accounted for. To put it another way, someone who had the means to still be alive.
The only possible suspect is Kanon as his death was not confirmed. We have no room to suspect any others thanks to Beato’s red of: “I guarantee the identities of all unidentified corpses. Therefore, there were no body double tricks!”
We can suspect Kanon as his body was never seen by Battler.
C’mon guys, can we at least unite on this blue: Whenever Beatrice is seen (if the witness is not lying), it is Kanon in disguise, wearing the dress of the portrait. Their difference in cup size can be accounted for by chest padding.
EDIT:
If you still aren’t subscribing to mine and @mimsy’s theory about most Reds not applying to Kanon, then you have to accept him as a suspect for the Beato disguise, as you have to accept him as alive at the end of Episode 1.
Do you want to know why?
When you combine these reds together you arrive at an undeniable truth: He is not dead How else can you die if everyone else is incapable of killing you, you can’t kill yourself, and you can’t die in an accident?
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But Maria has apparently been seeing Beatrice for years, and Kanon is only 16. Would you be saying that Kanon at maybe 5 years earlier (he didn’t work there 6 years ago, since he just met Kanon then), he was able to disguise as her and hide the size difference? Are there multiple people who disguise themselves as Beatrice?
Natural causes.
I actually do think the theory you guys have is pretty legit, just playing Devil’s Advocate here.
Maria is observant and might notice that if Beatrice switched during visits to Rokkenjima. It’s likely that if they were switching “Beatrice”'s actor then they would only do so between visits.
It seems likely that the person who gave Maria the letter and the person who appeared at the end are the same person.
At that age???
If they were switching Beatrice’s actor, then giving the letter would in the end narrow down suspects exponentially to all the people who dressed up as her. So we’d have to assume that more people are in on these murders if the person didn’t arouse suspicion.
Can’t get to the actual character profiles right now, but on VNDB at least, it lists him as “frail,” which could hint at something more, like some kind of disease, or something else. Sometimes people can just straight up die in their sleep even with no health problems, so anything is possible.
So, just to get this argument down:
Kanon was found stabbed through the chest. He died of natural causes later.
Do I even need to argue against this? The devil’s advocacy is over dude.
If we believe Kanon did it, then we have to assume that after he was stabbed in the chest, he had enough energy to get back into the Beatrice outfit, kill Genji, Nanjo, Kumasawa, Natsuhi (maybe), Battler, Jessica, George, and Maria. If you’re capable of doing that, then chances are that being stabbed didn’t do much.
Yes I know, but to suggest he died of natural causes is to suggest that he died after being stabbed through the chest and his death had nothing to do with that.
If I injected HIV into your bloodstream, and you died of illness later in life, we would say that I killed you.
If Kanon died, it is impossible to suggest the stabbing had anything to do with his death, as he would not have “died of natural causes”.
If Kanon died after being stabbed through the fucking chest, and his death had nothing to do with being stabbed through his aforementioned fucking chest, and this death was of “natural causes”…
Do you see why this is impossible?
I am proposing that The wound looked much worse than it was. Nanjo managed to recover {REAL NAME PENDING}, who then convinced him to lie and tell everyone he was dead.
I’m suggesting that it is a possibility that even after recuperating from being stabbed into the chest, he could have still died of natural causes afterwards with something that had nothing to do with being stabbed. Don’t see how this is impossible. It’s different from the HIV example you gave, since HIV directly affects the immune system, so dying of illness can be linked to the HIV. So it’s still a possibility that he was stabbed in the chest, and then died of something different, like if he took a nap and somehow never woke up. I know it sounds stupid, but you can’t say a theory is right when another theory no matter how unlikely it is to be true still exists, and there’s nothing that contradicts it.
Alright then, but do we both agree that these 3 reds reveal that Nanjo withheld information in Ep 1? Surely Kanon has to have recovered from the wound under Nanjo’s care (or at least be out of the danger zone) before he can die of “natural causes”.
Yeah, I’d agree with that. So basically what we’re both saying is Kanon did not die from being stabbed in the chest, and Nanjo lied about his death.
There’s no reason to argue this, it’s a devil’s proof. Sure, it’s possible Kanon did die of natural causes, but Pictoshark’s theory is possible too.
However, given that we are reading a mystery story, it really comes down to a difference of how much “love” you have for Ryukishi. Do you really accept an answer like that, especially when there’s very little evidence supporting it?
I’m more inclined to favour Pictoshark’s theory. There’s nothing wrong with accounting for possibilities, but you need to make some progress, you can’t get stuck at the “what if” stage of denying any thought.
That aside, I’m really happy to see you guys finally attempting to connect the lines to some sort of cohesive theory. Mad props to @mimsy and @pictoshark for paving the way toward some really interesting trains of thought. Who is this Beatrice, really?
Also, on a side note, I just thought you might like to think about this quote for a moment.
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I get a few things from this quote. One is that Beato probably can’t alter events from before October 4th. Anything Battler sees on the gameboard that is before October 4th is all true (except it’s covered up in magic). She can’t alter Ange’s sickness because it happens before the gameboard is set up. So what we really have to ask ourselves is when the gameboard is set up? Does it start when they’re at the airport, or does it start exactly when the day is October 4th?
When it says it would “normally” be absolutely impossible to enter the game board, it saying it’s possible, but how? Ange never officially enters the gameboard. As it’s put, she doesn’t enter the board, but surrounds it with a distance of 12 years. So under what circumstances is Ange able to enter the gameboard.
So if I’m able to take this information, I’ll try to come up with a theory. It is possible for Ange to enter the gameboard, but it is not possible for her to not be sick. Hence, Ange can enter the gameboard and be brought to the family conference in the circumstances that she goes to the conference while sick. If the gameboard is already set up on October 4th before Battler, Rudolf, and Kyrie leave the house, then Ange could theoretically be brought into the gameboard. It also doesn’t say whether or not Ange can get out of bed or is cured by October 4th, just that it starts on October 3rd, so she could still theoretically be better by October 4th and can go on the trip. I’m sticking to the original blue truth though, since being sick would make it more “normally impossible” than the theory that she can be better by October 4th.
It may be very nitpicky, but not specifying a year for October 4th unlike for 3rd could mean something or it could not.
What a lively discussion! So many good things to pick out.
[quote=“pictoshark, post:126, topic:31”]
You also have to remember that this person has to be someone that Maria would recognize as Beatrice at the end of Ep 1. Someone who was alive, and not already accounted for. To put it another way, someone who had the means to still be alive.
The only possible suspect is Kanon as his death was not confirmed. We have no room to suspect any others thanks to Beato’s red of: “I guarantee the identities of all unidentified corpses. Therefore, there were no body double tricks!”
We can suspect Kanon as his body was never seen by Battler.
C’mon guys, can we at least unite on this blue: Whenever Beatrice is seen (if the witness is not lying), it is Kanon in disguise, wearing the dress of the portrait. Their difference in cup size can be accounted for by chest padding.[/quote]
What’s interesting is I was thinking the a similar thing about the end of this episode, and came to the same conclusion. At the end of this episode, Battler has a long conversation with Beatrice on the gameboard – and unlike the end of episode two, where Battler may have drunk himself into a coma dream, he’s quite sober. She’s a distance away, and it’s raining hard, and she takes measures to make sure he doesn’t get too close. So she could be someone he knows in disguise. However, who’s left to pull off a disguise like that? At this stage Battler hasn’t had the chance yet to confirm who’s dead or missing, but when he does, the only missing person is Kanon.
That means not just once, but twice, we have a mysterious appearance by Beatrice that can be explained by Kanon not being dead. Starting to look suspicious.
[quote=“pictoshark, post:126, topic:31”]
But Maria has apparently been seeing Beatrice for years, and Kanon is only 16. Would you be saying that Kanon at maybe 5 years earlier (he didn’t work there 6 years ago, since he just met Kanon then), he was able to disguise as her and hide the size difference? Are there multiple people who disguise themselves as Beatrice?[/quote]
I can’t help one mischevious countermove … not exactly as a witch’s advocate, but an advocate for those who believe in witches. Maria is observant, but she’s also a pure-hearted, straightforward girl who easily believes in supernatural explanations. If Beatrice told Maria that ‘she’ looked like a child instead of the elegant witch in the portrait because her powers were sealed, and that her appearance would grow older as she regained her powers … wouldn’t Maria believe her? And every year Kanon/Beatrice got older would confirm her belief.
Ooh. Well, I had one immediate thought – October 3rd is the post mark on the envelopes sent to the to-be-bereaved families. If the events of October 3rd are indeed set in stone, that means those envelopes always get sent.
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I’m more interested in why you think Bernkastel would proclaim something like that with such certainty. Why is it sealed off starting October 4th? I would like to explore some of these questions, since majority of Episode 4 takes place outside the gameboard, yet we’ve mostly been talking about the ganeboards here.
Well, it’s just a quote I found super interesting while reading, though it may not appear the same to others.
Well, from the human side, October 4 is when the typhoon starts. The culprit and everyone else are on the island, and there’s no getting on or off it anymore. The world of Rokkenjima is sealed, in that sense.
From the witch’s side, there’s probably a further explanation about an isolated environment like this being low in anti-magic toxins. The witch’s side has more to account for, though, since it’s easy to imagine a kakera where the weather was different, so shouldn’t one exist? So why is Bernkastel so certain? That’s a good question.
It might be time to start questioning what this word kakera, or Fragment really means. What do you think it means, mimsy?
And no, I’m not looking for answers referring to anything outside of Umineko. Leave your Final Fantasy comparisons at the door.
Does Battler come face-to-face with Beatrice on the gameboard in episode 2? I may be mistaken, but I thought the end of Episode 4 is the first time he directly interacts Beatrice on the gameboard?