This has actually been a topic quite a lot over at the discussion boards of Animesuki. The simplest theory would be that Kyrie&Rudolf called a few days earlier to inform them that Ange won’t make it and Ange’s role being so small in the message bottle stories that she was easily removed from the stories. Not sure whether a consensus was ever reached on animesuki though.
However, the problem goes even deeper. Ange is only mentioned once in passing in EP1 and not at all in EP2. In fact, George (I think) claimed in EP2 how nice it was that all the cousins were back together. Weird, Ange is also one of the cousins. Seems rather spiteful. Or Sayo forgot to delete that line.
Ironically enough, Eva is the only one in both episodes that asked about Ange’s absence. Battler never mentions her at all (both piece and meta), if I remember correctly.
The next easiest solution is that Ryukishi kinda screwed up on that whole front or that Ange’s entire subplot only arose with the rewrite of EP3 (which however begs the question why she is even mentioned in EP1 in the first place if he had never any plans for her at that point).
The following are my thoughts on that, which included a LOT of assumptions. In fact I can safely say that “this is NOT truth”, merely an interpretation. … that I also haven’t written down in a long time so forgive me if I forget a thing or two.
This relates to Ange’s investigation and reminiscing in EP4. Ange claims that had she not rejected Maria, Sakutarou, and Mariage sorciere, “none of this would’ve happened” (paraphrasing).
The underlying idea is related to the importance of the Golden Land as a “promised land” in which Shannon, Kanon and Beatrice can be separate and full beings in love, all becoming “human”/a “real” witch by gaining “love” with their loved one (-> EP2, what it means to become human). Under that idea the message bottles had the purpose of “telling the lie that then becomes the truth”. Therefore, the Golden Land is in a way a very positive thing for Sayo, at least the moment Battler was announced to return, leaving her in an impossible three-way deadlock (as in EP6). Instead of deciding on one future, she used “magic” to make “all of them to come true”. In any case, the Golden Land is the land of release and of Kanon and Shannon becoming human (see EP2).
By rejecting and hurting Maria Sayo decided not to invite Ange at all to the Golden Land, therefore she is not part of the message bottles. Maybe on the urging of Maria.
So what would’ve happened had Sayo included Ange, but Ange got sick and didn’t attend the conference? The message bottles would portrayed events that couldn’t have happened due to Ange’s sickness, the magic would’ve been broken, and the apparent validity of the message bottles would’ve been even more dubious than it already was, what with witches and all. Thus endagering the magic of making “three out of one”. Ange wouldn’t have prevented the catastrophic events of 1986 (as portrayed in the EP7 Tea Party and Lion’s world, something would happen either way), but the “Rokkenjima Mystery Craze” might’ve not blown up as it did when the messabe bottles were made public. Because they would’ve been obviously bogus, the “magic narrative” of the message bottles wouldn’t hold up to the observable facts of Rokkenjima prime.
Whether Ange actually attended or not is the risk of the magic (see EP1). She tended to get sick, but there was no guarantee.
It is similiar to Battler’s return in 1986 causing “it all”. Yet still something would’ve happened 1986 (again: see Lion’s world), but the message bottles wouldn’t have been been released. Had he returned in 1985 a smaller incident would’ve taken place, since the tensions between the adults wouldn’t blown up for anoher year. Had Sayo written the message bottles then, the police would merely scratch their head when they find one of them on the day of the conference, especially once most members of the family came back. Again, no “Rokkenjima Murder Craze”.
Weak points are
- the convoluted logic requiring points from multiple episodes to justify Ange’s absence from EP1-2
- the necessity of Lion’s world meaning anything for Prime
- and more
Your approach works too however.
One could even combine the two I suppose, merely means that there is no risk involved.
Besides, Ange doesn’t have to be right with her assumption that her rejection of magic led to something. Just feels weird to have a character say that, and it not mattering at all.