I would be surprised if there isn’t a single mafia player between Kari Vyse and Blackrune. I’m sure that at this point at least one mafia player will try to blend in with more active players and act as a human.
I kind of doubt both of these power roles would be legit. Why have double cop when you can call it something else?
So let’s compare:
Karifean:
For:
-Pointed out some decent stuff during the first day
-his claim fits with us knowing about two-shot doctor, but that could be easily constructed
Against:
-on the second day, acknowledged Eternalmagician revived the long-dead discussion to get reads, yet voted against him without bringing that up again
-admitted to having lied. Never a good thing.
-I can’t really buy that he’d keep that ability for this long, especially with the doctor gone as soon as that. After the second day, there were plenty of people I’d have loved to be certain about.
Vyse:
For:
-revealing roles right now should be more in favor of town
-there are enough vanillas around for his role to make sense
-Most importantly, that claim and tactic would make next to no sense if he was mafia. You can predict mafia to lie, you can’t really predict town-sided players to lie.
Against:
-Well on the first day he was worried about not getting any info, which made me think he was more likely to be vanilla. Though his explanation for that works, especially if he thought he was the only cop
-there was also another weird post that was just two quotes and a nod.
Overall I find it much more likely that Karifean is just BSing around. A lot of things would have needed to happen just right for him to get outplayed like this.
Also, he said it himself, if he’s the legit one this would be some funny balance with 3 mafiosi. So in that case we might get another shot anyway then.
Unless they are somehow in fact both legit. But then I kind if doubt we’d recover from that.
And if they were both Mafia, then that would mean the Town only had Neighbor and Two-Shot Doc as power roles. I’m not sure if having three Mafia could be justified for that, so it’d probably just be those two. In which case this “strategy” would be kinda terrible.
Vote: Karifean
You know what? Fuck it, I’m betting on Kari being a witch, he’s the most suspicious right now out of the three I talked about earlier. I actually wouldn’t throw the possibility of HoneyComb being a witch out of the window either. His tactic is well… I don’t think it’s beneficial to the town side all that much. And he might be a witch alongside Kari, that could make sense. It’s all speculation of course, but I’m voting to lynch Karifean.
Vote: Karifean
See, one of us dying is going to happen regardless of wether we lynch today or not. Give me a moment to get back to that.
Before someone decides to hammer Kari (so give the final vote needed for majority), I do want to hear about his reads.
You know better to do this then for now. Better safe than sorry.
Change Vote: No Vote
Yeah let me know if you thought of something, I apologize if it was something basic I just skimmed over in my head.
Okay, back to you, @HoneyComb. Right now, we are at either 4:3 or 5:2. First, 4:3.
If we no lynch, then we get to 3:3 on the next day. Most of the time, this is considered a win for the Mafia side.
Next, 5:2.
If we no lynch, then we get to 4:2. This is Lynch correctly or Lose, if we assume again that same number on both sides means Mafia win, since a Town lynch would bring it to 3:2, and after the night it’d be 2:2.
Now, why do we want to lynch? The people that voted for someone’s death is valuable data as well and part of the game. A no lynch however does not give us this data. The voting from day 1 is virtually useless, as it was in both sides’ interest to no lynch back then. Town lynches and Mafia lynches however give us data, as a Town lynch is in the Mafia’s interest and a Mafia Lynch is in the Town’s interest. If we were to no lynch today, we would give up on information.
Ah, okay, I see what you’re getting at.
Assuming you’re ability is real though you’ve known about it the entire game, while the other players are just now learning about this round. Same thing with Karifean. I think that the bit of confusion here is that while you apparently aren’t learning anything new this round the truth is that we have already received information. That’s why I wanted us to all get together with this newly found information for the townies and use it to the best of our abilities.
I might have also misunderstood you, I don’t know. I do understand that you might want to wait to axe one of us. Since there should be another Mafioso among the people that aren’t Karifean or me, you should aim to hit that other person if you don’t want to lynch one of us today. I was against the idea of not lynching at all.
You’re correct. I’m playing a risky gamble and seeing if we could survive this without accidentally killing another innocent. I feel like it would be a waste to have two abilities revealed to us and then not take advantage of them.
Sure, glad you asked. Honestly I was half-expecting to be majority’d when I got back.
- You (@VyseGolbez) I’m slightly ambivalent but definitely leaning towards Town. I had you pinned for potential Mafia on Day 1 and early Day 2 but then when I pointed out the flaw in your approach your explanation of it being frustration towards me screwing up your bait felt genuine enough.
Regaring the revelations of today, I do expect a role of your type to be Town, but if there is some way for you to be Mafia and still get information on my role this would be nothing short of an amazing scum play. The prime reason I’m not willing to rule out you being Mafia is because I’d expect you to at least consider the possibility of me being a cop trying to stay undercover if you’re Town. But we are down to one mislynch and nobody’s come forward with information so I could see you forgetting about it in your excitement to finally have something to go on. Also, you asked me about my reads instead of just pushing for a lynch straight away, which would probably be quite tempting as Mafia. Sooo leaning towards Town overall. - @Wonderlander is acting pretty much the same way he does every game. That is to say I’m leaning towards Town out of gut feeling but have found no particularly good indicators either way. I guess the best thing I can think of is that he seems pretty relaxed, which I don’t think he’d be quite as much if he were Mafia.
- @HoneyComb I swing back and forth on. Never played with them before so I have no point of reference and they’ve been active enough not to stand out as an inactive member and yet never been at the front either. That sort of active lurking makes me think he’s likely scum, but right now I lean more towards town since they bring up strangely risky ideas for Town like the double No Lynch that a Mafia wouldn’t necessarily want to be associated with, and their questions about the game’s workings seem genuine enough. But most notably they also had some very believable verbal spats with Doldod who we’ll get to later.
- Regarding @Antra, I was willing to believe his “I’d be more invested if I were Mafia” yesterday and my position hasn’t changed much. I’m not a fan of how he acted in late Day 2 (am I the only one who felt like he went back on his apathy a bit just before it was too late?), but overall I’d still give him the benefit of the doubt. Partly because his being scum would be more or less in conflict with one of my bigger suspicions, namely…
- @Blackrune I’d lean more towards Mafia. The biggest thing that put him on the map for me were his posts in Day 2, starting with a “tracing the Mafia’s thought process” post, his post about Battler which seemed like a buddying attempt and ‘stating what’s on everyone’s mind already’ post more than anything, and then a non-sequitur post where he just straight up stated his suspicions without being prompted and without prompting others to do so. Like, talking to nobody in particular but just putting some vague suspicions out there. Also, his vote for Antra was preceded with such a typical ambivalent statement to be in an “I wasn’t entirely convinced” position if Antra flips Town.
- Finally, @Doldod is my strongest scumread by far. I’ve been a little cautious of him from the beginning since MAFIA_Battler tends to have good intuition and his initial response to his supposed “trap shutting” felt a little desperate in justifying his actions. Actually the more I think about it now the more it feels like his entire game so far, especially today, has been subtly nudging the game in a position favorable to the Mafia and doing everything not to stand out much. Half his Day 3 posts have been reminding people that this could all totally be a gambit by Vyse and Vyse and I could still be in cahoots about all this. All the while still being firmly on the lynch-me-side but still quick to say “yeah it’s just speculation” so he still looks like the good guy who questioned it all along once I flip Town.
Overall, I’d say @Blackrune and @Doldod are the most likely Mafia team. They’ve both made sure to put suspicion of Vyse back constantly in everyone’s mind today so he’ll look bad when I flip Town. They haven’t argued with one another all game but have always subtly but surely supported each other’s position without standing out as such.
So there’s you go. Those are my conclusions.
And just to quickly point this out…
Not quite correct. It’s not LyLo but MyLo in a 4:2 situation. Which means in theory you could No Lynch again before you’re in LyLo (3:2). Still, IMO it’s much better to lynch twice than to go lynchless twice then lynch once. You can look at it like this: an extra lynch is an instant unfalsifiable investigate with the results available to everyone while both cops are still around. Also, worst case scenario is ending in the same LyLo situation one day earlier, but best case scenario is killing a Mafia. Going lynchless twice is not gonna be able to top that.
You are free to suspect me of course, but regarding my behaviour on day 3 I advise you look at my playstyle in previous games. It’s just how I usually do things.
Yeah, I did forget about that when I forced you to claim. Or rather, I thought “Is there really another Cop? Nah…” But after you claimed, I did consider the possibility of you telling the truth, which is why I wanted your reads. And reading those, that possibility is a bit stronger. My suspicion for the two Mafia members under the assumption of us both being Town at the beginning of the day was @Antra and @Blackrune, which I really got more through process of elimination, but reading your thoughts, you do have a point with @Doldod. I actually planned to play the risky game of hitting the other Mafia member/one of the two Mafia members (depending on wether you’re Town or not) from the start. So I think a good bet is hitting the one we both suspected:
Change Vote: Blackrune
Well, I’ll go to sleep now. I really hope this strikes gold, because if this ends up being a mislynch, then hooh boy. That situation is not going to be pretty.
Talk about pinning this on me.
First of all, I never even tried to make Vyse look suspicious today. I just wanted to hear his side of the tale to make extra sure, but as I said myself, his gamble at the start of this day makes next to no sense if he was mafia.
And hey, the least I can do as vanilla is throw thoughts out there, even if they’re out of nowhere. We were kinda really lacking those during the second day, so why not? If that’s supposed to make me look fishy that’s pretty forced.
Naturally @Karifean suspects exactly the two other people that have already shown signs of wanting to vote against him.
I’m also pretty convinced @Antra is his partner just because his responses always came rather quickly for someone who isn’t that into this game. They’re also still the bare minimum of information, with him not giving any additional thoughts at all. Not even once. Talk about playing exactly towards your win condition.
God I’m torn between voting for Karifean and voting for Blackrune. I guess I’ll wait for others because I really don’t want to make a terrible mistake.
Hmm, to summarize, I think the following Mafia teams have been discussed:
@Antra and @Blackrune
@Antra and @Karifean
@Blackrune and @Karifean
@Blackrune and @Doldod
So, I made my choice, @Wonderlander and @HoneyComb, what do you think?
Well, it seems most suspicion lies with Blackrune, Karifean, and then Antra in that order. So we could use our abilities and attack those under suspicion and possibly clear their names! Haha, I’m only kidding. It’s become increasingly obvious to me that you guys have to decided to lynch someone rather than no one. It does make sense to me why you guys have decided to vote someone especially after you explained it to me, so I’m well prepared to think this over and come to a decision.
Even though he’s on the chopping block as well, @Antra should also share his thoughts alongside @Wonderlander.
I am more along the lines of Karifean and Antra. I just don’t think both Kari and Blackrune are mafia. I would elaborate a bit more but on the ferry about to leave so…