Recollection of a Mafia game [GAME OVER - Lovers' Victory]

Gameboards
#441

Well, last day made me trust Usagi about 90% more because saying you’d rather take the RNG when a simple justified switch would have gotten you a free kill seems too crazy from a witch perspective.

So, assuming a reasonable worst case, there are three witches.
In my opinion these are either:
Doldod+Sapphire+ mystery witch X
or:
Three out of Eternalmagician, sorceress, Karifean, and SleepingPliskin.

I’m leaning towards the latter case but it’s hard to rule out a crazy lovers gambit completely.

2 Likes
#442

Well, since I’m also leaning towards Usagi being human the question is do we finally go along with his suspicion regarding Karifean or not? We can’t really afford making any more mistakes. I personally believe that it might be worth it to gamble on Karifean being a witch, but I’m curious about what others think.

#443

So, I take that because me and Doldod are connected to one another we must be witches? I frankly can’t understand the reasoning behind that. If we were both witches, which we are not, well at least I am certain that I myself am not, why would we reveal that we are connected? Sure, it might make us look more like two scared humans or inexperienced players, but from what I see, we have gotten mixed responses regarding our revelation. And we’re already being suspected this round. Ugh… Well, if we were witches and connected to one another, wouldn’t that be a little advantageous for the human side? Especially if we are the only ones, like EternalMagician said? Wouldn’t that make the Game Master biased towards the human side to give us such roles, too? Also, I’ve got nothing to hide and if the detective, if there is one, which I’m guessing there isn’t, considering how everybody is quite confused at this point of the game, were to investigate me or Doldod, they can be certain that none of us are witches. At the very least, that I am not. I asked to be investigated the other night, but oh well, nobody was interested I guess… Also, I think the witches may be benefiting from my and Doldod’s ability and are keeping us alive so that the humans will, at one point, kill both of us. They may be even trying to manipulate the game right now, as there are already some people pointing fingers at me and Doldod. The ones pointing fingers may very well be witches aiming for the humans to do a double kill.

Anyhow, on another note, I suppose I must lay out on the table what I think of the game and of the players’ behaviour at this point. I won’t make any definitive accusations here, I’ll just say what I’m thinking now, and what I say here is likely to change as the game progresses. Anyhow, I agree with the one of you who said that Usagi is probably the most trustworthy player in the game and has kept mostly neutral for the duration of it. I think we should all listen to him a bit more and maybe stay with his neutral viewpoint and maybe go for a No Death this round? That’ll give us more time to contemplate about the game and when the witches kill somebody during the night, as we won’t be the ones doing any killings, it may give us a clue or something to their identities or who they’re aiming for. Also, I must say that I find @EternalMagician asking for the detective to come forward slightly suspicious. I mean, he is right, we really need some information now and the detective’s investigations would help, but this may also be a witch strategy in luring out the detective as the witches may be aiming and missing to kill the detective every night. Though there is definitely a downside to the detective not coming forward, as we truly do need information now… There must be a way for us to get the information and for the detective to be safe, but I don’t know of such a way yet. Also, I am also leaning more towards Karifean being a witch as he truly was leading the game the first day then became completely passive… But I won’t vote for him just yet, like I said, these are not definitive thoughts. Also thesorceress has been quite neutral this game, a good example to follow, but I feel like she’s maybe masking her real thoughts on the game? Maybe, we’ll see… And @Blackrune was quick to agree with EternalMagician on me and Doldod being witches, though that could be just a human being mislead by everything that’s happening. I’d like to hear everybody’s thoughts on what I said.

Anyhow, I truly do feel like this game has been a little too advantageous for the witches, thus a little bit boring. I’m also starting to fear whether the human side has any powers at all to combat the witches, if not, this is too unfair. We humans should all step up our efforts more, now more than ever.

2 Likes
#444

I’m half asleep yet so my thoughts are a bit cloudy, but I’ll try to share my thoughts even tho many are similar to previous ones.

First about Karifean, as it is pretty inevitable :
When I attacked him btw at first I had two thoughts. The first is that I actually did find his all over the place attacks on easy targets to be suspicious, which would’ve made him an interesting gamble if anything. Lots of information could be gathered from learning his allegiance.
But I was far more interested in watching people’s reactions about it. He’s kinda Battler you know (or at least claims to be). I think if I was a witch and Battler was a human he’d be the one I’d be most worried about ability-wise. Yet no one decided to jump on the opportunity I created. It’s possible they figured out I was watching this tho, but I really wanted to check people’s reactions to this and reasoning about it. Quite frankly, the result made me consider him far more suspicious. Add to this, along the same reasoning, that he survived two nights… and I dunno.
But here’s my worry, it’s that from the witch side it probably looked inevitable that I’d attack Karifean again on day 3 and many people would’ve the opportunity to jump on that. I’m currently wondering if I’m not set on a train track to go after him. I’d totally take the chance if it was still the second day, but right now I just want to explore other ideas first.

Second : thesorceress, and in a way, Blackrune. Well first of all I have to admit that thesorceress is kinda suspicious to me, but it’s also possible it’s a sort of naivety. I checked the rulelist again in the first post and it says the witch side can only communicate at night, or at least seems to imply so. I don’t know if this is typical of mafia as this is my first time playing this game. A confirmation of this would be nice as it kinda hinges a lot on this. First of all she is the only one who clearly stated they believed King was human and yet went after them out of “fixing fairness”. Still, I feel that alone is not enough. What I find really odd is that 1/11 chances of dying making them jump on Quixote after I pointed out that it was almost certain he was human. (EternalMagician, it’s 1/11, not 1/10, as there is also the chance of randomly getting “no death”). In comparison even if it’s low, there’s far more chances of a witch dying at random than any single individual. But when I look at the situation it kinda looks as if she was trying to find an excuse to switch to Quixote and wanted me to provide her with that excuse, and when that failed went over the death idea. Am I being paranoid or does it look like that to others as well? Now considering the communication thing, her comment at the beginning of the second day when she first voted against EternalMagician is… I dunno, like “I’m voting against EternalMagician because Karifean does it, but please tell me if I’m wrong there” sorta feels bad to me… It either sounds like she was afraid Karifean was baiting people (if Kari is actually human) or that they’re both witches and couldn’t communicate outside of this. Lastly I’m thinking if she was a witch she was probably hoping me or Blackrune (if he’s human) would jump on Quixote (especially since Blackrune first said he would do so if no majority was reached) but ended up doing it herself when she realized it wouldn’t happen. Now about Blackrune, I’m almost certain he’s human (in fact the most likely one in my case) but there’s possibility that thesorceress is human and he figured out she’d do the switch, still if that’s the case it was cut very short (less than 5 mins) so it sounds a bit too crazy. If anything from my pov the one thing we got out of the previous scenario is that thesorceress made the jump in lieu of Blackrune.
Now I’d really like to hear thesorceress’ defence on this, but quite frankly right now she has the highest suspicion meter out of all of the cast. If Karifean is a witch tho, she was one of the few who were willing to consider the idea when I bought it up - a thing worth mention.

Of course, like many aboves I really feel like Sapphire and doldod may have really confused us there, but at least currently I’m more prone to try risking things elsewhere.

Another possibility is SleepingPliskin who I have no idea what to make out of him, some of his posts have proved to be kinda confusing to me (like thinking that one between Sapphire and doldod may be a witch?) but it seems pretty weak a ground to accuse him out. It’s more likely there are some confusion.

Still when you consider everything it’s pretty amazing how much it all hinges around wether Karifean is human or a witch, so I’d really rather have had that information on the previous day rather than killing someone I was 90% certain was human… but what’s done is done…

I have another set of things I want to bring forward but I’ll post them in another post and I think it will make me sound crazy there… but whatever…

3 Likes
#445

As this is asking for a rule confirmation, I’ll answer this one. Witches are able to access their chat at all times, this is stated in this rule:[quote=“VyseGolbez, post:1, topic:1457”]
They [the witches] do know each other’s identity and get access to a private chat to discuss their strategy and whatnot.
[/quote]

#446

Ah okay thanks, I guess it’s how you wrote it specifically for the night but not the day that bought up this confusion, sorry about this.

#447

@Sapphire The thing is that your revelation makes it very unlikely that anyone risks killing either of you, so while it’s a risky move, it could’ve been a way to make you both “shielded” if you both are witches. I think the scenario everyone has in mind there is that you’d be both lying about your “link” and simply gambled that this would be a good way to protect each other. Still, just typing this out makes me feel it’s unlikely, but I don’t think anyone will be able to remove it out of their head. Just keep in mind that everyone is suspicious in this game.

Now on to my other thing…
Well I just am kinda realizing that VyseGolbez has pointed out this is essentially a 4th and 5th twilight “a la umineko” including with the stakes. Akafa being “close to King” making a perfect twilight is starting to make some eery kind of perfect coincidence there, I’m wondering if the witch side is not bound to make that kind of thing, but it makes me wonder who’d have died along with like… let’s say Krauss, considering Jessica and Natsuhi are already dead. There’s too many people there who are not fitting very well for this.

Still the crazy fear I’m having there is that if we don’t “solve” things by the “9th twilight” well "everyone dies and we’re all going to be gameover.

This is kinda crazy, I’m well aware of this heh. But I can’t really entirely stop thinking about this.

Well I need more coffee for now.

#448

Let’s see. There are 8 players alive, including possibly three witches. If we go with No Death and a double kill is possible, we go down to 6. That’s no good, even if the human side united then we’d only get a 50-50 RNG shot. (not even 50-50, since No Death is also an option and also screw the human side)
So we shouldn’t vote No Death.

@Sapphire To be fair, it’s hard to say whether there are abilities or not seeing how death doesn’t seem to reveal if they had any. I guess we’ll see after the game.

@UsagiTenpura Also not sure what to think of thesorceress and that last second switch. I could still see it for a human and she did try to convince others to switch to Eternalmagician first, but it’s equally possible all of that was just to have a plausible excuse.
Hm… figuring out whether to trust Karifean is probably more important. Compared to the first day I found his behaviour yesterday rather sketchy to be honest, like he just voted and mostly left the thinking to others.
Also his first post today feels so much like the purpose is to set up an act he’ll come forward with later.

1 Like
#449

Morning everybody. Wasn’t able to look at everything last night. Pictoshark dying kinda very much sucks.

@UsagiTenpura, I thought Karifean was the detective at the time and I thought this because he immediately voted for EternalMagician the moment that nighttime ended. I figured that he had investigated them at night, found out they were a witch, and was signally the rest of us to vote that way as well. I do not think that now, and I did not think that for most of day two, because of everything that happened on day two and him switching his vote the way he did, but I continued to vote for EternalMagician because I thought there was a good chance that they were a witch.

As for Quixote, I changed my vote because no one else would. I didn’t want to do that, I practically begged pictoshark to come and vote and let someone else to make that decision. I thought it was more likely that EternalMagician was a witch than Quixote but I wasn’t certain of that or anything because we have been opporting on basically no real information this entire game. No detective has revealed themself, no tracker has said anything, we haven’t even been able to varify Doldod and Sapphires claim and I had every hope we would have by this point in the game and it was that hope that I changed my vote to Quixote.

Because I wasn’t certain Quixote wasn’t a witch and it seemed better to me, at that point, to kill someone I was certain was either a vanilla human or a witch than let that vote go to random because the vote going to random was about the worst thing that could have happened at the time. It’s not just a 1/10 chance of me dying I was worried about (though, don’t get me wrong, that was my priority). But that could have hit Doldod or Sapphire and, yesturday at least, we were all pretty convinced that they were both humans and, if it killed one, it would kill them both. That random thing could have hit the protector, or the detective, if either of them is still alive, though I am growing steadily less convinced that the latter is still alive. And I didn’t want any of the people I was pretty certain were human, like you Usagi and pictoshark, to get out the game either. The odds seamed much more likely we’d kill a useful human, or multiple humans, or myself because I play these games to be alive in the end, then to kill a witch, or a vanilla human, and I was certain Quixote was one of the latter two. I don’t gamble like that. And nobody else seemed willing to make a decision at that point. Nobody was answering me.

I’ve explained myself on King. I know it wasn’t a choice you liked, but I’m standing by it. I’ve got an overdeveloped sense of fairness, ask anyone. And it seems like Vyse has talked about the witches.

Does that help your concerns or make them worse? Please tell me if there’s anything else I can help you with. Also, if anyone has any information please share. We really really kind of desperately need it at this point or we’re not going to win. Though I’ve got a pretty good idea on who I think the witches are at this point. I’m very aware I could be wrong though. So, facts would be very helpful. We haven’t had many in this game.

#450

Morning everyone. Ok on the subject of this game. I don’t type as much as both @UsagiTenpura, @Sapphire, or @blackrune as I keep my thoughts brief. However, I will try to give my thoughts as best to my ability. Let me go down the list:

`-thesorceress: I don’t know, to be honest. On one hand, I think she’s human mostly because her actions don’t seem as calculating, but it could be a ploy as well. Her random change just to reach a majority is fishy as well, but I understand why you would, as changing the tide of the vote can cast more suspicion on you.

-usagitenpura: I trust them a lot more after the second day, mostly because they pointed out Kari’s weird behavior (as I do not trust Kari in the slightest. You seem to try to understand the game for the rest of the players to gain perspective, but at the same time, your activeness would normally make you suspicious as a witch. However, your information is useful nonetheless.

-Karifean: Brah, Battler is my favorite character, but you seem to use the “create chaos to weed out the possibilities” and I would consider that more of a witch’s tactic. I can see it as a human tactic if you’re going for a destructive method to create discourse, accusing others with a shaky logic at best.

EternalMagician: Glad you asked the detective to investigate you, but that doesn’t erase the cast of doubt some of us have with you. You may very well be a human. If so, you’re dropping the ball with your statements. As of now, you’re
neutral to me, which is why I voted for Quixote the day before

blackrune: I get your logic with what Usagi said, however as this game has shown, the witches are crazy enough to do the “unideal” move just to cast doubt. Though to be honest, you trusting Usagi a lot more is suspicious regardless. Assuming alliances in this game doesn’t seem ideal (unless that’s your role in the case of Doldod and Sapphire). I’m more inclined to believe you’re human.

Sapphire/Doldod: Either you guys are smart risk takers or dumb for revealing your roles as lovers. This makes it hard to cast judgment on you because based on what Sapphire claims if one of you dies then the other dies. Double kill for sure and that’s a huge risk for humans. But you guys are not dead. So there’s a few options regarding that: 1. Both are witches and want to cast doubt to be a bargaining chip of sorts. 2. One of you are a witch and used the other human as bait for the witch to survive or to kill a human. 3. both are human and are confident a protector exists in this game. 4. Same reason as number 3 but the bond is a lie. Either way, I won’t judge yet, as losing two players is super counterintuitive as of now.

2 Likes
#451

Well sorry I’m not addressing the rest of your post for now, but I’d rather give myself a bit of time to think more clearly.
However I think by now it’s time we all reveal what we think about other players, so I’d like to hear your guess about who are suspicious. Believe me (at least on that), I understand how stressful and awkward that can be. I just had to go through this to point out the behaviour I consider suspicious in what you did.

@SleepingPliskin
I definitively like how you write your thoughts.

@ everyone
I think it’s probably better to consider everyone’s posts for now, tho I’d definitively like for Karifean to write something as well…

2 Likes
#453

Okay then. I really didn’t expect Quixote to flip human, hell it even made me suspect that there may be no witches in this game at all. But for the sake of the game of course there’s little point in pursuing this line of thought.

So between everyone still alive there’s most likely 3 witches. There may also be two, since the lovers pair more or less adds a free death to the witch side’s advantage and there’s been a complete lack of roleclaims so far. Still, probably safer to assume this is our last chance.

With that said, let’s address some things.

I still find it hard to believe that @Sapphire and @Doldod are witches in league with one another. For one, such a daring move is unprecedented in our games and I always prefer to assume things are as simple as possible. Though admittedly the more I think about it the more it would be a great strategy for a witch duo… makes the Doc more likely to try and protect them and makes town not want to lynch them. Time to take notes for the next game. Still, I’m very much willing to trust them unless a detective comes out with a guilty verdict on them.

Probably the biggest problem with assuming them to be human though is that it means suspects are scarce at best…

@SleepingPliskin it’s incredibly hard to figure out where you actually stand on people. Literally every single “read” line is essentially pointing out how they could totally be human, but then during Usagi’s read you point out how you don’t trust me in the slightest. I’m somewhat confused. Also how do you know that the witches make unideal moves just to cast doubt? Finally, I really don’t get what you mean, how could Sapphire and Doldod be on opposing teams, exactly? They both corroborated each other’s story, so was one of them a human that deliberately went along with what another player claimed? That seems pretty unlikely to me. As I said, a lot of things hard to figure out about where you stand.

@Blackrune is on my suspect list for the sole reason of me thinking him totally capable of flying under the radar for so long. I’m gonna have to look back over all of his posts later.

@EternalMagician’s reaction to ‘falling for my bait’ actually has had me second-guessing my initial read on him since Day 1. I’ve been burned by doubting my initial intuition before so I kept to it, but at this point (and after what happened with Quixote >_>) we can hardly afford another misstep.

@UsagiTenpura’s reads and thoughts seem pretty genuine. Never really suspected them much.

@thesorceress same as usual.

1 Like
#454

Sure thing.

Assuming if, and this is a strong if because no one has stated any confirmation for the actual state of Doldod and Sapphire’s alignment, but assuming if they’re both humans, which I am at this point, I think the witches are Karifean, SleepingPliskin, and EternalMagician.

I think it’s the lineup that makes most sense at my current area. I’m trusting you and Blackrune over Pliskin and Eternal mostly based on instinct and what I precive witches normally act like. If one of Sapphire or Doldod was a witch, I’d be more inclinded to think one of them was human, but for now this is what I am thinking. I can’t say how little I don’t trust my instincts in this game. I’ve got nothing to go on.

I don’t like playing the game like this. I like it when there’s more information on the table, but that just hasn’t happened so I have to. If you want more details on why I would suspect these three I can provide them, but honestly the reasons why they’re suspicious seem clear to me. But then again, everyone seems a little suspicious at this point.

Also, I think the idea of there only being two witches in this game is wishful thinking. This started as a twelve person game: there’s gonna be three.

Unless the game master decided to make all of us vanillas as some kind of social experiment or something which is feeling more likely every passing second.

#455

I mean, there could be two witches that are supposed to be balanced out by the fact the town has no detective, no doctor, and two people that die together. Dangerous to assume though.
Still, now everyone alive has said something and it really doesn’t look like a detective exists. Or maybe the detective was akafa. That would suck.

About “what if everyone is vanilla” conspiraciy theories, if I remember correctly the GM wanted exactly 12 players. That doesn’t really sound like the setup was that flexible, unless the mindgames are realer than real.

#456

I’m still both actively and passively trying to figure things out so I don’t want to say anything for a while btw, in fact I think the best thing I can do for now is forget about the game entirely for a few hours at least…

But considering what was put on the table by now me, karifean and thesorceress about this being a really unusual game, there’s this I want to bring to people’s attention.

I dunno I’m finding this kinda oddly stated due to “this game in particular” and it seems pretty likely we’re not under a game as normal as we may first have thought…

Since it’s my first time playing this tho, feel free to say this is ridiculous, it may very well be but it’s been bothering me for a bit now.

In any case, I’d rather concentrate on suspiciousness for now so my mind is more trying to shuffle the various possibilities of what’s going on.

I will also just add that I have an extremely bad feeling about pretty much everyone voicing that they think I’m most likely human. I’m left wondering what witches are plotting by doing that right now…

#457

I agree, that sounds rather strange… I thought that was the standard procedure in most of the earlier games? Just a random theory but I wonder if the dead players maybe can affect the game in some way.

#458

Not sure how deep we want to go down this rabbit hole, but in that case the dead would probably decide who dies during the night.
To be fair, it sounds moderately plausible that the setup needed 12 people because 18 minus 6 for the first twilight.
For now we should probably just keep going as if this is a regular game rather than spend our time wondering. We’ll see if something like that is up in three more twilights or so at the latest anyway.

#459

Question for those that say it matters a lot whether I’m human or witch… exactly what would either mean from your perspective? I mean, I know I’m human and I’m still having major troubles figuring out who the witches are =P

#460

Eh, I think it’s a far stretch to even consider that the dead are walking at night and doing the killings…

I also am baffled at @SleepingPliskin’s thoughts that me and Doldod are on opposing sides, I can’t quite understand that line of thought. If only one of us were a witch, they’d have to die at some point, together with the human, for their fellow witch teammates to win. It’s like the Game Master would have set it up so that one witch would be killed for certain, which is a bit of a disadvantage to the witch side. Though anyhow, I don’t have many thoughts on this, as I can’t follow your line of thought, as I said… But if by some chance this happens to be true, I’m just confused as to what Doldod is to do with me, if he’s a witch…

#461

There are no votes to tally, but half of the phase is now over, so you have 24 more hours to reach a decision.